Savior or predator?

That's a question Buffalo Bills fans are left to ponder as they contemplate the team's new ties to Toronto.

For the moment, Toronto is giving the Bills a much-sought shot-in-the-wallet, pumping $9.75 million into the Bills coffers for each of the eight preseason and regular season games the team will play there over the next five years.

It's a way to bolster the Bills revenues and get around the Buffalo Niagara region's stagnant economy, which limits how much the team can charge for tickets and how much it can raise from corporate sponsors and suite holders.

But in the longer run, Toronto lurks around the corner like a stalker, waiting for the right moment to snatch up the team and move it across the border for good.

Just when that day will come isn't clear, but its arrival will become uncomfortably close the day Bills owner Ralph C. Wilson dies and the team begins down its long-planned path toward a sale.

Rogers Communications magnate Ted Rogers has the money to buy the Bills and he already has a toe-hold on the franchise through his role in the Toronto deal.

Any new owner will need to bring in new revenues to justify the team's sale price, which could range anywhere from $700 million to more than $1 billion. The new owner won't find many stones that the Bills haven't already turned over locally in their ongoing search for additional revenue, so that means the focus will turn more intensely on Toronto.

The best case scenario for Buffalo is that the Toronto arrangement is such a smashing success that the team can build on its newfound niche in Canada and bring in additional sponsorship money.

It also could broaden the team's ties with Toronto to play two, three or maybe even four games in Toronto per season. That could satisfy traditionalists by keeping the Bills in Buffalo on at least a part-time basis while keeping the supply of tickets scarce enough in both markets to give the team the power to raise prices.

But that doesn't get around the uncomfortable reality that the team would be worth more to its new owner (and command a higher sale price for Wilson's estate) by moving outright to Toronto.

While Wilson has been criticized locally for highlighting the shortcomings of the Buffalo Niagara region's economy, he's largely been on target with his remarks. Buffalo is a shrinking market, and that makes it tougher on any business to squeeze more revenues out of a pie that's getting smaller by the day.

That's why there's no turning back from the Bills link with Toronto. Never again will the team play all eight regular season home games in Ralph Wilson Stadium. There's too much money at stake.

The question is whether one game in Toronto will be enough … or even two or three or four … to maintain the team's roots in Buffalo. Especially when the grass is so much greener in Toronto.

So Bills fans, get used to sharing the team with Toronto. It's Buffalo's only hope.

--- Dave Robinson

Comments

[Tom]

To go the other way on Don H's comment, it is VERY possible that the US Economy as a whole, continues to slide. Buffalo has the luxury of being recession-proof. As it is, Western NY has been one of the few areas to increase in property value the past 18 months. As major firms are forced to chop costs, Buffalo becomes a low-cost alternative to the New York City, Chicago, Boston crew. Firms like Citibank and HSBC are already moving large portions of operations here, and in a crazy sort of way, the best hope of keeping the Bills in Buffalo is to root for continued supression of the main economy.

The NFL already circulated a memo warning owners to pay down debt at all possible. As credit remains tight, new stadiums will be tough to get funded, equity loans will be hard to extend as advertising dollars can shrink in a moment's notice for the league, and owners in tons of debt can get pounded in a hurry. Oil looks like a steamroller and a full blown regional war looks possible in the Middle East. Inflation has to show itself in the US sooner or later.

All in all, Buffalo may end up turning into one of the more secure franchises as conditions continue to break down, and the mega-owners of the league are brought back to the middle of the pack. If good ol' Ralph can hang in there for another 3 or 4 years, we may find 5 or 6 other teams in trouble by then as the Bills stay steady on their home turf. This may make a local purchase affordable and truly viable for all parties involved.

You may have to pay $8.00 for a gallon of gas and need to grow your own garden....but at least we'll have football to create a diversion!

[Don H]

There are some potential problems resulting from a permanent relocation of the Bills to Toronto.

The US dollar is not going to be down forever and the Canadian dollar could be worth considerably less sometime in the future. An NFL team in Toronto would probably kill the CFL. A new stadium with larger capacity and designed for football would be a necessity in the near future.

However, none of these appear significant enough to discourage the move. Perhaps we will return to the days when the only professional football played in the Buffalo area was an annual exhibiton of the pre-season variety.

[Matt]

"Sharing the team with Toronto, it's Buffalo's only hope...." Buffalo HAS no hope, unless maybe you are looking to muscle in on the gangs' drug-dealing. Rochester and Syracuse are not much better; regionalizing the Bills would not help much. For one thing, let me just say that I live near the 'Cuse and there is ZERO interest in pro sports in that town. Unsurprisingly, the university dominates sports fans' attention; high school sports also seem to be more popular than they are in WNY. (I am a pro sports fan so it leaves me underwhelmed... but hey, at least I found a job around here!) The lack of major-league pro teams probably has something to do with that, but I seriously doubt many people around here will be interested if the Bills play a game a year in the Carrier Dome.

This scrambling for new markets over the last decade or so, despite whatever spin the Bills want to put on it, suggests only one thing: Desperation. If WNY can't support the Bills anymore -- or, more importantly, if the ownership thinks it can't -- then WNY will not have the Bills much longer. And all signs point to that happening. It'll be another kick to the corpse that is Buffalo. Everyone who clings to the Bills even more surely than the rural folk "cling to guns and religion," will have to find something else to cling to. Those gangs I mentioned would be more than willing to sell them a lil' something.

Oh, and by the way, who the heck is Dave Robinson? It would be nice if there were something on this site to introduce him. Or has he been around awhile and I just missed it?

[john]

"So Bills fans, get used to sharing the team with Toronto. It's Buffalo's only hope."--I think it's more like Toronto will be sharing with Buffalo (if at all). One game per season at Buffalo, the rest in Toronto. Whoever buys the team is smart enough to amass a fortune of a billion dollar$. He didn't do that by selling his products or service for half price.

Trying to keep the team in Buffalo is a losing proposition. The region is still losing over 5,000 people per year. The ONLY chance to keep NFL in upstate NY is to merge with the other upstate cities. Although you always hear how bad upstate is, Rochester and Syracuse are not losing population, and over the last couple decades have grown. I'm sure that Toronto will give the team a new moniker, and the Bills will be gone forever. Regionalizing the Bills in upstate is the only way to save the "Bills." I live in Rochester, and I can tell you that the Bills are NOT our team. Of course the sportscasters highlite them because of their proximity to us, but the majority of the people have other teams.

It kills me to hear you guys say you've done everything you can in NY when you have only scratched the suface in Rochester and nothing in Syracuse.

Who do you want as your team? The "Toronto Triumph", or or "The Bills"? Regionalize in upstate NY so we can all feel "ownership" of the team. There is alot of "corporate" in upstate too. Rochester has 3 Fortune 500 Headquarters.