By now everybody knows the connection between Bills coach Chan Gailey and Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder, who was recruited by the Bills coach out of high school. Earlier this morning, Florida State's offensive coordinator, James Coley, posted the cryptic message on his twitter feed: "One word ... Buffalo."
Last week, many will remember, Bills great Andre Reed, who is scheduled to announce the 34th overall pick, speculated on twitter he will be calling Ponder's name. The post was subsequently removed. The problem is whether Ponder will last to No. 34. (The Buffalo News is among many that don't have him in the top 32. However, a bunch of mock drafts do. The Dallas Morning News pegs him all the way up at No. 10 to Washington.) Even if he isn't taken among the top 32, it's hard to imagine New England not getting a big offer during the day on Friday to deal the 33rd pick to some team needing a QB.
How much would it cost to move up from 34 into the mid-20s? Of course, it depends on how many teams are bidding. According to the "Draft Value Chart" made up by Jimmy Johnson a couple decades ago, the 34th pick is worth 560 "points." The Bills' third pick, No. 68, is worth 250 points.
So theoretically, the Bills could move up to No. 21 by giving up No. 68. No. 21 is worth 800 points. No. 20 is worth 850. The value of 34-plus-68 is 810. That's presuming, of course, all teams follow the exact value of the JJ chart and there are not too many bidders to move up. The guess here is it might cost more than just No. 68 to move up all the way to 21. However, any team moving down to 34 would be in an attractive spot. Even if New England trades out at 33, there's a fair chance some other teams might want to move up to 34. So a team could parlay No. 34 into a bonus pick.
Bottom line: The bottom half of Round One could be wild.