Thinking four years ahead

ERIE, Pa. … Palin '012.

   No, that was not a typo. That was what was on the minds of some of the 6,000 or so people who jammed the convention center here Thursday to hear Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin deliver the same sort of show that's made her a star on the stump in this year's campaign.

   Pundits are, well, stumped at why she's such a star, but if you saw her, you'd understand. She rips into Democrats and touts the GOP's small-government philosophy with a folksy eloquence that contrasts totally with those cringefest interviews she did with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric.

   Those interviews have left some pundits thinking Palin is the Dan Quayle of 2008, but if you ask her fans, they'd say no, she's the Republican Barack Obama of 2012.

   This is America, where presidential campaigns never really begin or end, so it's not to early to ask: Who's the best Republican choice for 2012?

   … Jerry Zremski

Comments

[Libby56]

Jerry, Jerry, Jerry. "Pundits, are, well, stumped as to why she's a star" ? Half of us aren't puzzled, at all. You should watch a little more (or at least some?) Fox News (gasp!) and read Townhall dot com and stretch your mind a little outside the same ole same ole liberal agreefest. (And no, you can't really count George Will as meeting your daily minimum requirement for conservative opinion.)

[Barton Keyes]

Whether Palin becomes more than a star to a core base of Republicans will largely depend on what she is able to accomplish in the next four years--as a Governor or as a Senator who replaces Alaska's only Congressional felon Ted Stevens.

[mark from Buffalo, NY]

ROCKSTAR? funny when Obama was getting large crowds the GOP called him a rockstar. funny how they can use this term when they want to. She is NOT a rockstar, she is a corrupt politician( see Troopergate, and abuse of state funds for family trips, etc). I really hope she runs in 2012. I will enjoy the GOP primary watching the likes of a Mitt Romney or others ripping her apart with all this controversy surrounding her.
Shes nothing more than a weather girl. Congratulations President Obama!

[Mike]

Good gosh, Jerry, give it a break will ya'. We are so sick of Campaign 2008, my trigger finger is bathed in ice due to all the mute button clicking I have been doing whenever a tv ad comes on. The last thing I want to read about is Campaign 2012. By the way, what's up with people abbreviating dates like 2012 as '012? Why not just '12. Back in the last century did we write Campaign of '992 instead of '92? Same thing verbally, I hear "oh 12" for 2012. Again, what's up with that?

[carl]

Jerry not soooo fast

Iraq isn't the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain's gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.

The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama's heels.

Zogby had Obama ahead by 12 points last week - now it's down to four. His margin in the Rasmussen poll has dropped from eight points to three in the last few days. Gallup shows only a two-point difference.

In each news cycle, Obama is on the defensive - staving off accusations of closet socialism and trying to wriggle out of his once overt advocacy of income redistribution. "Spreading the wealth around" has become the anti-Obama slogan - and might become the epitaph for his candidacy, just as "brainwashed" was for George Romney and "Where's the beef?" was for Gary Hart.

And, as we head to Halloween, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's image is returning to haunt Obama. Yes, McCain refused to use the issue in his own campaign - but independent groups like goptrust.com are using funds from tens of thousands of individual donors to run ads featuring Wright and his relationship with Obama. Just yesterday, a tape surfaced in which Obama described Rev. Wright as "the best the black church has to offer."

The double dose of Obama's support for spreading the wealth around and his affiliation with the toxic Rev. Wright are eroding his once-formidable lead.

If the stock market doesn't send us all into shock again, the election could be very close - with the undecided vote looming large. The key question is: About whom are they undecided?

At the height of the financial crisis, voters couldn't decide if McCain was really a maverick or just a Bush clone. But the spotlight has shifted: It's no longer McCain who is caught in its glare, but Obama.

As the Democrat moved convincingly ahead last week, voters began to seriously consider what kind of president he'd be. Bush and McCain seemed increasingly irrelevant as people pondered whether they really want to trust Obama with this kind of power.

By this point, the nature of the undecided vote has likely shifted from people who are torn between wanting change and worrying about Obama to people who have basically decided not to back Barack but haven't sufficiently collected their thoughts to come out for McCain.

Then there's the so-called Bradley effect - where white voters lie to pollsters and say they are backing the black candidate when they're not.

To date, it's been a myth: As The Wall Street Journal reported, Tom Bradly had lost his lead in the polls by the time California voted on his bid to become governor. But it may be real this year.

Undecided voters may be reluctant to say they're not voting for Obama. They may be concealing their real intentions by saying they're undecided. (They might even not have come to grips with their intentions themselves.)

High turnout may also be a wild card. On the surface, it seems sure to bolster Obama's chances as large numbers of poorer, less educated, younger and minority voters turn out to vote for the first time.

But the swelling turnout may have gone beyond this social outreach. And, as it does, it can help McCain. After all, white voters back McCain by double digits. If the contest inspires them all to vote, Obama will lose.

So we approach Election Day with the possibility of a rerun of 2000 plainly before us. McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close - and we'll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

[Hank]

Palin shows 2012 aura in Rust Belt?

Are you kidding me? Look at the credentials.

You will never here about her again after Tuesdays election.

[BobbyCat]

I disagree with your premise. I don't think the pundits are stumped at all as to why Palin is a star. Palin is the Daisy Duke of the GOP- a sexy no-nothing who appeals to the Ignoramus Americus wing of the party. They believe that Jesus will return to battle and kill the non-Christians, because the Bible says so. The media are afraid to say these things for fear of a backlash.
Those Americans who read and can pass a 5th grade civics class are resented by the Palin folks. Just when you thought nobody could be dumberthan "W", and dig us into a deeper hole - along comes Caribou Barbie.

[mark from Buffalo, NY]

Hey Hank did you copy and paste everything you sent from some other news source? Nice try. Sarah Palin is so dumb she thinks "Twelve" is more than one "Twelf" LOL
what a joke she is. Byeeeeeeee

[aguy7]

Hopefully Alaskans, like lower 48ers, will see that their governor is a megalomaniacal phony. The picture of her at a podium emblazoned with the slogan "America First" gives me cognitive dissonance. It's double speak. Her promise to lower taxes appeals to those who want all the benefits of citizenship with none of the responsibility. She's in a symbiotic relationship with those who don't want to be taxed with thinking: she tells them what they want to hear--never mind that it's unrealistic--and they put her in power. I betcha' she wouldn't cut taxes so much that she'd have to take a lower salary, paid for by taxes, if elected. Her only demonstrated ability is inciting a mob. If Alaskans have learned anything from this campaign, they, like lower 48ers, won't elect her again.

[jim mykins]

I can only hope the GOP tries to run her in 2012.She is like listening to a female version off George Bush, with a little bit of stepford wife thrown in.

[carl]

Did you all see that Obama's good friend Bill Ayers actually dedicated a book to Sirhan Sirhan ? Obama isn't qualified to shine Sarah's shoes. This is a guy that never ran a lemonade stand. If he wins the American people will see in short order what this guy really is, Vegas odds give him less than 50% chance of completing his first term. When this country see's him and Pelosi and Reid pulling bone head deals the country will drag him kicking and screaming from the white house. Obama, Biden, Pelosi, Reid, Ayers, Wright and Khalidi will wear thin in the eyes of this country real quick. Palin understands you dont raise taxes and punish success. She is drawing more to her speeches than Obama because the people get it. Obama outspent McCain by 5 to 1 what would the #s look like if they both spent the same ? Why is he not much further ahead' what's up with that ? I wonder what things would look like if McCain out spent Obama by 5 to 1 ? It wouldn't even be close and you know it.
Obama is the Elmer Gantry of our time, you watch the people turn on him if he wins.

[AdelleX]

Palin is *not* drawing more people to her rallies, than Obama! Just last weekend, Obama drew crowds of 75,000 and 100,000 in RED STATE TERRITORY. Neither Palin, nor McCain, are seeing crowds anywhere near that large. As we head into the home stretch, the campaign is now being waged on Republican turf -- states where Bush won. McCain *ought* to be easily ahead in these states, but he's trailing in pretty much ALL of the battle-grounds (again these are all Bush states, save PA, where Obama has a nice lead in all of the most recent polls).

Indeed, Carl, you'd better check all those polls again, because Obama ticked up MORE today in all of the major polls, except for the FAUX News poll (and even in that cooked poll of right wing zealots, Obama still leads). The state polls look even worse for McCain. The gap is not closing; McCain is just trying to fool the rubes, so they won't stay home. Sure, miracles can happen, but that's exactly what McCain & Palin will need now.

Palin's support is about as deep as her intellect (not too deep). For some strange reason, the far right wingers seem to love her -- but that's not enough to win a national election. Most Americans find her to be a nasty, lying, self-important hypocrit; in fact, the polls all suggest that she is now a HUGE drag on the ticket.

I hope that the Republicans *do* run her in 2012 (if she isn't impeached in Alaska before then for all of her OWN shady dealings)... If Palin is on the national Republican ticket in 2012, Dems are sure to win.

[The Real Hank]

(Notice the misspelling in the other Hank).
With the 2008 presidential election concluded prcatically, the 2012 election is underway. But how many journalists do not get that the GOP is fading from view? The Democratic majority will be contested, but not by the fractured Republicans. A new, well-heeled, smart third party will emerge. They can leave out the Mitt's and Rudy's and Mike's. This will be real power politics, socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Rush and Sean are going to lose listeners by the millions. Palin? SNL gave her what she needed.

[BrutalHonesty]

All the people who insult Sarah Palin in a blog are just jealous. If they ever had to run in a national election what would people think of them? If they are so qualified and know all, why haven't they been selected to run for vice president or elected govenor? Because they would only get one vote from themselves, legends in their own mind. Voter turnout not rally attendance matters election time.

[carl]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

[Libby56]

Dear Real Hank, Oh my goodness. Only on NBC and in baby blue state, where's-my-check-can-I-have-an-extension-on-my-unemployment-where's-my-aid New York, is the GOP "fading" from view. And the only poll that really matters is next Tuesday.

[Jayne]

Dear Politicians (Party affiliation not important),
Please stop trying to infuse your tired campaigns of empty promises with some pop culture by appropriating music from artists who generally do not support your views or the lies that you tell to placate the distracted American people who know more about sports and American Idol than politics. Several current candidates have received cease and desist orders from various artists who do not want their songs associated with politics.

**Note to Tonawanda Sabres jersey owner:
Why did you allow your jersey to be signed by someone who has *nothing* to do with the Sabres organization or the NHL? Nice way to ruin a hockey sweater!

[wil]

Ridiculous, It's amazing how Republicans can criticize and throw blame viciously, yet accept no blame/responsibility for their poor stewardship our country for the last fifteen years...I have never seen so much HYPOCRISY in my life... Boo-hoo, Obama is spending too much money, he is trying to buy our country. News Flash, the Republicans are the party of money and I'll bet they have outspent the Democrats and any other political party over the course of the last 20 years in total money spent to buy the best politicians money can buy...Just ask Ted Stevens or Bob Ney, or Duke Cunningham or Tom Delay..etc....The list goes on and on....
DON'T VOTE FOR A RAT VOTE DEMOCRAT!!!!!!

[carl]

Obama spent more money than any candidate in history. His words when he started his campaign [ spending by candidates should be on an even level, otherwise you run the risk of one canddate in a sense buying the election] remember him saying that ? He outspent McCain 5 to 1, why is he not much further ahead ? Why has McCain moved ahead in the Zogby polls ? Are we in for a big surprise ? After Ocarter spending almost a billion $$ you wouldn't think the race would be so close.
I think it's sinking in that a vote for Ocarter is a vote for Pelosi, Reid and socialism. The little old guy can still win,,ha ha ha ha ...

[wil]

Please post the polls that show McCain ahead??? It's
just not true! Wishful thinking maybe? The American people are rejecting the terrible policies the Republican led GOP and Congress have imposed on us the last fifteen years...
All early voting results show Obama ahead by a 60 t0 30 edge... Thank God the American people are starting to wake up ....

[get real]

zogby is the most notoriously & regularly wrong national pollster out there. zogby is also using a model that over-weights conservatives. his polls swing ridiculously from day to day. even in his tracking poll, obama is still ahead by five. obama is also significantly up in all other reputable national polls. the average lead is 4 to 8 points. it will probably tighten, as it always does, but if obama wins by 4 to 8 points, it will be an electoral landslide. here's the best website going for poll information & poll analysis:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

[get real]

from the fivethirtyeight site, here is a nonpartisan statistician's response to the bogus zogby poll story sited by a poster below. note that the story comes from drudge. that right there ought to tell you all you need to know.:

"Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers. "

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

[get real]

bad news for the republican poster below who was touting drudge's bull. today's gallup poll just came out. obama is up by 11 w/ registered voters & he's up a big 10 pts in both likely voter models, even the old conservative weighted model. there is no narrowing in the polls. here is today's report from gallup www.gallup.com:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

obama is also up by five, broadening his lead, in today's rasmussen tracking poll, which also uses a slightly conservative model:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[carl]

The perfect storm it's liberty vs Socialism the old patriot is at the helm of the SS Liberty facing the huge wave of socialism, this little ship of state is facing this wave. Riding this wave are the worst this country has to offer the Obama's, Pelosi's Bill Mahar, Michael Moore, the anti american groups like black panther's racists, american communist party. The bottom 50% that contribute less than 3% of taxes, the 40% that pay no federal taxes. Yes this wave is set to wash over America as we know it.

The little old guy at the helm of our little ship of state with his side kick Sarah won't give up without a fight. The little ship of state [the best of America] has been outspent by 5 to 1. After the hopeaholics see that they were sold empty lies by an empty suit they will ride B. Husein Obama out of town on a rail. History has a way of dealing with those like Obama, Reid, Pelosi and Joe the Biden and if it means being tarred and feathered and run outta town so be it.

[wil]

Tar and feathered???? You must be as old as McCain! Take your Metamucil and go back to bed old man......