The false promise of off-shore drilling

OK, OK, gasoline is expensive. I spent the weekend outside Pittsburgh and almost felt like I was getting a bargain paying $3.99 a gallon (there's a lower state gas tax south of the border).

The high prices have given Bush 43 a pretext to call for a major relaxation of restrictions put in place when Bush 41 was president on drilling off both the Pacific, Atlantic and Gulf coastlines. High gas prices have some of the public, as well as the politicians who pander to it, saying that perhaps it's time to start drilling where no man has gone before. After all, it will mean lower gas prices. Right?

Wrong.

But don't take my word for it. Let's hear from Dubya's own Department of Energy, in a report issued by its Energy Information Agency.

"Access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017."

So, that means no help for another nine years. Well, at least then, we'd have a lot more oil, right? Well, actually not. Domestic production would increase only 7 percent by 2030, the agency said.

Yeah, well, even that increase would have to help drive down gas prices, right? Not really.

"Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant."

Further examination shows that much of the rest of the argument for offshore drilling also doesn't hold up.

There's the claim it would help make America less dependent of foreign oil suppliers. No, we're beyond hope in this regard. The. U.S. has 2 to 3 percent of the world's known oil reserves, but we consume 25 percent of its oil. You do the math.

Then there's the claim that the tree huggers in Washington have cut energy companies off at the knees in their efforts to find more domestic supplies. The Center for American Progress notes in a nifty checklist of myth-busters that the number of drilling permits issued by the federal government jumped by 361 percent between 1999 and 2007. Moreover, energy companies are sitting on some some 4,000 undeveloped oil and natural leases in the Gulf of Mexico alone.

Critics believe the debate over offshore drilling diverts the attention away dealing with real solutions, which involve energy conservation and development of alternative energy supplies.

As the San Jose Mercury News said in an editorial over the weekend:

"We can't drill ourselves out of this mess."

Moreover, it would be a waste of money if we could, the Merc said:

"The billions of dollars it would cost to pull finite supplies of oil from the bottom of the sea instead should be invested in renewable energy sources."

A New York Times editorial last week last week was even more dismissive: 

"This is worse than a dumb idea. It is cruelly misleading. It will make only a modest difference, at best, to prices at the pump, and even then the benefits will be years away. It greatly exaggerates America’s leverage over world oil prices. It is based on dubious statistics. It diverts the public from the tough decisions that need to be made about conservation."

The outcome of this debate - keep looking for more oil or step up the effort to develop alternative energy resources - has particular import for Western New York, as parochial as that may sound.

We're well positioned to be a renewable energy center, particularly if the national government decides that alternative fuels are the way to go. We're already good to go with hydropower. We rank as the 4th windiest urban region the nation, which would make us a significant player in the wind-power industry. The major local chemical companies produce a lot of hydrogen, which could be the basis of a hydrogen industry if someone was to take the initiative. And the planned opening of the Globe Metals plant in Niagara Falls next year could make us a hub for the production of solar panels.

Comments

[Art Klein]

James Heaney makes good points on all counts. I personally think that Bush seeks to leave us with the false impression that all along he was not listened to and had warned us of the crisis.

But Heaney fails to mention that conservation is another leg of the energy animal that is respected but not emphasized. The Adoption of specific programs like the Sierra Club Cool Cities plan and use of LED lighting for all public areas, lighting surveys in our public schools and replacing every incandescent bulb with modern bulbs can reduce energy needs by at least a third.

Government officials can increase use of public transportation and bicycles to do their business. government can increase telephone and video conferencing.

If each of us reduces our energy use in a responsible manner we eliminate the need for new power plants of any sort.

But it isn't going to easy nor too popular. Several of us are trying to get LED lighting looked at locally. Ann Arbor Michigan reduced its electric power budget by over 40% and paid for the retrofitting to LED lighting in the second year of use.

Local officials listen to us look at the reports and wonder how long it is to lunch. The distance from where we are and where we should be is measurable by comparison to Germany and Denmark. We are a pretty sorry bunch when you see those figures.

We better get smart. This is a matter of another Doomsday Clock ticking and its final impacts are not pleasant.

[BobbyCat]

Good piece by James Heaney. At a time when straight talk about energy is required, especially the need for increased cafe standards, alternative energy and other means of conservation, the Bush/McCain camp is giving us talking points, read spin, about more drilling.

Locally, there is much that can be done. Eg: we could reserve three lanes of Main Street to two wheel vehicles - bikes,scooters and cycles. (May thru Nov)
But that's a radical idea in conservative old Buffalo. Maybe in a few decades....

Can you name the elected leader who is in the forefront of energy conservation? Sadly, no name comes to mind.

[Don H]

There are a lot of figures being thrown around by those opposed to additional drilling off shore and in off-limits areas on shore. If additional areas for drilling were made available,"domestic production would increase by only 7% by 2030." What guarantee is there that alternate sources of energy production will do any better by that date?

Many environmentalists as well as home owners are against windmills, refineries, atomic energy, etc. For example, green activists shot down a proposed 20,000 acre wind farm in Valley County, Montana. They complained last fall that 400 foot turbines would disturb a nearby wilderness area.

One other thing: oil companies are not going to drill every lease presently under contract. They test first. If those probes indicate not enough available oil on a site to make a profit, they are not going to spend money. That's simple economics that anyone should understand. Instead opponents of drilling keep reminding us that a lot of leases are not in production. More statistics to bolster their views.

One thing is certain: had drilling been permitted 25 years ago in prohibited areas controlled by the US, we'd be in better shape today, whether by 7%, 10% etc. Oil is going to be a primary energy source for a long time. More drilling, and yes, more conservation are positive things that can be done now. Dreaming about alternate primary energy sources solves nothing.

[AdelleX]

Thank you, Mr. Heaney, for offering a bit of important (if sobering) good sense! These days, nobody seems to be telling "the whole story" when it comes to this issue. Proponents of drilling are offering nothing but half-truths and false promises -- and, in desperation, the tapped-out rubes are blindly swallowing the lies and rhetoric.

This is the very sort of issue-education that the media should be offering to the general public. I wish that the media would engage in *more* of this public service truth-telling and fact-finding.

[mark]

James, off-shore drilling might not drastically cut gas prices in the future but it will help prevent them from surging even higher. You mention the need to develop alternative energy sources. That may very well be the case. However, as a scientist I can pretty safely say we are not even remotely close to having a viable alternative. The idea one could be on the near horizon is just an environmentalists dream. Drilling now will help prevent an even worse gas situation in ten years, because we will still need it.

[BobbyCat]

Here's an idea. As long as our State and County legislators are frozen in a time warp and choose to do nothing about capping property taxes or reducing our energy footprint or making alternative energy solutions actually happen or making health care a reality for the society at large, then I propose a name change. Let's change the names of Buffalo and Erie County to "DEADWOOD", in honor of our elected officials who talk a good game but deliver next to nothing. Then we could vote to install the two Party Chairmen as the King and Queen of Deadwood - a Mardi Gras celebration of sorts. (Which chairmen gets what title, hasn't been worked out yet.)

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[tom]

As I listen to the oil pricing hearings on Cspan so far, every expert says with emphasis, there is NO unusual oil shortage causing the unnecessarily higher prices.

They all say unanimously, remove the majority of speculating and the price could go down IMMEDIATLY.

Republicans are screaming over and over, we need to drill more. The experts say drilling more could take an average of 5 or more years before we see any price drop.

Republicans created these excessive profitablity problems with their loopholes and lies. I think I’d rather believe the experts.

[Mark]

We have collectively put our heads in the sand since 1973 on this issue and we have had both Republican and Democratic Administrations and Congresses to lead us out of this. It is amazing to me that they can pass legislation to honor Tim Russert quickly but they cannot deal with this issue. I am certainly not knocking Mr. Russert, just pointing out how quickly things get done when they need to get done. As John McCain has called for, we need battery technology now, with it hybrids and cars like the Chevy Volt take us to the next level quickly, without it we tread water. We need to be looking at clean diesel technology, it is the quickest way to get small cars to 50 mpg. In the 1970's we had big cars, and the market shifted to small cars and we were unprepared, now we have big
SUV's clogging the lots, and the market shifted over night. Hopefully we will learn our lesson this time.

[Mark]

We have collectively put our heads in the sand since 1973 on this issue and we have had both Republican and Democratic Administrations and Congresses to lead us out of this. It is amazing to me that they can pass legislation to honor Tim Russert quickly but they cannot deal with this issue. I am certainly not knocking Mr. Russert, just pointing out how quickly things get done when they need to get done. As John McCain has called for, we need battery technology now, with it hybrids and cars like the Chevy Volt take us to the next level quickly, without it we tread water. We need to be looking at clean diesel technology, it is the quickest way to get small cars to 50 mpg. In the 1970's we had big cars, and the market shifted to small cars and we were unprepared, now we have big
SUV's clogging the lots, and the market shifted over night. Hopefully we will learn our lesson this time.

[Mark]

We have collectively put our heads in the sand since 1973 on this issue and we have had both Republican and Democratic Administrations and Congresses to lead us out of this. It is amazing to me that they can pass legislation to honor Tim Russert quickly but they cannot deal with this issue. I am certainly not knocking Mr. Russert, just pointing out how quickly things get done when they need to get done. As John McCain has called for, we need battery technology now, with it hybrids and cars like the Chevy Volt take us to the next level quickly, without it we tread water. We need to be looking at clean diesel technology, it is the quickest way to get small cars to 50 mpg. In the 1970's we had big cars, and the market shifted to small cars and we were unprepared, now we have big
SUV's clogging the lots, and the market shifted over night. Hopefully we will learn our lesson this time.

[carl]

Jim Heaney
Please stop with the left talking points. You say it will take till 2012 for leasing to begin, you say it will take until 2017 to start production. If this is true it's because the Dems. have been blocking every move towards energy independence. You want change how's this cancel summer break for our politicians. Demand leases to be drawn in 60 days, demand drilling to begin within 1 year with huge incentives for early drilling. I understand this couldn't happen for offshore but this could apply for anwr and other easy to access sites. Start a fastrac approach to building new refineries now. Obama says it will take 22 years,,,please stop it,tell the hard nosed oil wild cat drillers of the 50s and 60s that it would take 22 years to get their product to market. If this country would adapt a WWII mindset it could be done in short order. We have billions of barrels under our feet and 76% of Americans want to drill now. We can have it all and this country is ready to rally for a just cause. When Irans nuke plants are leveled gas will hit $10.00 overnight we must start now to rid ourselves from mideast oil now. If the Dems. would of allowed drilling 10 years ago we would be pumping millions of barrels today. When Japan attacked pearl harbor and killed over 3,000 troops wipeing out our navy what did we do ?
We flipped a switch, Detroit changed from autos to tanks and airplanes in record time, we defeated Japan and Germany in 4 years putting together a force that was the envy of the world.
If we listen to the likes of Obama and his crew yes it will take 22 years, I say throw him under the bus like he did his grandmother and move forward like only America can do. Frankly I'm sick of him and his wife ripping our country apart everyday.

[BobbyCat]

Carl, you post these quasi-historical analogies, then end your rants with thinly veiled racial remarks. When somebody calls you on it, you recoil with fake surprise. Racist??? Who me??? Never!!

Is it possible for you to state your opinions without the racial taunts? Is that too difficult for you? This 1950's Kaisertown racial hatred act is 50 years out of date and it's sickening. Or is it all about bringing attention to yourself by playing Peck's bad boy. In any case, it's pathetic. Please...can it.

[Texas Kid]

Let's see. Economics 101 states the law of supply and demand. As supply dwindles, there's upward pressure on prices as demand remains the same or increases. Interesting to see Buffalo people talking about economics. Like asking UB about a winning football program, or asking folks in WNY on how to achieve a growing economy. Would you ask the Bills and Sabres about winning championships. As long as China and India will drill and drill offshore of the U.S., we will always be hostage to foreign oil interests. We wouldn't be able to reign in oil speculators either since its foreign oil. Domestic oil we could if Congress has enough backbone. Or for that matter what West Texas Crude dictates. (Up $2.76 today) I think what a lot of these anti drilling articles are doing is just trying to "prep" the public into thinking $4.50/gal gas is what we should expect to pay. That's good for Texas, bad for WNY, but then again, hey, thanks for keeping our economy here booming. Check out Houston's want ads right now. You've already "given" us one Stanley Cup and two Super Bowls, why not more of your money. It helps pay for our kids college endowment funding so we can keep tuition rates lower as well as provide the best in college athletics. Altertnative energy is great, but when is some of that NY educational talent coming up with it. You certainly pay a lot for it. Look at the bright side of things, now that Hillary is freed up now, she can provide the her constituents in WNY with some really innovative ideas to lower energy prices. Then again, I wouldn't hold my breath. Well thanks for pumping the old fuel pumps for us, we appreciate it..y'all.

[Carl]

Bobby cat & Jim Heany

Bobby your cries of racism against any who disagrees with your candidate is tired and old and not worthy of a response.

Jim' You had to dig deep to support you article,,but the San Jose Mercury news ? Please..If you need help doing research drop me a line. For every article you can find to justify your view I can send you 10 that agrees with the 76% of Americans that want to drill.
I'm pleased that less than 25% see it your way. If your pandering to the left you will get plenty of support in these bloggs but you may want to include how the majority see it on a national level.

[Carl]

Bobby cat & Jim Heany

Bobby your cries of racism against any who disagrees with your candidate is tired and old and not worthy of a response.

Jim' You had to dig deep to support you article,,but the San Jose Mercury news ? Please..If you need help doing research drop me a line. For every article you can find to justify your view I can send you 10 that agrees with the 76% of Americans that want to drill.
I'm pleased that less than 25% see it your way. If your pandering to the left you will get plenty of support in these bloggs but you may want to include how the majority see it on a national level.

[James Heaney, Outrages & Insights author]

My post has generated quite a bit of comment, some of which I'd like to respond to.

For starters, Carl, whoever you are, I suggest you put you full name to your comments. I do. Putting your name to your words adds credibility. Otherwise, you run the risk of coming off like a guy sitting at your computer in your underwear who still lives with your mother.

As for the substance of the comments who want to blame it all on liberal bias, well, the damning statistics I quote come from the U.S. Department of Energy. I hate to let the facts get in the way, but ...

As for poll results, yes, there is a poll out there that shows more than half of Americans support off-shore drilling, if it means lower gas prices. The problem is, the drilling will not result in lower prices, at least according to the Department of Energy. Thus, the spin being put on the poll results is disingenuous.

[Carl]

Jim Heaney
Thanks for joining the frey:
I promise I won't engage in any personal attacks or attack your writing skills.
My Mom died years ago but thanks for asking.
I find it interesting that you and Obama are quoting the Bush enery Dept. as gospel only because it helps make your case. When was the last time Obama agreed with anything that came from the Bush camp ?
I don't care where those numbers came from there wrong and flawed. Joe Biden says 10 years others say less who do we believe? Are you saying that if we were producing millions of barrels of domestic oil a day we wouldn't see a marked difference ? You do understand that these leases {by Law] are for our consumption not for export.

Listen'' I gotta run, my doorbell just rang and I gotta throw some pants on.

[monica]

Carl- You got them on the run. Thanks for giving me the biggest laugh of the week. I actuallyrun to my computer at least a dozen times a day to see what Carl said. Your comments are not only spot on, but your writing skills are wonderful. The Buffalo News should hire you to write some columns. Keep up the good work!

[AdelleX]

Mr. Heaney,

Again, your insights are precisely on target in regard to this issue. The American public *deserves* to know the truth about this matter, and not simply Fox News distortions (I believe that the "poll" to which Carl refers *is* a Fox News poll... taken by a Fox News dork, roaming around the streets).

In any case, please simply ignore Carl/Monica/Karen/et.al. He posts right wing diatribes daily and then approvingly replies to his own posts under assumed monikers. I assure you, though, that he does NOT live with his mother, as Carl recently celebrated his own 90th birthday. Don't be too hard on old Carl, though. True, he is rude and completely delusional, but that's probably the result of the meds that he's on (they keep him sedated at the home, except for Saturday night, when they allow him to play penuchle). Really, you can only pity a poor, ignorant dinosaur, like Carl, as he has no friends in the world and no teeth in his head.

In all seriousness, though, the American public deserves to know the complicated truth (the *real* facts, not the pro-drilling propaganda) about domestic drilling, reserves, oil company profits and their *real* relationship to gas prices. So please, please keep on swinging, Mr. Heaney.

[Carl]

Monica
Thanks for the kind words, I knew it would only be a matter of time until Adellx would accuse me of being you, but I guess the news can check that and I encourage them to do so. Adell you seem to be searching for the truth, we'll you've come to the right place, how can I help you SWEETIE ?

[carl]

Jim Heaney
How's this for a good topic' The False Promise Of Corn Based Ethanol''
It seems Obama visited every county in Iowa promising many billions in subsidies for corn ethonal. It seems even back then it was known it was a bad bet because it uses more energy a 2/1 trade off but Obama still supported it. It is fact that Obama used the private jet of the Archer Daniels Midland Co. which is the nation's largest ethanol producer.. McCain advocates eliminating the multibillion-dollar annual gvt. subsidies.

Obama favors the subsidies some of which end up in the hands of the oil companies he rallies against.

McCain wants to remove the 54 cent a gallon tariff from Brazil on their sugar cain ethanol an 8/1 return higher quality fuel so we can meet our quota and save our gvt. billions and keep their hands off our food source.
Seems obama is beholding to many and get this Tom Daschle serves on the boards of three ethanol companies.
Jim it seems the verdict is in it wasn't such a great idea why is Obama still pushing this failed plan ? Now this would be a great topic. Most of this info came from the NY times article printed 6/23/08 titled OBAMA CAMP CLOSELY LINKED WITH ETHANOL.....

[JOHN]

I am going to throw out a 'blurb' if you will, to stimulate thought on this whole big mess we as a nation are in concerning energy, oil, etc..

First off...NO AMOUNT of drilling in the Gulf, Arctic, or Washington DC for that matter, will curb the rising (and will continue to rise) prices of energy in this country now or in the far future. The same can be said for ethanol, gasahol, corn oil, hydrogen, soy drippings, electric cars, solar, or wind energy. The mega rich energy companies will see to it that we are held hostage to some form of energy, no matter what it is, to satiate their precious bottom line. For those of us who have been around awhile ...WE HAVE HEARD ALL OF THIS PROPAGANDA BEFORE....Same scenarios, just another decade!

Secondly, NO MATTER who becomes President...that person will be beholden to powers that would shake the most hardened person to his knees. AND if someone REALLY tries to shake up the system, to improve it for the benefit of all, we only have to look to our great leaders of the past,(the 1960's in particular) who were movers and shakers, and met a way too early demise.

NOW, for the juice: For many decades the US and other allies (these allies change through the decades), have posted economic sanctions on a myriad of different countries for one reason or another to get "these countries in line" for numerous reasons, founded or unfounded. These decisions obviously do not come from 'one' person in the US, or UN. It is a consortium of world leaders/big business who 'decide' what country or group of people should be 'punished.' The same 'group' who controls the BIG money..IE: interest rates, food prices, insurance, etc..

Ponder this...When the US went into IRAQ against the wishes of MANY Countries and their respective leaders (see: consortium of world leaders), we did so at a peril, I think we never believed possible! That one day 'Economic Sanctions' would be imposed upon us in the form of 'Economic Terrorism'...which is what we are experiencing now. The United States is in essence getting b slapped for not "being a good boy.'

Who suffers..NOT OUR LEADERS....But obviously the common people of our great country who are just trying to keep our heads above financial water. JUST like all of the previously referred to countries who have been sanctioned through the decades by the powers that be.....And just who suffered there: certainly not the leaders...BUT THE PEOPLE LIKE YOU AND ME !!

What goes around has come around full circle....BUT the circle isn't complete yet. It is about half way from being completed. The question here is: How much more can/will we take?, before our beautiful bubble bursts? I pray for the best !