The once and future Democratic majority in state Senate
One party rule: coming to a state near you - real near you.
An analysis of population shifts since this decade began suggests that Democrats are poised to gain as many as six seats when legislative districts are reapportioned after the 2010 census. That would give them an ample margin to untangle the 31-to-31 tie that has stalemated the Senate for three weeks.
"There is a very large population growth downstate in New York City and Westchester and a very large decline upstate,” said Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College, who conducted the analysis for The New York Times. “Basically, this is a rerun of 2000 ...”
Given the Republicans’ slippery hold on the Senate seats they carved out in New York City (last November they lost one of four and almost lost another) and upstate’s declining share of the state’s population, Dr. Beveridge said, “it’s possible that after redistricting the Senate would have 38 Democrats and only 24 Republicans.”
In Nassau and Suffolk Counties, the population stayed the same in the 1990s, but was expected by demographers to rise after 2000. Instead, the population of Long Island, where Republicans have lost two of the nine seats since 2007, has shrunk. Even bigger declines were recorded in traditionally Republican strongholds upstate.
So, bottom line, Dems control the Assembly and they will likely control the Senate, as well, thanks to more downstate representation.
That leaves the governor's job as the only open seat, so to speak. Republicans have won the seat aplenty, but with the state going increasing blue, that will be more and more of an uphill fight.
Then again, the GOP has one thing going for it - the Democrats.
And why do we even bother to have legislatures form Western NY when we are going to have the 3 men in a room from NY City make our decisions for us? Why not just save the money, time and heart break of bothering to elect people that have absolutely nothing to do and no say in anything except to agree at the appropriate time with what they are told to agree with from the people down state? Why bother paying for them to come listen to the people from Western NY, get our hopes up that they will actually do something for us, then watch them go to Albany and sit on their hands with their mouths shut unless their party leaders (from downstate of course) say it is time for them to speak and then they will only get the opportunity to vote on what these downstate party leaders feel is appropriate to bring up for a vote? And people are ok with this?
Posted by: Dave | June 30, 2009 at 10:54 AM
We have a number of veteran legislators who have filled the seats for us for decades and have yet to bring home the bacon(unless you are into pretty parks) or show any sign of leadership. One in fact has the edge of having a parent who served. What has that gotten us? The population decline is decades old news. Used to be at least 39 congressional seats as well.
Posted by: Mark | June 30, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Dave & Mark..Both comments totally correct..All Our representatives here in western ny....have the same title.."ITS ABOUT ME "....perks benefits and no hard work but sit in a hall of dysfunctionals....and when SHELDON SILVER says jump....they all answer HOW HIGH BOSS MAN...only salvation for western ny ,,remove all representatives in office ...remove all career politicians,,,and remove nyc from the state...or continue on the same course....even the governor never had the guts to stop democRATS from nyc...until these objectives are met, removal of career politicians and nyc city,,,as they say FORGET ABOUT IT...why do you think baby joe and suzie kissed butt for patronage jobs....as population declines and places close.....studio arena liquidating...and taxes continue to increase ..western ny isnt going anywhere but DOWN
Posted by: frquarter | June 30, 2009 at 11:50 AM
Couldn't have said it better myself frquarter!!!
Posted by: Dave | June 30, 2009 at 01:17 PM
Senate Democrats refuse to stand for the Pledge of Allegiance, but stand for a moment of silence to honor pedophile and castrati Michael Jackson.
It's not getting better here folks.
Posted by: pgr88 | June 30, 2009 at 02:43 PM
WNY would get better representation in Albany if they stopped electing republicans or democrats (in name only) to office.
Posted by: K9 | June 30, 2009 at 02:52 PM
In what parallel universe does a political party that makes up only 25% of the registered voters statewide have business controlling one of the houses of the state legislature.
Over 50% of NY voters are registered Democrats... The GOP and the other minor parties combined make up the balanced.
The GOP has held the Senate for over 40 years and the Governors seat for a signifigant part of that time.
That is how we got where we are.
After 2010 reapportionment, even if we let a non partisan commission do it, there is no way to gerrymander NYS Senate districts that will result in the Senate GOP being close to having as many seats as they now have.
The GOP statewide has about as much prospect of being part of government as a Republican being elected Masten District Councilman!
Posted by: TJ | June 30, 2009 at 03:24 PM
I'm going to look into trying to vote for some of these guys from NY City rather than Western NY. If enough of us from Western NY find a way to do this, maybe they will look out for some of our interests because the people we put in there from Western NY sure as hell aren't.
Posted by: Dave | June 30, 2009 at 04:01 PM
Right on TJ
Posted by: SS | June 30, 2009 at 05:11 PM
If you read the new article about a weird maneuver in the Senate this afternoon, it mentions that Senators are given free food and cans of soda in a lounge off the Senate floor.
I'm pleased to see that we provide the same kind of benefits (free food and drink) for Senators that all of us enjoy at our workplaces.
Posted by: Dan | June 30, 2009 at 05:44 PM
Hey I 've got an idea''' how about not voting the same back in office every election.
And maybe the Buffalo news stop endorsing a stable full of political hacks.
That's probably a dumb idea because that's what we do around here. Here's another idea' call 1 800- U-Haul,,,,frquarter you said it all ,,remove all representatives in office ...remove all career politicians,,, vote out all incumbents, every one of them.
Posted by: jd | June 30, 2009 at 07:40 PM
Dave and Mark are on the money.
There is no need for any analysis if we're ruled by a 3 man oligarchy. What's the point. It's acedemic. That is not democracy,its not a republic. It's B---S----! And we all know it.
The Senate 'coup' is nothing compared to a real coup - when outraged citizens occupy both chambers of the legislature. That day is not far away, I'll wager. We can only hope and pray its a non-violent takeover. 3 men in a room will not stand, not when so many GI's left their blood on so many battlefields fighting for our freedoms. Nobody fought for 3 men in a room. That's what we fight against. Why don't these men in Albany understand that? I don't get it.
Posted by: BobbyCat | June 30, 2009 at 09:27 PM
After going on 65 years I have finally gotten enough sense to leave the "God forsaken, totally hopeless State of Dysfunction also known as the State of New York"! I will listing my house this summer and be gone by fall!!!!! GOOD LUCK New York, you will need it with the "Court Jesters" in Albany!!!!!
Posted by: john | July 01, 2009 at 08:07 AM
Hey TJ, how is that Democratic representation in Masten district doing to improve the quality of life? With a Democratic stranglehold on all three men in the room is that what we can expect all of NY to be like?
Posted by: AC | July 01, 2009 at 09:14 AM
This is a great time to be an Independent. But I speak for myself and maybe a few others. It's very freeing to not be betokened to a albatross Democratic Party nor to a vestigal Republican Party. The "Next Big Thing" politically is "under development." True Independents will see it first. Tax-and-spend all the Democrats want, or burn-and-slash all the Republicans want. It doesn't make a difference to true Independents now. We are prepared. But you can't just call yourself an "Independent" if you are in hock to either party. You have to have achieved Insulation.
Posted by: Hank | July 01, 2009 at 11:19 AM
John, doing the same as soon as possible...as far as ny state,,THERE ISNT ANY REASON TO HAVE ELECTIONS HERE ANYMORE AND VOTE...the present and past career politicians,,have never helped western ny other then getting a title as armpit of ny state.since nyc controls the state budget and western ny politicians,,,,and democRATS will gain more seats,,,,why bother to vote anymore...nyc controls everything....to stay in ny join the unions become a democRAT,,humiliate yourself and pray for a state job or patronage job...look at the benefits,,,good tax free pension,,,,aides helper work your way up the ladder get a cell phone and driver...and just keep those lips juicy....need to kiss some major butts on the way up...case closed
Posted by: frquarter | July 01, 2009 at 12:07 PM
Who is more the fool? The fool or the fool who follows? If you think you are taxed without representation and you live in a part of the state that is in decline with no hope in sight, then WHY STAY? Either run for office yourself and devote your life to fixing your town/county/state or get the heck out! The reason for the population decline is that all those around you are figuring it out...
Posted by: Former Buffalonian | July 01, 2009 at 12:25 PM
So much to address....First, to the poster who wants to vote for NYC representatives...You can do this, but you must move to the district where that representative resides... So move to NYC and you can get your wish....
Secondly, To put the blame on unions is just ridiculous.. Unions represent only 10 percent of the entire American work force today...(For the record i am not in a Union.. wish i was!) For the mathematically challenged, this means that 90 percent of American workers are NOT IN A UNION..
You overlook the real criminals here, the greedy corporations (Banks, military contractors, Health insurance)... If you took the time to be open-minded and look at all the fact,s the evidence is irrefutable...I would submit that because of corporate welfare, our country is in the bad shape it is today... If these companies paid their fair share of the tax burden we wouldn't have such a huge deficit... It's a fact.. Look it up here....
http://www.ctj.org/corpfed04an.pdf
Also, the poor and middle class pay a unfair amount of taxes.... But don't take my word for it.. Read the facts yourself..HERE...
http://www.itepnet.org/wp2000/text.pdf
Here is some more good stuff...
http://www.itepnet.org/
I know a lot of people won't look at the links... Ignorance is a choice not an feature you are born with... If you must refute any of my assertions please do so with facts and thoughtful commentary, not ad-hominem attacks, semantics or hyperbole....Thank you....
Posted by: wil | July 01, 2009 at 12:44 PM
Yo wil... This is WESTERN NY. More than 10% of the population in this area is non-skilled, over paid, un-educated union members. Look it up.
Posted by: Dave | July 01, 2009 at 02:48 PM
BobbyCat wrote: "The Senate 'coup' is nothing compared to a real coup - when outraged citizens occupy both chambers of the legislature. That day is not far away, I'll wager."
We can only hope!
Posted by: Buffalo Libertarian | July 01, 2009 at 04:50 PM
Yes, the percentage is higher in the public service sector..I think the percentage I've seen is maybe 36% are in Unions....
But there is a reason for that...You cannot outsource jobs like teachers, firemen, policemen... I suppose you could try the Republican way and privatize everything.. This way you could eliminate the unions by outsourcing the jobs to people so broke they will work for eight bucks an hour... To teach your kids.. Police your streets...The reason for the decline of union manufacturing jobs is simple...they all went out of this country...Now the number i cited was correct...Out of all the people working in this country, only 10% belong to a Union..By the way... is there a Union for the overpaid CEO'S and their high level cronies?
Posted by: wil | July 02, 2009 at 01:38 AM
Let's see:
Policemen, Firemen and teachers are, according to Dave,"non-skilled, over paid, un-educated union members"
Wow!
I bet this makes Dave feel really safe and protected and confident in those future generations who are being taught by those unskilled, overpaid and uneducated teachers union members! (Where's Phil rumore when you really need him!)
Reminds me of an old Chinese proverb, "sometimes it is better to keep your mouth shut and let everyone think you're stupid than open it and confirm it!
Posted by: Chinaman | July 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Chinaman, no, you're twisting what Dave wrote. He wrote "This is WESTERN NY. More than 10% of the population in this area is non-skilled, over paid, un-educated union members."
There's around 20% or 25% of workers in WNY who are unionized (as of a few years ago WNY had highest percent in U.S., maybe still does).
So the 10% Dave referenced is near half of that amount who he says are non-skilled and overpaid.
That sounds about right, doesn't it? What percent would you suggest? Isn't it a big impediment to the local economy?
Posted by: Earth to Chinaman | July 03, 2009 at 01:05 PM
No Chinaman it does not make me feel safe, protected and confident in our future generations. Why is it that the top scoring people aren't the ones promoted if they aren't the right color when it comes to the police and fire exams? I would rather the top scorng people were in charge. Why can a teacher get away with what Peoples did at McKinley and have the union protect her. Why did I have to lay off 5 of my employees rather than have them sit around here all day and get paid for doing nothing or why couldn't I give them "state worker" bonuses before I had to let them go? Because I, like about 75 to 80 percent of the people in this area live in the real world, not the unionized one that appears to control the state and everyone running it. But then I guess all of these are new found freedoms for someone named Chinaman and all of the freedoms you are used to in China. The unions are the downfall of this area. We are the largest unionized area in the whole country and what has that got us? Absolutely nothing. Not even Obama who has never seen a bailout that he didn't back can buy us out of the mess we are in. Oh thats right... its not in the contract. We'll have to negotiate.
Posted by: Dave | July 06, 2009 at 04:54 PM
The bailouts started under Bush.... Don't let a little thing like facts get in the way of your rant though...
Posted by: wil | July 07, 2009 at 01:54 AM