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The once and future Democratic majority in state Senate

One party rule: coming to a state near you - real near you.

Reports The New York Times:

An analysis of population shifts since this decade began suggests that Democrats are poised to gain as many as six seats when legislative districts are reapportioned after the 2010 census. That would give them an ample margin to untangle the 31-to-31 tie that has stalemated the Senate for three weeks.

"There is a very large population growth downstate in New York City and Westchester and a very large decline upstate,” said Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College, who conducted the analysis for The New York Times. “Basically, this is a rerun of 2000 ...”

Given the Republicans’ slippery hold on the Senate seats they carved out in New York City (last November they lost one of four and almost lost another) and upstate’s declining share of the state’s population, Dr. Beveridge said, “it’s possible that after redistricting the Senate would have 38 Democrats and only 24 Republicans.”

In Nassau and Suffolk Counties, the population stayed the same in the 1990s, but was expected by demographers to rise after 2000. Instead, the population of Long Island, where Republicans have lost two of the nine seats since 2007, has shrunk. Even bigger declines were recorded in traditionally Republican strongholds upstate.

So, bottom line, Dems control the Assembly and they will likely control the Senate, as well, thanks to more downstate representation.

That leaves the governor's job as the only open seat, so to speak. Republicans have won the seat aplenty, but with the state going increasing blue, that will be more and more of an uphill fight.

Then again, the GOP has one thing going for it - the Democrats.




Politics | State government
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