Outrages & Insights

Day 2, AD (After Davis)

It's pretty safe to say it's all over but the shouting, and believe me, there will be shouting.

The first business day after Brian Davis pleaded guilty to pocketing campaign contributions and lying to about it to the state Board of Elections, his colleagues on the Common Council got busy making him a persona non-grata.

They stripped him of all his committee assignments and pretty much said said he's finished. Or, in the words of Mickey Kearns of the Sounth District:

"Based on his guilty plea, he has violated state public officers' law, and he's no longer a Council member."

Update: Davis' support on the Council is down to zero as of Tuesday afternoon. About the only pol we haven't heard from is Mayor Byron Brown. Why are we not surprised?

Council leaders on Monday met with Acting Corporation Counsel David Rodriguez to ask him about what it takes to replace Davis and how soon the city law department will render a legal opinion to get the ball rolling.

Perhaps it won't be long until Davis can compare notes with Eliot Sptizer. I mean, they've both got time on their hands, right?

Already, attention is turning to who will replace Davis for the remaining 25 months of his term.

Here's the intelligence I've picked up the past couple of days:

The Council would appoint a replacement, after presumably conducting interviews of candidates and fielding a non-binding, but usually accepted recommendation from the Democratic committeemen for the Ellicott District.

If you're assuming Brown's surrogates in Grassroots control committee seats in the district, you'd be wrong. I'm told neither Grassroots nor another faction headed by Arthur O. Eve. Jr. hold a majority of seats. There's also a number of committeemen independent of those two camps - swing votes, if you will.

Prospective candidates are already coming out of the woodwork and the field could grow to 10 or more. Names being bandied about include Barabara Miller-Williams, who used to hold the seat and now serves in the County Legislature; firefighter Byron McIntrye, who previously ran against Davis and who narrowly lost a race this spring for the Board of Education; and a couple of other former candidates for the Ellicott seat, William Trezevant and Kenny Robinson. I'm also hearing Marilyn Rogers, who works for the Buffalo Municipal Housing Authority.

A lot is at stake politically.

In a sense, there is an anti-Brown majority on the Council - five of nine members - although when push comes to shove, most of them go along with the mayor. But politically, the majority is not on the same page as the mayor, and they realize that if they appoint another like-minded member in the Ellicott seat, they would have a veto-proof majority, which could shake things up. To say nothing of ruining Steve Casey's day.

Adding yet more intrigue are preliminary discussions among some Council members about reorganization that would change, or reaffirm, key leadership positions. Among the titles up for grabs in Council president, which is kind of a big deal, even moreso with Brown's uncertain future.

Yeah, the mayor was just re-elected to a second term, but that doesn't necessarily mean he is long for City Hall.

He's mentioned as a possible running mate to Andrew Cuomo, although not in this New York Times story from yesterday. Furthermore, his administration is being investigated by everyone this side of the KGB and, as the commerical goes "Hey, you never know."

If the mayor leaves in mid-term, the Council president succeeds him. So, the reorganization takes on special importance, and the appointment of a Davis successor is a factor.

There's another reason why the Ellicott appoint is important. Because the district is arguably one of the most important in the city.

It includes all of downtown, the inner-harbor (i.e. Bass Pro site), Erie Basin Marina and LaSalle Park, the Buffalo Medical Campus, and neighborhoods adjoining downtown on the lower west and near east sides that are in various stages of decline and revitalization.

See for yourself.

In other words, if there's any district seat in the city where you want someone who is on the ball, someone who can influence decisions that impact the entire city -- indeed, the region -- it is Ellicott. And no one worth a hoot has occupied the seat since Jim Pitts.

So, here's hoping the the committeemen, and then the Council, go beyond politics in deciding who will fill the seat.

Don't blow this one, guys and gals.

Pathetic voter turnout speaks volumes

There are some 439 elected officials in Erie County. And they seemed to account for half the voters who bothered turning out to the polls Tuesday.

Turnout was a rock bottom 24 percent in Erie County, and even worse just north In Niagara County, where an estimated 18 to 20 percent of voters cast ballots.

Odd-numbered years are considered "off years," when neither federal offices, starting with the president, nor state, including the governor, are up for election. Turnout is historically lower, but this year it's in the basement.

Consider these trends:

In Erie County, some 141,000 voters went to the polls Tuesday, judging by the votes cast in the high-profile races, including county sheriff. That number is likely to climb to 150,000 or so by the time a few unreported election districts and absentee ballots are counted. By contrast, nearly 450,000 voters cast ballots last year. OK, that was a presidential year, when the vote is high, but consider the last off-year, 2007, when some 250,000 voters went to the polls.

It was even worse this year in Niagara County, where about 23,000 voters cast ballots, compared to 50,273 in the 2007 off year and some 96,000 last year, when Barack Obama and the old guy who ran with Sarah Palin squared off.

Here's a quick chart with the details.

And here's Bob McCarthy's story with more details, including:

The last time countywide races for sheriff and comptroller headed the ballot was in 2005, and turnout was 46 percent. The same lineup in 2001 produced a 30 percent turnout, which then was considered ultralow.

There's lots of nuances that come into play that help explain the variation in vote totals over the years. In 2007, for example, the races for mayor in Niagara Falls and Lockport pushed up the count in Niagara County. But there was a big issue on this year's ballot -- a proposal to downsize the County Legislature.

There were plenty of contested races in Erie County this year -- although I've got to note that candidates seeking 66 of 155 seats were unopposed -- and it didn't move a whole lot of folks off their couches.

In Amherst, turnout was 30 percent. Hamburg, 25 percent. Orchard Park, 24 percent. I could find a turnout of better than 50 percent in only one town or village in Erie County

The numbers were lame for county legislative races, ranging from 19 to 29 percent where there were contests.

Yeah, the absence of an election for mayor -- Byron Brown ran unopposed after winning the Democratic primary in September -- gave a lot of city voters license to stay home. But you'd think that an electoral push by Chris Collins, with his anti-urban agenda and the state of the county holding center, would have been enough to get more city folks to the polls to vote for sheriff and comptroller. 

All this gives lie to the argument that voters are in love with the notion that the smaller the government, the better, that the government closest to the people is better, etc.

Nope, when it comes to town supervisors, clerks, highway supervisors, tax assessors, council members -- to say nothing of school board members -- two out of three voters just don't give a hoot.

The ones who care include the pols themselves, who view government as a jobs program -- for them, their relatives and cronies.

Coupled with the success Kevin Gaughan is having with getting voters to downsize their town councils, I'd say Tuesday's dismal turnout underscores that voters believe they're paying for more government than they want.

Perhaps it's time they put down the bag of potato chips, shut off the TV and do something about it. 'Cause the politicians sure aren't.

(As for analysis of Tuesday's results, the Buffalo Pundit is worth a read. And don't forget to follow this blog and my reporting on Facebook and Twitter.)

Collins and Brown -- the sequel

So much for Chris Collins' rant about Sheldon Silver the anit-Christ being "unscripted" and "off the cuff," as claimed by his flak.

Artvoice reports:

When Erie County Executive Chris Collins called Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver an anti-Christ last Saturday night at a Republican dinner, it wasn’t the first time he’d pulled the line out of his bag.

He recently made the exact same comparison to a group of Buffalo State political science students, who were visiting the Rath Building. Two Buffalo State faculty members were present.

Geoff Kelly goes on to say:

But it’s clear to me that his remark comparing an orthodox Jew to Hitler and the anti-Christ was not “off the cuff” or “unscripted”; it was not a momentary lapse in judgment. The joke is part of Collins’ repertoire. He has used it more than once, who knows how many times.

Which begs the question -- anyone else hear Collins deliver this punchline?

This comes from an aspiring career politician who was quoted last week as saying he didn't want to name any Republicans who might be career politicians because "I don't want to get into name-calling necessarily."

Come to think of it, Byron Brown has an unusual double standard, as well.

The mayor who was too busy to meet last week with the U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development when the cabinet member made a rare visit to Buffalo is the same fellow who took time out from his busy day a couple of years back to help Leonard Stokes out of a jam.

Interesting.

And telling.

Speaking of telling, let me share this photo taken last week under the category of "a picture tells a thousand words."

Let's see, we've got HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan, Congressman Dan Maffei, Senator Chuck Schumer, and, on the far right, Syracuse Mayor Matt Driscoll.

A mayor meeting with a congressman, senator and cabinet member. Imagine that.

Two "class" acts

Let's see. We have Bryon Brown stiffing a member of President Obama's Cabinet in a rare visit to Buffalo and Chris Collins calling an orthodox Jew an "anti-Christ" and mentioning him in the same breath as  Hitler.

We know how to pick 'em in Western New York, don't we?

Let's start with Collins and a report from Bob McCarthy:

In a story first reported by the New York Daily News, the county executive -- who is exploring a run for governor next year -- referred to French seer Nostradamus' predictions that the world would experience three "anti-Christs" before the apocalypse. He then said it's generally accepted the first was Napoleon, the second Hitler, and was "pretty sure" the third is Silver -- an orthodox Jew.

Collins said it in the context of Silver as part of Albany's "three men in a room" budget process, in which the two legislative leaders and the governor make most budgetary decisions.

The remarks are already sending shock waves through the state's political establishment, and Collins has reacted, calling his choice of words "a poor joke."

"While we may disagree strongly on policy matters, my statement had no place in our political discourse and I am truly sorry to both the speaker and to anyone else who I may have offended," he said.

Are we talking poor taste, or something deeper?

I don't know, but let's examine Collins' recent track record.

His county attorney is steadfastly trying to block efforts by state and federal officials to find out what's happening at the county prison and holding center, in the face of escapes and allegations of prisoner abuse.

In his effort to elect four Republicans to the County Legislature, and tip the balance of power his way, he has aligned himself with the local Tea Party movement that includes some extreme right wing voices, as documented by the Buffalo Geek.

And, through the budget process, Collins has taken aim at numerous programs aimed at the poor and proposed a three-year funding freeze for a library system that is already hurting.

Does all this sound like a guy running county government like a business? Or a right wing ideologue?

Hey, I report. You decide.

On to the mayor.

Who do you see in the picture below. Or, more precisely, who don't you see?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's see, there's Brian Higgins. And Shaun Donovan, secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and urban Development. And Chuck Schumer. All three flew in from out of town. Also pictured on the far right is, no, not Chris Collins, but Anthony Armstrong, of the Buffalo office of the Local Initiatives Support  Corp.

Why was Donovan here?

Schumer said the secretary came to Buffalo to learn more about the plan that he and Higgins are shepherding in Congress.

In other words, our lawmakers are hustling to set up a program that would likely help Buffalo, among other places, and the guy in a position to write the check wants to know more.

Brown was supposed to participate in the secretary's daylong visit. But nooooooooooo. He was too busy, according to Peter Cutler, his spokesman.

What was so important that the mayor couldn't meet with Donovan?

"It was just a busy day," Cutler said.

Busy with what?

"Some issues at the office."

No big deal Brown didn't take time out, Cutler assured me.

"He's met with the HUD secretary before."

But have near fear, Brown sent Deputy Mayor Donna Brown in his place.

"He wanted to make sure we had a presence."

I'm told by someone in attendance the deputy mayor showed up more than half-an-hour late.

Nice. I'm sure than made a good impression.

Now let me get this straight. The nation's top urban affairs official makes a rare visit to Buffalo and the mayor is too busy? The same mayor who shows up at every ribbon-cutting ceremony, who treats crime scenes as a a photo op?

Please.

I'm not in the guy's head, so I don't know for sure why he blew off the fellow in a position to bring a lot of money to the nation's third-poorest city.

But I do know that Brown was irate in March when HUD issued a report ripping the city's management of its block grant program, to the point where he called D.C. to demand that HUD silence Steve Banko, head of the Buffalo office. And I think it's pretty safe to assume hizzoner wasn't happy when HUD's inspector general agreed in July to audit the city's use of block grant funds.

So, was the mayor too busy, or still in a snit?

As I said earlier, I report. You decide.

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"Democracy" in WNY and drunkeness in Orchard Park

Today's theme is numbers.

Let's start with Bruce Andriatch's column on the upcoming elections. There are 155 elected positions on the ballot. No fewer than 66 seats are uncontested,

They include seven of nine town clerks. (I tell you, if Iraq voters could elect their own town clerks, Dubya's mission would truly be accomplished.)

In Clarence and Wales, not a single elected seat is contested.

And then there is the matter of Alden. As Bruce notes:

Number of polling places that will be open in Alden on election day: 4.

Number of polling places open in Alden when voters cast ballots on whether to downsize the Town Board from five to three members: 1.

Number of hours polls will be open in Alden on election day: 15.

Number of hours they were open the day of the downsizing vote: 8.

 Number of Town Board and town supervisor candidates facing opposition in Alden this year: 0.

But, remember, folks, this is the "government closest to the people" that pols all over WNY insist must be preserved. It's for our own good, they tell us.

They call this democracy.

Hit, it, Bruce: 

Let's move on to the happenings in and around One Bills Drive.

I attended the Bills game yesterday, tailgated beforehand and everything. First time I'd been in a couple, three years. Was reminded why I've stayed away.

It was ugly on the field and worse outside the stadium, as Gene Warner detailed.

We've got one stolen wood carving of Thurman Thomas.

One fan who was arrested at the game only to escape police custody and later found sleeping it off in the basement of a nearby house he had broken into.

And one Clarence teen-ager who was charged with 16 criminal counts for his drunk-driving, hit-and-run antics after the game.

It's a wonder, really, that something like this hasn't happened sooner.

I mean, everything within a mile of the stadium is a huge open container law violation - among other things. Have we set the record yet for world's largest public urinal?

Boy, that would get us Talking Proud, wouldn't it? You can't buy that kind of publicity.

Behavior that would not be tolerated the other 355 days of the year is accepted when the Bills host games. And this is because???

You can't get away with his kind of behavior at Sabres or Bisons games. But for some reason, it's acceptable for 75,000 or so mostly overweight white guys to get drunk before Bills games and obscene during them before they climb into their pick ups and drive home drunk.

OK, I exaggerate. But you get my point.

Can you imagine if, say, 75,000 black guys showed up for a rap concert and behaved like Bills fans?

Why, Tim Howard, Chris Collins and Cheryl Green would have nightmares just thinking about how many blankets and tooth brushes they would have to withhold from prisoners.

 

Chris Collins sounds a few campaign themes

The state Democrats are in town and just by coincidence, according to Chris Collins, the county executive held a press conference outside the Dems' meeting at the downtown Hyatt in which he ripped into David Paterson, Andrew Cuomo and the rest of their party.

Elizabeth Benjamin of the New York Daily News has the details.

Collins comes off as sounding like a potential candidate for governor, provided Rudolph Giuliani doesn't run.

Reported Benjamin:

Cuomo and Paterson, Collins charged, have "accepted failure" in New York, which is why the state has the highest taxes in the nation, and is the "least business-friendly state."

"That is Andrew Cuomo’s definition of acceptability," Collins said disdainfully."They have no message they have no vision they accept failure and are proud of it."

Tell us what you really think, Mr. Collins.

He also took a shot at Cuomo over his approach to government consolidation.

As a parting shot, Collins slammed Cuomo's signature issue -- the government consolidation bill that Gov. David Paterson signed into law in June. The county executive called the measure "laughable," noting it exempts school districts and authorities.

"Talk about smokescreens and shell games," Collins said. "He is laughing at the public. He is getting lauded for doing something, and he did nothing."

This coming from a guy who hasn't exactly embraced regionalism, consolidation, whatever you want to call it, in our neck of the woods. Couldn't even bring himself to support a countywide planning board, a rather mild step towards removing the many government silos in the community.

Collins' comments make me curious as to his vision for the state when it comes to bringing order to the chaos caused by a bazillion cities, towns, villages and school boards.

Meanwhile, back at the Democratic pow-wow, Cuomo, who did a recorded robocall for Mayor Byron Brown during the final days of the mayoral primary, heaped praise on hizzoner, reports our own Bob McCarthy.

Brown was chosen to introduce Cuomo at his morning speech. And the mutual praise Brown and Cuomo heaped on each other only heightened speculation that the mayor could be a candidate for lieutenant governor with Cuomo.

"He is only getting better; he is a star on the rise," Cuomo said of the mayor. "He is energetic, professional and is delivering to the City of Buffalo. That's why we love him."

Of course, Cuomo's public integrity unit is just about the only investigatory agency of consequence that is not investigating the Brown administration and his political allies.

Pigeon is just a part of our political problems

Buffalo has four major centers of political power. The piece Bob McCarthy and Mike Beebe did Sunday on the failure of the district attorney to prosecute Steve Pigeon got me thinking about how well this community is being served by those in power.

Let's take a look, starting with the aforementioned Steve Pigeon and his sugar daddy, Tom Golisano.

As Bob and Mike's story Monday details, Pigeon has been the focus of scrutiny for some time - not that anyone has pulled the trigger on a prosecution.

Matt Spina laid out the details a few months back with regards to Pigeon's questionable use of political action committees.

Then the state Board of Elections referred the results of its review of Responsible New York's actions during the elections late year to the Albany County District Attorney.

Now, revelation that the former head of the Erie County DA's public integrity unit wanted to prosecute Pigeon is going to put pressure on Sedita to name a special prosecutor. 

Then there is the central role Golisano and Pigeon played in the Senate coup earlier this year that result in, among other things, Pigeon landing a $150,000-a-year job as Pedro Espada's counsel.

Enough said.

Let's move onto Erie County Executive Chris Collins, the major player in the Erie County GOP.

Two things strike me.

First is the belligerent manner in which Collins, his county attorney, Cheryl Green, and Sheriff Tim Howard, a fellow Republican, are responding to findings that the county prison and holding center are violating the rights of prisoners, among other nasty things. Rather than fixing the problems, Collins and Co. have dug in their heels.

They'd rather fight than fix.

Then there is the county executive's dalliance with the local Tea Party movement, as detailed by the Buffalo Geek and the Buffalo Pundit.

In short, the Tea Party crowd has endorsed the so-called Collins Four, which are challenging incumbent Democrats on the County Legislature, in addition to seeking the open seat created when Collins hired Kathy Konst and commissioner of environment and planning.

I don't necessarily have a problem with all of the Tea Party folks. But their crowd includes some real wing nuts, as both the the Geek and Pundit note. Their posts are well worth the read.

Next up: Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown.

In a word - actually two words - "One Sunset."

Or many words. As in FBI investigations into the One Sunset deal and the mayor's role in the police department's decision to let Leonard Stokes walk after officers were prepared to arrest him on charges of possessing a stolen handicapped parking permit.

As in the investigation by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel into, at a minimum, the arm-twisting of city employees via e-mail to work on Brown's election campaign.

As in the review by the state Department of Housing and Community Renewal into allegations by a Cleveland developer that Brown and Co. essentially tried to impose an outfit headed by one of the mayor's favored preachers as a condition of doing business with the city.

And while Brian Davis made his own bed that has resulted in an investigation by the State Police and DA, what was he doing on stage at Brown's re-election party on primary night?

Then came news Sunday that Brown and Collins are deep-sixing the deal to have the county run city parks, one of the few concrete consolidation arrangements the region's two largest governments have in place.

True, the county wasn't doing such a great job with some of the non-Olmsted parks.

But the mayor's comments about the Olmsted Conservancy's future role are making some folks nervous. Let's face it, dumping the conservancy, which practically everyone agrees has done a good job, would open up a lot of patronage jobs for the mayor, and we know what makes his administration tick.

Finally, there is the Erie County Democratic Party.

It's done just a fine job in the city, where Democrats hold all the elected positions, hasn't i?

It couldn't see its way to endorse either Brown or Mickey Kearns. Not exactly decisive. Common Council elections come around in two years and remind me again who is indispensable on that body? Is there a Gene Fahey or David Rutecki among them? I didn't think so.

On the state front, the Dems are the party that has given us senators like Bill Stachowski and Antoine Thompson, their ying to the GOP's yang of Dale Volker and George Maziarz.

Stachowski, Thompson, Volker, Maziarz. Isn't that shorthand for "Pack the car honey, we're moving to North Carolina!"

I don't see things changing unless and until "none of the above" step up.

And by "none of the above," I mean people who are genuinely interested in good government. People who don't want to be buddies with the party bosses and check-writing business interests and public employee unions. People who want to step beyond ideology and self-interest and get about the business of fixing this community.

Hello. Is anybody out there?
 

Brown wins in a landslide - an update

I'm not surprised Byron Brown won the Democratic mayoral primary Tuesday. His margin of victory is bigger than I expected, however.

I suspect it's bigger than the mayor anticipated, as well, given how he went negative on Mickey Kearns the last week of the campaign. Candidates usually take the high road if their polls show them in a commanding position. Or perhaps Brown just didn't want to take any chances, given his desire to not just win, but win convincingly, for reasons I'll explain in a minute.

No matter. Brown won 63 to 37 percent, according to Board of Elections results.

Folks, that's a landslide, which on one level represents a mission accomplished if you are among the many who believe the mayor wanted to win by a wide margin in order to sell himself as a viable candidate for lieutenant governor on a potential ticket with Andrew Cuomo or as a successor to Louise Slaughter if and when she retires from Congress. If you want to travel in those circles, you have to demonstrate you command your own backyard.

Brown demonstrated he can raise money - more than $1.7 million - and get out the vote in the face of adversity.

The mayor is nevertheless coming out of the campaign damaged goods because of the numerous investigations and audits of him and/or his administration for everything from One Sunset to coercive campaign e-mails sent to city employees to his possible role in the decision to not charge Leonard Stokes after his car was ticketed with a stolen handicapped parking permit in the window.

How those investigations play out is yet to be determined. But I suspect Brown's troubles are going to give potential political suitors pause. But that's a story for another day.

The story for today is that Brown won - and won big. How did he do it?

Update: 11:37 a.m.: Brown won largely because he won the black vote overwhelming while doing reasonably well with white voters.

Brown won 97 percent in the predominantly black Masten District, 84 percent in University and 75 percent in Ellicot. Those three districts provided Brown 13,390 of his 24,595 votes.

While Kearns won four of nine Council districts - the same ones Kevin Gaughan won in the primary four years ago - he swamped Brown only in his home turf in South Buffalo. The South District had the highest turnout of any in the city - 45 percent, vs. a citywide average of 35 percent - and Kearns won 78 percent of the vote. (Take that, Brian Higgins.)

But the mayor picked up no less than 44 percent of the vote in the other Council districts that swung to Kearns, including 44 percent in Delaware.

Turnout appears to have played less of a role than you might think, although the percentage of voters making it to the polls was the lowest in districts like North and Niagara, where Kearns needed to have a strong showing to have any hope of winning.

Bob McCarthy has this analysis with the details and I put together this chart with turnout and vote by Council district. Take a look.

In the end, it looks like a Kearns upset was not in the cards, partly because of Brown's strengths - including money and the power of the incumbency - and partly because of Kearns' shortcomings as a candidate.

Yeah, he raised some cash at the 11th hour and made a push that made things interesting at the end, but for too long the Kearns campaign was missing in action. Even in the home stretch, when he started to get people's attention, Kearns did not impress. It wasn't enough for him to simply be the anti-Brown.

Also of note is the proxy fight involving the election of candidates for the Democratic nominating convention for State Supreme Court to be held later this month.

The race in the 141st Assembly District represented by Crystal Peoples pitted a Grassroots slate against one headed by Arthur O. Eve Jr., who is no friend of the mayor. The Grassroots slate picked up eight of nine seats, led by Peoples and Sen. Antoine Thompson. Another winner was Ellicot Common Council Member Brian C. Davis. Eve was the only non-Grassrooter to win.

Meanwhile, the race in the 144th Assembly District represented by Sam Hoyt saw the Hoyt slate pick up eight of nine seats, led by the assemblyman and several elected officials who had endorsed Kearns. The only pro-Brown candidate to win was North Common Council Member Joe Golombeck.

Here are the results for those races.

More update, 11:37 a.m.: So, Brown will be around for another four years, short of election to another office or legal troubles stemming from the assorted ongoing investigations. 

It will be interesting to see what kind of tone he sets for a second term. He was far from conciliatory  Tuesday night, continuing to attack his vanquished opponent and saying on one hand that he will reach out to his opponents while quickly adding that they also need to reach out to him. It's wasn't so much what he said, but how he said it.

Graceful in victory he was not.

Yet another update, Thursday, 1:30 p.m.: Chris Smith, aka Buffalo Geek, has an interesting analysis.

Mayoral primary over almost before it began

It seems like the campaign for mayor just started in earnest and already it's primary day. What's a reporter to do but offer these last minute tidbits.

Let's start with contributions to the candidates.

For the record, Mayor Brown, since taking office, has raised a whopping $1,772,340. Here are the contributors to his Brown For Buffalo committee; ditto for his Leadership Council.

I've spent a little time looking over the list of contributors and a few things jumped out at me.

For starters, Brown is being bankrolled by three interest groups: businesses and lobbyists who do business with the city, or want to; and city employees.

Modern Disposal and its sister companies have given Brown more than anyone, $28,200. Modern is also one of the city's biggest vendors, having been paid $7.15 million the last year-and-a-half alone.

Hmmmm.

Brown, as of 11 days ago, the latest reporting period, had spent $722,499, which left him a little more than $1 million in the bank. He no doubt has spent a wad of that cash in the past week-and-a-half.

Kearns, meanwhile, had raised $153,909 as of 11 days ago and spent $114,661. Here's his list of contributors.

Big buck contributors? None to speak of. Certainly nothing along the lines of Brown.

But - and this is a big but - Kearns has said the money has been rolling in the past week or so, especially since Carl Paladino and his deep pockets decided to enter the fray. State election law requires candidates, during the 11 days leading up to the primary to report any contributions of $1,000 or more.

Kearns, however, has failed to report any additional contributions, according to the Board of Elections Web site about 7 p.m. last night.

Mickey, this is not cool.

In fact, it's against the law. Which is not a good resume builder when you're presenting yourself as a reformer who is going to clean up City Hall.

Yeah, yeah, I know you're busy campaigning. But it's no excuse. Voters have a right to know who is jumping in with big bucks at the last minute. I mean, Brown's people have reported $14,000 in 11th-hour contributions.

Then there's the matter of polls. The numbers are flying, showing Brown with anywhere from a 7 to 11 percent lead, depending on the poll.

Here's what WGRZ reported last night, based on its latest robo-poll:

The survey shows Kearns has a chance to win Tuesday's primary, but incumbent Brown appears to have the better chance as a spirited campaign enters its final day. Brown gets 51%, Kearns 44%, in Survey USA's final poll for WGRZ-TV.

The electorate is sharply divided along racial lines and across income levels, and any mis-measurement of the size of the relative constituencies could result in an upset. Brown, who is black, gets 90% of the black vote. Kearns, who is white, gets two thirds of the white vote, but loses one-third to Brown.

I did my own decidedly unscientific survey of this blog's readers yesterday and, well, I think it says more about the folks  who read my blog than it does the electorate.

As of 7:45 a.m. today, Kearns was favored by 69 percent of the 318 who participated in the poll, while Brown picked up 14 percent. Another 17 percent said the heck with both of them.

Finally, a word or ten about what the Buffalo Pundit has termed "Stokesgate."

You know, the trials and tribulations of Buffalo's most famous restaurateur this side of Frank and Theresa. Only a lot more notorious.

The mayor has been hootin' and hollerin' about reports that Stokes was somehow able to get a meeting with the mayor while police were in the middle of questioning him about the stolen handicapped parking permit he was ticketed for. Stokes stopped talking to the cops, started talking with the mayor and before you know it, no more cops, no more questions. 

Brown has refused to answer questions, claiming its all "dirty politics." He's gone so far as to challenge the police who were involved to tell their story if they have one.

Well, it turns out one of the principle cops has in fact asked to discuss what he knows. And, get this, the police brass - who, I must note, work for Brown - have told him to dummy up.

Reports Luke Moretti of WIVB TV:

Buffalo Police Detective Sergeant Thomas Donovan wants to talk about the Leonard Stokes incident. Sources tell News 4 Donovan is the one who transported Stokes to Mayor Byron Brown's office January 8th 2007 after Stokes was detained for possessing a stolen handicapped parking permit.

Here's what the mayor said Thursday.

Mayor Brown said, "No officer has come forward. Have you seen a single officer come forward and say anything?"

But Sgt. Donovan tells News 4 he'd be willing to talk if he gets approval from top police brass. They have said no, citing department policy involving an on-going investigation.

Of course, the police talk all the time about ongoing investigations.

I'm sure we haven't heard the last of this, however.

With all this said, get yourselves off to the polls if you haven't already.

Tuesday is a referendum on Byron Brown

Elections often serve as a referendum on the incumbent and I think that is especially true with Tuesday's mayoral primary between Byron Brown and Mickey Kearns.

There are five blocks of voters out there:

Those who are solidly behind Brown because of his track record, racial politics or their jobs depend on his re-election.

Those who are solidly behind Kearns because of his credentials or racial politics.

Those who are solidly against Brown because of of his track record.

Those who are undecided, not keen on Brown but uncertain about Kearns.

Those who don't care, aren't paying attention or think it's all hopeless.

Unfortunately, if Board of Elections officials are to be believed, the "what's the use?" block is far and away the largest. Which is to say, a fraction of voters will choose our next mayor.

That's sad, given what's at stake. Then again, it was even sadder when fewer than one in 10 voters turned out this spring for the School Board elections.

How will the election swing?

There's not a lot of polling data out there. The best we have to go on is a robo-poll commissioned by WGRZ-TV the week before last that showed Kearns had closed the gap with Brown and that the race is a tossup. Perhaps.

More telling was the way Brown consistently attacked Kearns during their debate Friday on Channel 2 and the tone of his advertising the past week.

Standard operating procedure is to be diplomatic if your polls show you're sitting on a big lead in the run-up to an election. You only attack if you're behind or your polls show your lead is too close for comfort.

So, methinks the race is going to be tight. Voter turnout is going to play a crucial role, as it does in any tight race with a modest turnout.

That should play to Brown's advantage, given he's got a stronger organization in place.

Then again, a ticked-off electorate often finds its way to the polls.

Just how unhappy are voters with Brown? We'll find out Tuesday.

If you're still not sure about who you prefer, read these two dueling endorsements from the Buffalo Pundit and The Buffalo News editorial board.

(And for you readers who have been predicting for months that The News would endorsement Kearns, no matter what we reporters uncovered, all I can say is '"don't shoot me, I'm only the piano player.")

Rather than wait until Tuesday, I say we get the fun started now with the poll below. One vote per person -- that's how the software is set up.