Pop Stand

Why David Archuleta Will Win: To me, David Archuleta is the dream winner for the American Idol franchise. He is a wholesome, handsome young man who has talent as big as his smile. In an era of "High School Musical" fandom, Little David fits the Zac Efron Disney mold.

And as Efron, Miley Cyrus, and their ilk age and look to break away from that wholesome teenage pinup persona, that leaves a void for those tween fans and their parents looking to shield them from the side of music that requires Parental Advisory stickers. That is why, to me, the subliminal and not-so-subliminal messages have been sent for weeks now, that Little David is the producers' favorite.

While Jordin Sparks was a talented teen, she didn't have the humility and boy-next-door thing happening for her, gender aside, that David has working for him. But not to sell Little David short, he also has talent! If he could lessen the eye squinting, and work on his stage presence, he is a diamond in the rough.

I am still convinced that David is destined for the Contemporary Christian charts eventually, where I predict he will be a megastar, in the same way that Michael W. Smith dominated the charts for years. But Little David can produce a at least a couple of mainstream albums -- which could yield a Top 40 hit or two -- before redirecting his career to the Kingdom Bound crowd.

Little David didn't show the range of David Cook, and he struggled with lyrics from time to time, but he was consistently good, and sometimes great. Last night he was on his game, and the judges all but crowned him champ right there. The judges, particularly Simon, hold a lot of sway with the viewers. And I think that may put Little David over the top.

Why David Cook Will Win: David Cook is the definition of a rock star, if not the American Idol. David has the versatility that Little David was never able to show during this seventh season of American Idol. Cook could easily follow the footsteps of Chris Daughtry and become quite successful on the rock charts.

David Cook took his lumps early in the season, criticized by Simon as being a puzzle nerd and too book smart for the shallow pop music business. But as I defended David back then, some of the greatest icons of rock music are intelligent songsmiths, and Simon's criticism of David's intellect sounded outright silly. Smart music, concept albums, and music that changes the world come from artists who are smarter than your average bear.

Taking on Michael Jackson, Lionel Richie and Dolly Parton, and making them sound contemporary and authentic in a rock genre, Cook wins big points as an artist. While he didn't do as well with Our Lady Peace, he did very well last night with Collective Soul, a group I felt was in David's style back during Dolly Parton/Country Week when I suggested he sing "Shine," a Collective Soul song redone by Parton.

David Cook is a more polished performer than Little David right now, and he is the most ready for an actual music career. He has shown the ability to take songs and arrange them in a way that suits his style, whereas Little David relied on his father to make those decisions for him. He's got poise, maturity and style, and would be most successful Idol winner since Carrie Underwood.

Who Will Win: It is a toss-up, but I think David Archuleta will probably win because of his youth, charm -- which will win over young female fans who will vote for the full 4 hours -- and the fact that producers have been pushing for him hard.

-- Dave Valenzuela

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I predict that both Davids will have successful careers in music.

But a lot of factors bear a second look.

--Does David Cook want to win? Will the "American Idol" label turn off the people he wants to appeal to? I detected a certain relaxed "what will be will be" attitude from him during the final performances last night. Rather than pick a song like "Hello" or "Billie Jean" that he's already triumphed with, he told Simon he preferred not to go backward. That's a level of independent thought that shows me he's already looking beyond "American Idol."

--Did Simon's calling the contest a "knockout" galvanize Cook's fans? And did the timing of voting, which started at 9 p.m. and ended at 1 a.m., give an edge to older voters who presumably would appreciate Cook? It was a school night, after all.

David Archuleta has the better voice, with a beautiful, pure tone. Vocally, he's already the winner. But as a performer, he's awkward and limited. He's 17 years old, and acts even younger. His parents have groomed him for "American Idol" since the show's first season. Cook, eight years older, has a range of abilities and possibilities that Archuleta may never experience, now that he's a star.

I call tonight's win for Archuleta, by a close vote. After Simon's comments last night, anything else would be a huge upset. But we've seen huge upsets before.

If you're DVR-ing tonight's show, remember that last year's finale ran over by a few minutes and Jordin Sparks wasn't named the winner until after 10 p.m.! See you back here at 8!

-- Anne Neville