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AccuScore: Bills' chances hinge on sacking Cassel

By Tim Graham

AccuScore predicted turbulence for Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick last week against the New York Jets, and that certainly came to pass.

For this week's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, the decisive trends emerged on defense.

AccuScore's 10,000 simulations showed the Bills' home opener is about as close to a coin flip as you can get. The Chiefs won 50.2 percent of the simulations, but the Bills averaged 23.8 points to the Chiefs' 23.7 points. That means when the Bills won, their margin was a skosh higher than when the Chiefs won.

AccuScore found the matchup would swing for the Bills with their pass rush. When they recorded at least four sacks on Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, the Bills won 76 percent of the time. When they failed to get any sacks -- like they did against the Jets -- they won only 33 percent of the sims.

In 27 percent of AccuScore's simulations, the Bills had at least one passing touchdown and C.J. Spiller rushed for at least 80 yards and a touchdown.

But when that happened, the Bills won 75 percent of the time and averaged 30 points.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham | [email protected]


Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan | [email protected]


Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski | [email protected]

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