By Tim Graham
AccuScore predicted turbulence for Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick last week against the New York Jets, and that certainly came to pass.
For this week's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, the decisive trends emerged on defense.
AccuScore's 10,000 simulations showed the Bills' home opener is about as close to a coin flip as you can get. The Chiefs won 50.2 percent of the simulations, but the Bills averaged 23.8 points to the Chiefs' 23.7 points. That means when the Bills won, their margin was a skosh higher than when the Chiefs won.
AccuScore found the matchup would swing for the Bills with their pass rush. When they recorded at least four sacks on Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, the Bills won 76 percent of the time. When they failed to get any sacks -- like they did against the Jets -- they won only 33 percent of the sims.
In 27 percent of AccuScore's simulations, the Bills had at least one passing touchdown and C.J. Spiller rushed for at least 80 yards and a touchdown.
But when that happened, the Bills won 75 percent of the time and averaged 30 points.