By Tim Graham
The Buffalo Bills will win but won't cover the 3-point spread Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. So says the Prediction Machine after its 50,000 simulations.
Sunday's forecast is so tight the Bills won 50.1 percent of the time, but got outscored by an average of 20.0 points to 20.2 points in the simulations.
What's remarkable about the Prediction Machine is that it not only projects the final score, but also the entire box score.
* Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's average stat line was 19 of 33 for 204 yards and 1.6 touchdowns with 1.5 interceptions.
* Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden averaged 21 of 36 for 233 yards and 1.2 touchdowns with 1.7 interceptions.
* Browns running back Trent Richardson outdueled leading NFL rusher C.J. Spiller on the ground. Richardson ran 21 times for 117 yards and 0.8 touchdowns in the simulations. Spiller ran 17 times for 94 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
* Bills receiver Stevie Johnson averaged five catches for 66 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. Tight end Scott Chandler averaged five catches for 47.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
* The Bills' defense averaged 2.4 sacks.