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AccuScore: Bills are this week's second-biggest long shot

By Tim Graham

AccuScore's computers give the Buffalo Bills the second-slimmest chance to win in this week's menu of NFL games.

In 10,000 simulations of the matchup, the Bills beat the Houston Texans in Reliant Stadium just 27.9 percent of the time.

The lone lower projection belonged to the Arizona Cardinals, who defeated the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in 16.7 percent of the sims.

The Bills averaged 21.1 points. The Texans averaged 31.0 points.

Texans running back Arian Foster was a simulation superstar against the Bills' suspect defense. He averaged 136 rushing yards and ran for less than triple digits in only 32 percent of the sims. But when he was held under 100 yards, the Bills won 52 percent of the time.

More often, Foster ran for over 150 yards. He did so 38 percent of the time, and the Texans won 91 percent of those games.

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was pedestrian. On average, he completed 54 percent of his passes, threw 1.5 touchdowns and 1.5 interceptions.

AccuScore still is ahead in forecasting Bills games this year and would have a dominant record had the Tennessee Titans not scored that fourth-and-9 touchdown to win by a point in Week Seven.

AccuScore is 5-2 straight up in Bills games and 4-3 against the spread.

In the updated weekly season forecast, the Bills made the playoffs 14.5 percent of the time and won the AFC East 2.3 percent of the time. The Miami Dolphins went to the playoffs in 50.1 percent of the sims and won the division in 14.3 percent.

The New York Jets returned to the postseason in 10.4 percent and won the AFC East in 1.1 percent. The New England Patriots were at 94.5 percent, 82.3 percent.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham | tgraham@buffnews.com


Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan | mgaughan@buffnews.com


Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski | jskurski@buffnews.com

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