By Tim Graham
AccuScore doesn't give the Buffalo Bills much hope for Sunday's game versus the San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park.
The Bills won a paltry 26.5 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 simulations of the matchup. Of the entire Week Five schedule, only the Cleveland Browns (on the road against the New York Giants) and the Indianapolis Colts (at home against the Green Bay Packers) won fewer of their simulations.
Buffalo averaged 19.8 points, while San Francisco averaged 28.7 points. Only three teams projected to score more this week.
So what must the Bills do to gain an edge?
When Ryan Fitzpatrick threw more touchdown passes than interceptions, Buffalo won 44 percent of the time. When he threw for at least two touchdowns and had zero interceptions, Buffalo won 58 percent of the time -- but that happened in only 11 percent of the simulations.
San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith averaged 1.8 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions in AccuScore's simulations. When he threw no more than one interception and San Francisco rushed for at least 125 yards, it was an 88 percent favorite. In reality, San Francisco ranks third in the NFL at 167 rushing yards a game.
For the long-term, meanwhile, the Bills made the playoffs in 27.8 percent of AccuScore's updated model, eighth-highest in the AFC. The Bills were at 44 percent last week, sixth-highest in the conference.