By Tim Graham
The Buffalo Bills will be in second place in the AFC East and mathematically tied with the New England Patriots by Sunday evening, so say our friends at AccuScore.
The entire AFC East is 3-3. With the Miami Dolphins on their bye and the Patriots hosting the New York Jets, only two teams can be 4-3. AccuScore projects the Patriots and Bills to win handily.
In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, the Bills defeated the Tennessee Titans 62.6 percent of the time in Ralph Wilson Stadium and scored an average of 26.1 points. The Titans averaged 21.0 points per game.
When the Bills recorded at least three sacks and held Titans running back Chris Johnson to less than 65 rushing yards, the Bills won 85 percent of the sims.
But when the Bills notched no more than two sacks and Johnson rushed for more than 65 yards, the Bills won just 43 percent of the time.
Bills backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combined for an average of 22 carries for 125 yards in the simulations, but if the Titans can hold them to under 60 yards each, then they become 57 percent favorites.
Readers occasionally ask how reliable AccuScore is. Here's a rundown of its projections so far, with results straight up and against the closing spread (numbers courtesy Joel Staniszewski at Las Vegas Sports Consultants):
- AccuScore prediction: Jets 23.0, Bills 19.6
- Las Vegas spread: Bills +3
- Result: Jets 48, Bills 28
- AccuScore prediction: Bills 23.8, Chiefs 23.7
- Las Vegas spread: Bills -3
- Result: Bills 35, Chiefs 15
- AccuScore prediction: Bills 24.2, Browns 20.6
- Las Vegas spread: Bills -2.5
- Result: Bills 24, Browns 14
- AccuScore prediction: Patriots 30.2, Bills 24.3
- Las Vegas spread: Bills +3.5
- Result: Patriots 52, Bills 28
- AccuScore prediction: Niners 28.7, Bills 19.8
- Las Vegas spread: Bills +10
- Result: Niners 45, Bills 3
- AccuScore prediction: Cardinals 23.8, Bills 22.5
- Las Vegas spread: Bills +5
- Result: Bills 19, Cardinals 16 (OT)
AccuScore against the spread: 4-2