By Tim Graham
Don't get upset with oddsmaker Joel Staniszewski's information. He's a Buffalo Bills fan. He's from Sloan and graduated from St. Joe's and Buffalo State. He wants his hometown team to win.
But the trends don't show much hope for the Bills against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
"Before the season even began, most Bills fans were excited about facing the NFC West," Staniszewski said. "But now it's looking like that division is one of the most competitive in the NFL.
"The trends don't look too good for the Bills again this week. For the Bills, the over has hit 12 of the last 14 games they've been the underdog, including last week."
San Francisco opened as a 10-point favorite in Candlestick Park. The spread now is at 9 1/2 points. The over-under total has remained at 44.5 points.
Staniszewski said there hasn't been much action on the game because of the West Coast kickoff.
"There are a good amount of bettors who wait and see how the early games go before they start betting on the late games," Staniszewski said. "They want to see if they're playing with house money or if they're chasing their early losses."
The Niners are 17-4 straight up in the last 21 games they were favored and 7-1-2 in their past 10 games they were favored by at least eight points.
The trends Staniszewski has shared recently with the Press Coverage blog have held up.
Two weeks ago, he noted a high percentage of 0-2 underdogs cover the spread in Week Three games (and they went 4-1, with the Bills holding off the Cleveland Browns).
Last week he stressed how awful the Bills have been against the spread in AFC East games and mentioned the New England Patriots crush the over in the division. The Patriots matched the total all by themselves, scoring 52 points on the Bills.
"Let's hope for a trend-buster this week," Staniszewski said.