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Turnovers alarming in AccuScore sim of Bills at Cardinals

By Tim Graham

The Buffalo Bills' defense has been reeling and could feast on an injury-ravaged Arizona Cardinals offense that is coming off a game in which it allowed nine sacks.

Buffalo's offensive efficiency, however, is what AccuScore sees as the difference Sunday in University of Phoenix Stadium.

In AccuScore's 10,000 computerized simulations, the Cardinals won 52.3 percent of the time by an average score of 23.8 points to 22.5 points.

Those numbers take into account that Arizona's top two running backs are out. The simulations had Arizona averaging only 3.7 yards a carry.

But the Bills averaged 2.7 turnovers and committed four or more an astronomical 28 percent of the time. When they did have four or more giveaways, the Cardinals won 59 percent of the sims.

If the Bills can limit themselves to no more than one turnover, then they are 55 percent favorites.

When the Bills recorded at least four sacks, they won 58 percent of the time. But when they had fewer than four sacks, the Cardinals won 61 percent of the time.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |