By Tim Graham
The Buffalo Bills' defense has been reeling and could feast on an injury-ravaged Arizona Cardinals offense that is coming off a game in which it allowed nine sacks.
Buffalo's offensive efficiency, however, is what AccuScore sees as the difference Sunday in University of Phoenix Stadium.
In AccuScore's 10,000 computerized simulations, the Cardinals won 52.3 percent of the time by an average score of 23.8 points to 22.5 points.
Those numbers take into account that Arizona's top two running backs are out. The simulations had Arizona averaging only 3.7 yards a carry.
But the Bills averaged 2.7 turnovers and committed four or more an astronomical 28 percent of the time. When they did have four or more giveaways, the Cardinals won 59 percent of the sims.
If the Bills can limit themselves to no more than one turnover, then they are 55 percent favorites.
When the Bills recorded at least four sacks, they won 58 percent of the time. But when they had fewer than four sacks, the Cardinals won 61 percent of the time.