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AccuScore: Bills as much of a long shot as you'd expect

By Tim Graham

The Buffalo Bills will need to span AccuScore's second-widest gulf to win Sunday.

In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, the Bills lost to the New England Patriots by an average of 13.4 points. Only the Kansas City Chiefs against the Pittsburgh Steelers had a bigger deficit, 15 points.

Buffalo averaged 20.8 points, while New England averaged 34.2 points.

The Bills beat the Patriots 18.8 percent of the time in the simulations, the third-lowest projection of the week behind the Chiefs (16.6 percent) and St. Louis Rams (18.2 percent) versus the San Francisco 49ers.

Buffalo's best formula for victory is Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing fewer interceptions than Tom Brady and averaging at least 5 yards a carry. When Buffalo did that, it won 54 percent of the sims.

But Fitzpatrick threw fewer interceptions than Brady in only 19 percent of the sims. Overall, Brady averaged 0.7 interceptions, and Fitzpatrick averaged 1.5 interceptions.

Another killer, given that the Patriots had a pair of 100-yard runners in Ralph Wilson Stadium, is when they posted more rushing yards as a team, the Bills won only 10 percent of the time.

AccuScore is 6-2 straight up in Bills games and 4-4 against the spread.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |