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AccuScore: Bills big favorites to beat Jaguars at home

By Tim Graham

In spite of the losses and a sputtering offense, the Buffalo Bills are one of AccuScore's biggest favorites this week.

The Bills will play the ramshackle Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in Ralph Wilson Stadium.

In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, the Bills won an impressive 66.7 percent of the time by an average score of 23.9-17.9.

The simulations were run with the assumption Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew will not play. He hasn't been ruled out, but he's not expected to return from his injury this weekend.

When C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson rushed for more yards than the Jaguars, the Bills won a whopping 84 percent of the time. When the Jaguars won the ground game without MJD, they won 55 percent of the sims.

Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne is nearly 2-0 as a starter (an overtime loss and a victory), but he's averaged a pedestrian 205 yards and one touchdown on AccuScore's calculations. When he pushed his yardage to 250 yards and threw for at least two touchdowns with no interceptions, the Jaguars became 54 percent favorites.

AccuScore is 9-2 straight up in Bills games this year, 4-7 against the spread.

As for the postseason, AccuScore's forecast gives the Bills a 12.7 percent chance to make it.

The Bills finish with an average of 6.8 victories in AccuScore's season simulations.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |