By Tim Graham
In spite of the losses and a sputtering offense, the Buffalo Bills are one of AccuScore's biggest favorites this week.
The Bills will play the ramshackle Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in Ralph Wilson Stadium.
In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, the Bills won an impressive 66.7 percent of the time by an average score of 23.9-17.9.
The simulations were run with the assumption Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew will not play. He hasn't been ruled out, but he's not expected to return from his injury this weekend.
When C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson rushed for more yards than the Jaguars, the Bills won a whopping 84 percent of the time. When the Jaguars won the ground game without MJD, they won 55 percent of the sims.
Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne is nearly 2-0 as a starter (an overtime loss and a victory), but he's averaged a pedestrian 205 yards and one touchdown on AccuScore's calculations. When he pushed his yardage to 250 yards and threw for at least two touchdowns with no interceptions, the Jaguars became 54 percent favorites.
AccuScore is 9-2 straight up in Bills games this year, 4-7 against the spread.
As for the postseason, AccuScore's forecast gives the Bills a 12.7 percent chance to make it.
The Bills finish with an average of 6.8 victories in AccuScore's season simulations.