By Tim Graham
The Buffalo Bills haven't won in a month, but they're favored to beat the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night.
AccuScore's computers -- after two weeks of predicting blowout Bills losses -- agree the Bills will win a close one.
The Bills won 53.8 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations. They averaged 21.6 points to the Dolphins' 20.0 points.
Only two other matchups produced a tighter margin: the New York Jets at St. Louis Rams and Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers.
Interceptions emerge as the critical stat for Thursday night.
When Ryan Fitzpatrick threw no more than one interception in AccuScore's sims, the Bills won 62 percent of the time. When he threw two or more, the Bills' chances plummeted to 35 percent.
Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw more touchdowns than interceptions 35 percent of the time, and the Dolphins won 67 percent of those games.
When the Bills had more rushing yards, they won 80 percent of the sims. In games the Dolphins had more rushing yards, they won 70 percent.
AccuScore is 7-2 straight up in Bills games and 4-5 against the spread.
AccuScore also runs a weekly forecast for the remainder of the season. In the latest calculations, Buffalo won the AFC East 0.2 percent of the time and made the playoffs 7.8 percent.
The Bills' most favorable projection was after Week Three, when AccuScore gave them an 18 percent chance to win the division and a 44 percent chance to reach the postseason.
The Dolphins had a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs two weeks ago but lost back-to-back conference games. The Dolphins now are projected at 9.5 percent.