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C.J. Spiller biggest swing factor in AccuScore forecast

By Tim Graham

Even AccuScore's microchips say the Buffalo Bills need to give C.J. Spiller the ball more.

For this week's matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium, AccuScore determined Spiller is the biggest key to a Bills victory.

Overall, the Bills won just 47.9 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations and averaged 25.8 points. The Colts averaged 26.8 points.

But in sims when Spiller rushed at least 12 times and averaged at least 6 yards a carry, the Bills won 73 percent of the time.

Spiller had 22 carries last week without Fred Jackson in the lineup, but Jackson should return for Sunday's game. Aside from the season opener, which Jackson left in the first half with a knee injury, Spiller has had no more than 12 carries in games Jackson also played. In the past two games they played together, Spiller had six and nine carries.

Colts rookie Andrew Luck averaged 270 yards one interception per game in AccuScore's sims. But when he threw no interceptions, the Colts won 67 percent of the time.

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 220 yards and one interception. But when he passed for more yards than Luck and didn't throw more than one interception, the Bills' chances increased to 52 percent.

AccuScore is 8-2 straight up in predicting Bills games this year, 4-6 against the spread.

In AccuScore's weekly playoff calculations, the Bills made it 12.7 percent of the time, up from 7.8 percent before defeating the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. The Bills' chances of winning the AFC East barely stirred, rising from 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent.

The Bills' most favorable forecast was after Week Three, when AccuScore gave them a 44 percent chance to reach the postseason and an 18 percent chance to win the division.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |