By Tim Graham
Even AccuScore's microchips say the Buffalo Bills need to give C.J. Spiller the ball more.
For this week's matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium, AccuScore determined Spiller is the biggest key to a Bills victory.
Overall, the Bills won just 47.9 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations and averaged 25.8 points. The Colts averaged 26.8 points.
But in sims when Spiller rushed at least 12 times and averaged at least 6 yards a carry, the Bills won 73 percent of the time.
Spiller had 22 carries last week without Fred Jackson in the lineup, but Jackson should return for Sunday's game. Aside from the season opener, which Jackson left in the first half with a knee injury, Spiller has had no more than 12 carries in games Jackson also played. In the past two games they played together, Spiller had six and nine carries.
Colts rookie Andrew Luck averaged 270 yards one interception per game in AccuScore's sims. But when he threw no interceptions, the Colts won 67 percent of the time.
Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 220 yards and one interception. But when he passed for more yards than Luck and didn't throw more than one interception, the Bills' chances increased to 52 percent.
AccuScore is 8-2 straight up in predicting Bills games this year, 4-6 against the spread.
In AccuScore's weekly playoff calculations, the Bills made it 12.7 percent of the time, up from 7.8 percent before defeating the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. The Bills' chances of winning the AFC East barely stirred, rising from 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent.
The Bills' most favorable forecast was after Week Three, when AccuScore gave them a 44 percent chance to reach the postseason and an 18 percent chance to win the division.