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On the line from Vegas: Bills-Pats trends that'll make you cringe

By Tim Graham

Las Vegas oddsmaker and St. Joe's grad Joel Staniszewski delivers some fascinating Buffalo Bills betting trends each week for the Press Coverage blog.

For a change, I gave him one to consider.

Ripped straight from Jerry Sullivan's column on Thursday, I told Staniszewski that in their 12 in-season rematches since 2000, the New England Patriots have outscored the Bills, 344-99.

"Geez," Staniszewski said before scratching out some quick math. "That's an average score of 28-8. Wow.

"That's pathetic to average losing by 20 points. It's not like it's one or two games they got blown out in. This is over the course of 12 games. That's quite a beating."

That obnoxious point total includes games in Orchard Park and Foxborough, Mass. The Bills, of course, are playing Sunday in Gillette Stadium, where they've never won and the Patriots have an .831 winning percentage.

The Patriots, to make matters worse, are coming off their bye week. They are 9-3 after byes under Bill Belichick. The Bills have been the Patriots' post-bye opponents six times since 2000. The Patriots are 6-0 in those games.

The Bills are 11-point underdogs and have gone 3-8-1 against the spread over their past dozen road games. The over/under total is 51 points.

Staniszewski found one favorable trend for the Bills -- at least for wagering purposes. The Patriots are 3-11 against the spread over their past 14 November home games.

Staniszewski didn't sound confident about Buffalo's chances.

"Their defense is actually getting worse," Staniszewski said. "Mark Anderson's been out. Terrence McGee's out. Aaron Williams is out.

"Their secondary is hurting. It's not a good place to be in against the Patriots and their pass-happy offense.

"It's a grim outlook, to say the least."


On the line from Vegas
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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |