By Tim Graham
I clearly didn't rely on AccuScore's analysis when predicting the Buffalo Bills will beat the Miami Dolphins outright Sunday in Sun Life Stadium.
The Bills won only 43 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations, averaging 19.1 points a game. The Dolphins averaged 21.8 points.
The simulations also forecasted a tough afternoon for Bills running back C.J. Spiller. The NFL's leader in average per carry at 6.5 yards came in at only 3.8 yards in simulations against the Dolphins' eighth-ranked run defense.
But in games when Spiller averaged at least 5 yards a carry, the Bills won 54 percent of the time.
The Bills won the ground battle in just 31 percent of the sims. When they did, they won 76 percent of the time.
When Dolphins rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw one or more interceptions, the Bills won 54 percent of the time. But when Tannehill survived without an interception, the Dolphins were 70 percent favorites.