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AccuScore: Dolphins will have C.J. Spiller's number

By Tim Graham

I clearly didn't rely on AccuScore's analysis when predicting the Buffalo Bills will beat the Miami Dolphins outright Sunday in Sun Life Stadium.

The Bills won only 43 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations, averaging 19.1 points a game. The Dolphins averaged 21.8 points.

The simulations also forecasted a tough afternoon for Bills running back C.J. Spiller. The NFL's leader in average per carry at 6.5 yards came in at only 3.8 yards in simulations against the Dolphins' eighth-ranked run defense.

But in games when Spiller averaged at least 5 yards a carry, the Bills won 54 percent of the time.

The Bills won the ground battle in just 31 percent of the sims. When they did, they won 76 percent of the time.

When Dolphins rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw one or more interceptions, the Bills won 54 percent of the time. But when Tannehill survived without an interception, the Dolphins were 70 percent favorites.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham | tgraham@buffnews.com


Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan | mgaughan@buffnews.com


Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski | jskurski@buffnews.com

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