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Consecutive Bills wins expected in AccuScore forecast

By Tim Graham

The Buffalo Bills on Sunday should notch their first set of back-to-back victories in two and a half months.

So say the psychic CPUs in the AccuScore labs.

The Bills are one of AccuScore's biggest favorites for Week 14. In 10,000 computer simulations, the Bills beat the Rams 62.6 percent of the time. The Bills averaged 25.0 points per game, while the Rams averaged 20.2 points.

AccuScore's data had quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Sam Bradford producing similar numbers Sunday in Ralph Wilson Stadium, but the Bills had a decided edge on the ground. The Bills averaged 5.4 yards a carry to the Rams' 4.5 yards a carry.

In sims when the Rams' defense allowed under 4.6 yards per carry, they won 51 percent of the time. But when the Rams outrushed the Bills, their chances soared to 71 percent.

Fitzpatrick averaged one interception per game overall. In the sims Buffalo won, he averaged 0.8 interceptions. In the sims Buffalo lost, he averaged 1.6 interceptions.

AccuScore is 10-2 straight up in Bills games this year, 4-7-1 against the spread.

AccuScore had a push last week because it projected the Bills would win by six points, which was right on the spread. Therefore, AccuScore gave no indication whether to take the points or give them.

As for the postseason, AccuScore's forecast gives the Bills a 3.5 percent chance to make the tournament, down substantially from the 12.7 likelihood from last week because the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals all won, too.

The Bills finish with an average of 7.1 victories -- up from 6.8 last week -- in AccuScore's season simulations.

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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |