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On the line from Vegas: Trends kinder to Rams than Bills

By Tim Graham

Two weeks ago, Las Vegas oddsmaker and St. Joe's grad Joel Staniszewski passed along some trends that showed the Buffalo Bills don't perform well against the spread the game after a victory.

Here we are again.

The Bills are coming off perhaps their most complete performance of the season, a 34-18 thrashing of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills on Sunday are favored by 3 points over the St. Louis Rams in Ralph Wilson Stadium. The over/under total is 42 points.

"We're in that same situation again after they beat Miami," Staniszewski said of the Thursday night victory in Week 10. "When the Bills win and hold the other team's offense and ground game to limited production, the next game, the Bills just don't perform well."

The Bills are 2-7 against the spread in their past nine games after a straight-up victory of 14 points or more.

"That once again proves that inconsistency rears its ugly head the next game," said Staniszewski, of Cantor Gaming. "They just don't perform like they should after a win."

The Rams, meanwhile, also have some interesting trends to consider. They've been playing well and beat the NFC-leading San Francisco 49ers last week.

The Rams are 4-1 against the spread over their past five games after a straight-up victory, and they're 4-1 against the spread over their past five road games.

But the Rams suffer from a weird malaise the week after playing the Niners. The Rams haven't won straight up after playing the Niners since Sept. 24, 2006.

The Rams are 8-4 against the spread this year, but this will be their first cold-weather game. Their outdoor road games so far have been at Chicago on Sept. 23, at Miami and at San Francisco.

No jackets required.

Weather doesn't usually impact a point spread, but Staniszewski explained how it impacts the over/under total.

"Totals can change dramatically based on weather, especially late reports that it'll be rainy or snowing or winds gusting up to 50 mph," Staniszewski said. "That means passing teams aren't going to be passing, and every time you run the ball it wastes so much more clock and usually for less yardage."


On the line from Vegas
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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |