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On the line from Vegas: Super Bowl XLVII betting analysis

By Tim Graham

NEW ORLEANS -- Las Vegas oddsmaker Joel Staniszewski of Sloan has been delighting us degenerates all season with his betting observations on the Buffalo Bills and the postseason.

Here are his thoughts and trends for Super Bowl XLVII.

San Francisco 49ers versus Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Niners minus-3.5

Total: 47.5 points

• Ten teams from the wild-card playoff round have reached the Super Bowl. They are 10-0 against the spread and 7-3 straight up.

• In the last 11 Super Bowls, the underdog is 8-3 against the spread.

• San Francisco is 5-1 against the spread in its past six games against a team with a winning record.

• Baltimore is 4-0 against the spread in its past four postseason games.

• Baltimore is 4-1 against the spread in its past five games overall.

Baltimore beat San Francisco, 16-6, at home on Thanksgiving 2011. Staniszewski points out the Ravens pretty much have remained the same, but Niners quarterback Alex Smith threw for 140 yards, ran for 12 yards and got sacked nine times in that game.

• In nine starts, Colin Kaepernick has averaged 233 passing yards, 48.5 rushing yards, 1.9 touchdowns (passing and rushing), 0.4 interceptions and 1.5 sacks.

And because Staniszewski was incredulous someone would think to track such a thing:

• The team from the city with the lowest unemployment rate has won 20 of the past 25 Super Bowls. Baltimore's unemployment rate in 2012 was 7.2 percent, while San Francisco's was 8.2 percent.

Staniszewski's take:

"My initial thought when the line came out was that San Francisco was the play. But the more historical research I've done, the more I'm leaning toward Baltimore as the play. Also something to keep in mind is that if you think Baltimore is the play, then take the under because they have a better chance to win a low-scoring game. If you like San Francisco, then you should take the over."


On the line from Vegas | Super Bowl XLVII
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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham |

Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan |

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski |