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On the line from Vegas: Trends eclipse changes until further notice

By Tim Graham

Last year's quarterback class has been toted as the best since 1983.

Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson were phenomenal. Ryan Tannehill performed solidly. Brandon Weeden was passable.

All around, a remarkable first year.

Nevertheless, they went 1-4 in their NFL debuts. They were 2-3 against the spread. Luck and Tannehill were blown out by 20 points. One of the quarterbacks who covered, Weeden, threw four interceptions.

"This quarterback class is considered poor compared to last year's class," said Las Vegas oddsmaker Joel Staniszewski, "and last year's class didn't do well on opening day."

That's one more consideration that doesn't bode well for EJ Manuel and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

Staniszewski, a Sloan native and Buffalo State grad, is an oddsmaker for Cantor Gaming, which operates race and sports books at the Venetian, Tropicana, Hard Rock, Palms, Palazzo, M Resort, Cosmopolitan and Silverton casinos in Las Vegas.

Staniszewski has provided oddsmaking analysis for the Press Coverage blog and is back for another season.

The New England Patriots are favored over the Bills by 10 to 11 points, depending on the sports book. The over/under total is 51 points.

Staniszewski groaned as he listed the trends that go against his Bills.

  • The Patriots are 18-1 straight up in their past 19 games against the Bills.
  • The Patriots are 11-2 straight up over their past 13 games in Ralph Wilson Stadium.
  • The Patriots are 7-1-1 against the spread in their past nine trips to The Ralph.
  • The Patriots are 40-23 against the spread versus the AFC East since 2001.
  • Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 113-78 against the spread over his career.

But how does Las Vegas apply those trends when considering the Bills have reinvented themselves?

Aren't betting trends irrelevant against these Bills?

"It's not as difficult as people think," Staniszewski said of establishing a spread. "You can say the trends don't matter because it wasn't against this coaching staff and EJ Manuel.

"The fact remains it's still the Bills versus the Patriots. The betting public doesn't necessarily care whether it's EJ Manuel or Ryan Fitzpatrick. You can put up a number that's smaller because it's a different regime, young hungry coaches, team on the rise.

"But people who bet think, 'Tom Brady versus the Bills.' You can't give the Bills the benefit of the doubt until they prove us wrong."

Staniszewski noted the spread fluttered a tad when over talk undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel might start at quarterback instead of Manuel. The line settled after Manuel was declared the starter.

"But when the Bills play the Patriots," Staniszewski said, "everybody loves the Patriots."

tagged

EJ Manuel | Jeff Tuel | On the line from Vegas | Tom Brady
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About Press Coverage

Tim Graham

Tim Graham

Tim Graham returned to The Buffalo News in 2011 after covering the NFL for three years at ESPN and for one year at the Palm Beach Post. Before that, the Cleveland native spent seven seasons on the Buffalo Sabres beat for The News and was president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.

@ByTimGraham | [email protected]


Mark Gaughan

Mark Gaughan

Buffalo native Mark Gaughan started working at The News in 1980 and has been covering the Bills exclusively since 1992. He is a former president of the Pro Football Writers of America, and he is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee.

@gggaughan | [email protected]


Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski

Jay Skurski joined The News in January 2009. The Lewiston native attended St. Francis High School before graduating from the University of South Florida. He writes a weekly Fantasy column in addition to his beat writing duties.

@JaySkurski | [email protected]

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