Next stop: Pominville

Ryan Miller signed Friday and GM Darcy Regier said the focus now turns to Jason Pominville. He's making $1.375 million this year and will then be a restricted free agent.

"I'm hoping he wants to stay like [Paul] Gaustad and [Ryan] Miller and I have no reason to believe otherwise," Regier said. "I had a brief conversation with him last week and [Thursday]. We'll get to work on that."

Because Pominville will only be an RFA next summer, the Sabres hold a lot more cards with him than Miller or any potential UFA. Still, they want to get him locked up longterm and would be wise to do that before he gets in the 100-point range.

Derek Roy got a six-year, $24 million deal prior to last season. I would certainly say Pominville may be worthy of being a $4 million player as well, perhaps more. How about four years, $18 million? Or maybe, for old times sake, kick the can again for five years-$25 million? (Relax, just kidding. Couldn't resist).

You be Darcy. Make Pominville an offer in the comments section.

---Mike Harrington

Comments

[Bster]

Mike,

cromulent (not comparable)

(nonce word) Fine, acceptable or normal; of a certain standard.

It's a perfectly cromulent word. — Ms. Hoover in The Simpsons

Excellent, realistic or authentic.

He's embiggened that role with his cromulent performance. — Principal Skinner in The Simpsons

Wikipedia.com

eek!

[tim]

on his worst intelligence gathering day, I doubt even then does Pommer's agent red the Buffalo News Sabres Edge blog for advice. I doubt he reads the Buffalo News for advice.

On the off chance that he does... on the advice of this psuedo-expert: 6 yrs $30.5M

[bob]

Everyone should stop filling pominville's agent's head with ideas. He is locked up for this year. So like Miller, his raise starts next year. His career numbers in games and points are very similar to Roy's, year after year, I won't list them all here, check for yourself.

But, I'd give him an extension for four years to keep him til 2012-13 just as Roy, Miller and Vanek have. The numbers? Same as Roy's, $3.5 for 09-10, then $4.0, $4.5 and $5.5.

[ElmaGolf]

But enough about Henry ---

As for Pomminville, I understand that things weren't as urgent for him as they were for Miller.

However, I really don't think that Pommer's RFA status should be any reason to step off the gas in negotiations. If Pomminville truly is a "core guy" that you are committed to, then get it done before prices go up any further. Just because the Sabres have the "right" to match any offer sheet doesn't mean the price isn't going up (a la Vanek).

Now it's a different situation than Vanek, in that Pomminville finished the last season on a pretty high note. Vanek finished the penultimate season of his contract from the Press Box and questions lingered on his fitness & stamina. By the time he answered those questions, I think his agent was pretty adamant he was going to field some offer sheets no matter what.

Now, the real question is whether Pomminville is interested in getting things done now or trying to maximize his dollar value by waiting for next summer.

To all the people that asked "why on earth would Miller want to stay here?" I think the answer is the same for Gaustad, Miller, Pomminville, Roy etc...

Here is exactly what I wrote last March after the Tampa Comeback, commenting on the huge hug Pomminville gave Miller at the end:

************************
"For all the talk by fans about Miller wanting to leave based on the past FA departures, I think there's a significant bond among the guys from those 2003-2005 Rochester teams. Gaustad, Roy, Vanek, Pommer, Miller, Paetsch, Paille all came up together and have developed a closeness that you saw in that hug last night. I've heard Miller give a number of interviews where he talks about these guys being "family", not just "independent contractors he works with."

It seems like management is committed to that group as its "core" for years to come. In a way, I hope these guys continue to develop a "chip on their shoulder" when people say they can't get the job done without Drury & Briere."

Posted by: ElmaGolf | March 20, 2008 at 12:12 PM
**************************

In hearing Miller's (and his agent's) comments after the signing Friday, I believe all his past talk about the "bond" was legitimate, not just PR grandstanding from an independent contract looking to make the biggest check possible (Yeah, I'm looking at you, Soupy.) From a purely money perspective, Miller had very little incentive to negotiate this early, except in wanting to commit to his "family."

So far, every guy on that list but Pommer & Paetsch is locked up to keep that bond strong. I honestly believe Pomminville will follow in Miller's footsteps and sign soon.

(And I agree with Heather & Kate, I'd love for the Sabres to use a $25/5 offer as a "Bucky, can you NOW drop it?" statement.)

[ElmaGolf]

Sorry I missed the whole weekend - anything interesting happen??

After reading the various threads, I thought I add my two cents (more lke 2 dollars):
********************
First of all - there was Henry and his concern over Miller's "mediocrity."

I'm not going to completely dismiss Henry's concerns on Miller. This was a pretty much a "d@mned if you do, d@amned if you don't" situation. Miller's finish to last season didn't make the huge contract a "no-brainer," and I think everyone (including Miller) agrees that he'll have to play better than last year to earn it. Unfortunately, the "compromise offer" that some (like Bucky) have suggested (3 years, $4-5MM per year) just wasn't going to happen. Funny part is, I'm willing to bet if the Sabres followed Bucky's advice exactly, Miller would have been gone by February, and Bucky would have spun it into a "See, they never learn" column.

Simply put, there's a reason it's called a "risk" - there's no guarantee. But I think Miller's overall body of work does justify having some faith in his ability to improve and earn his contract. As much as I use stats to support my statements here, I don't think they can be the sole basis for your argument. You can't rely blindly on stats, but you shouldn't ignore them either.

When it comes to Henry, he has some valid questions on Miller. Unfortunately, I think his credibility and perspective comes into question when you combine it with many of his other statements, such as:

- "Roy had his chance to step up and failed" - Sorry, if you think a 24 year old putting up 81 points after being given a boatload more pressure from top defenses is a failure - you're just trying to be contradictory and negative at any cost.

- Henry then mourns over overpaying a "one-dimensional goalie." Even pretending I know what that means with respect to a Goalie, why does Henry mourn so deeply for Danny Briere? He's using the "Ex-Sabre" filter, and wants us to believe that Briere's 72 points and -22 rating was worth every penny, but Roy's 81 points and +13 is a "failure."

- Henry rolls of the list of players that left, always with the implicit assumption that they would NEVER suffer any drop in production and would simply continue to excel had Buffalo just paid them what they thought they were worth. He's quick to point out how Miller is a "sieve" in shootouts. And he was a stone wall the previous season. It's just the nature of sports - performances fluctuate (unless you're an ex-Sabre - In Henry's world, you are always as good as your best season here). (And the inverse is true for current Sabres - you're only as good as your worst season here).

- Speaking of fluctuating performances, it's ironic that Henry misses Campbell so much. Like I said, in Henry's mind, Miller will only ever be as good as his first 3 full seasons here (and will likely tend towards the worst of the 3). I wonder if it eludes people like Henry how deep Campbell was into his career when he was a repeated healthy scratch?

- Henry also still buys into the "could have had Briere at $25/5" nonsense. To borrow from Bucky - "for the umpteenth time," that offer was a take it or leave it offer made before he went into Arbitration, at a time when the Sabres had almost a dozen UFAs/RFAs unsigned and the Salary Cap was significantly lower. It wasn't a realistic offer. In today's dollars, that would be like Pommer coming to the table next spring and saying $35MM/5 years - take it or leave it (and to make it even more realistic - imagine Roy's contract was up at the same time). "Briere's $25/5" is the most ridiculous criticism of management out here.

[Matthew Kimel]

$45 for three years with a $75 million signing bonus.

[Joe Mama]

OK, the Goose and Miller are signed for many moons. Kudos Regier, ya done good. Finally. Now lock up Pommer the Bomber, give Teppo and Pratt a mil each for two years, put Vanek and Afinogenov on either side of Roy again and let's take on this damn league. Think these guys can't compete. BS

[Buffalo Excuses]

Can't agree there Guru. Darcy is a good, if not great, GM. Tough for him to compete though. For every $4 he spends, others can spend $5.

Anyone who has played fantasy sports with keepers knows how tough it is to beat the team with 25% more money to spend on draft day. Works the same in the pros I'll bet.

That we are as competitive (albeit not enough) is a great accomplishment in itself. But I agree a chance for a championship is limited to taking a run at it every 15 years or so.

For me, that is still not enough.

[Hockey Guru]

Face it, regier is a timid wussbag, the sabres are SOFT, they certainly did not underacheive last season, thye weren't that good. Heather, tell me about that impossible dream crap in 15 years when the sabres still haven't won anything worthwhile! regier will do9 nothing more, the team will lose all the physical battles and the same crap will be spewed by the likes of dave and heather next year. regier sucks and will never win anything here, face it.

[rj]

the 'good' sabres were NOT built by developing their own players. See Drury, Brier, Dumont, Nuuminen, Lydman, Connolly, Pyatt, Grier, Hecht and Mair. those key folks make half a team. now they want us to believe they are suddenly the world's best groomers? they will field exactly two other players not drafted this year, and one is lalime. outside of two years ago, when is the last time they had a drafted all-star? my quick guess is mogilny. those putting their eggs in the sabres drafting basket better like shells in their omelets.

[Katebits]

Hey, thanks Not Fade Away! How nice of you to say!

[Heather B.]

"Although the pirates did win the series if I remember correctly, no?"

Well... I was not quite 2 when they won the last one (1979) so I don't really count it. In my remembered lifetime they've never advanced past the NLCS and that was way back in 1992. They've been below .500 since then. So yeah... the Sabres got nothing on them.

And I don't know that 97% of people disagree with your take completely. I do think some people are okay watching a team that's competitive but not championship caliber though. It's POSSIBLE that not everyone else takes this quite as seriously as some of us do :P

[Buffalo Excuses]

Yeah, The Pirates were pretty pathetic pretty much giving away talent weren't they? Even The Excuses aren't THAT bad. Although the pirates did win the series if I remember correctly, no?

I do agree that The Excuses have a good young team. But that is what is most frustrating. They stop there.

But that is beating a dead horse and 97% of the fans disagree with me. Marketing is a wonderful thing. Let's hope they/you are right.

[Heather B.]

Excuses, no harm done! I would like to think that I'm old enough and mature enough to understand that not one everyone is going to look at things the same way I am. I've only lived in Buffalo for 8 years and I've really only followed the Sabres closely for a little more than half of that so I know there are people in Buffalo who have been waiting for a championship much longer than I have. I put in my decade of futility with the Pittsburgh Pirates before wandering away so it's not like I don't understand frustration and disgust with management taking over optimism and hope.

I think what's being missed by some people however is that there are people here like me and maybe the rest of the gang of five though I don't want to speak for them, who don't feel they're cheering for mediocrity. I think the Sabres have a good, young team. I think the Eastern Conference lacks a Goliath and that we're as strong as every other team on our side of the bracket. I think we were good enough to compete last season but important pieces were either injured (Connolly :::sigh::: and Afinogenov) or underachieved (Tallinder, Lydman, and Miller especially). Some of us also believe that age and experience will make a difference even without a lot of pieces being added. It would be nice to see the Sabres spend more money but I also don't think spending more money is an automatic answer. Obviously, you have every right to disagree with any or all of the above, but I know where I get offended is not so much "I disagree with you!" but "I disagree with you and you're an idiot who doesn't get it!" And that's not directed at you, just a general statement and perhaps I'm a little too sensitive in that regard.

Will they win a Cup? I don't know. I think they're putting a lot of pressure on Weber and Sekera to play well this season and I think they'll struggle again if last year's underachievers don't pull it together. But I don't think they're mediocre. I certainly don't feel the franchise is as directionless as the Pirates were in the late 90's and most of the 2000's. I think mistakes were made, I think ownership probably does sometimes handcuff their very good GM, but I don't think it's a bad team. That's all.

And again, no offense taken on my side of things at least. I enjoy a good debate as much as anyone and I know sarcasm and friendly jeering don't always translate well over the ol' internet. It would be pretty boring around here if we were all saying the same thing.

[Buffalo Excuses]

Not Fade, if you were paying attention as you claim, you would know I included Heather in my "gang of five".

Heather,

It is clearly more fun to be positive than negative. I have been on the bandwagon for as long as I can recall. But we seem to go through the same cycles here, and this offseason knocked me off the wagon, not as a fan but as a PAYING fan. I hoped there were more like me.

It is usually this time of year that we decide how "good" our team is going to be. It is also a time when we decide how much we are going to spend. It is fun to actually watch the press releases and think of them as sales flyers, "what are they really selling me here?".

What The Excuses are selling, and you are buying, is basically the same team as last year at basically the same cost ($10M under what they could have spent, and sold to you).

My goal was to vent, so HOPEFULLY, someone sitting around The Excuses marketing table would mutter "Hey, the fans are getting restless". If that happened, it was probably followed by "don't worry, these fans will come back at this level, trust me. They WANT to believe more than you would believe."

While it is fair to debate whether another $5 or $10 million would actually improve the team, I think falling ticket sales would spur investment. I also think Darcy is one of the best GMs out there and would find utility out of another $5 or $10 Million and thus the team would improve. Maybe I am dreaming but we won't find out cause the fans will keep us sold out at $46 Million invested.

If I am right here, The Excuses are doomed to mediocrity and we are doomed to cheering for making a run at the playoffs, not winning a championship.

Given that 97% of season ticket holders re-upped and there is apparently a waiting list for more tells me I failed miserably. Hence my tilting at windmills comment as it was unrealistic to assume I could actually influence other fanaticals who are "bent" on cheering for their team, win or lose.

I will continue to cheer for them either way. I will continue to vent at the ownership. I will stop paying though and maybe next year season tickets fall. Or maybe next year they actually make a run in the playoffs and make me look bad. I prefer the latter too, but suspect the former.

Never meant anything personal at you or the other gang of five, it was all good natured fun that took an nasty turn or two. Not unlike the bantering of two friends in a bar, some of the sarcasm is nasty if taken that way. But I really meant no permanent scarring!

[Heather B.]

Aww, thanks, not fade away. That's awfully nice of you to say.

Excuses, "To dream the impossible dream" actually sums up my feelings pretty well. I do happen to like a lot of what management has done - but not all of it - and I do genuinely like a lot of things about the team and a lot of the players on it. It's not a perfect team but there have been steps in the right direction especially since I think last year's team underachieved. I would much rather dream the impossible dream and be wrong than expect the worst and be right.

[not fade away]

and finally...pominville 4 years, 21 mil

[not fade away]

ps. as for the sabres being cheap...they had one of the three highest paid players in the league on their team in 07-08 (vanek). one of the sainted players they lost, mr. briere, was also in the top 3. so you're telling me that the buffalo sabres should have two of the three highest paid players in the league? really? and i'm sure they should have drury, too, for another $7 mil or whatever he got...does that make a lot of sense?

[not fade away]

if you think heather and kate are "new" bloggers, dude, then it shows just how out of touch you are. those are two of the best sabres bloggers out there. just because they dont always jump into the mess of negativity that is "the sabres edge" doesnt make them "new."

[Buffalo Excuses]

Interesting. Lots of "new" bloggers here. Has the marketing muscle of The Excuses decided to multiply and conquer?

I have always intended to watch most, if not all, the games this year. The "leaving the crack open" comment is off base. My note was a reflection of the fact that I will still watch them anyway, I just won't spend money on them if I can avoid it. I will still cheer for them and come here for a beating if they win.

What is funny to me is that the new posters here remind me of real estate investors 3 years ago. All excited and "buying" something that really isn't there. The "Dreams" "Hopes" "Magic" are really Castles in the sky and trading on vapor.

But that's what being a fan is all about, at least in Buffalo. Believing in miracles. Winning despite the odds makes it that much more fun. After all, what else are you going to do in Buffalo in January besides go on vacation? Maybe that's what I will do with the dough I save. Go down to Tampa to watch The Excuses compete in the sun. Have to check the schedule for that one.

My posts were intended to voice what I thought was a growing unhappinness with the cheapness of The Excuses frittering away their chance at a cup to make $5-$10 million more. I still believe that is the case. I still believe we will have the exact same arguments next year but for a couple of name changes.

But what I have to concede is that the fans of The Excuses are buying it, in droves. I think it reflects the Quixotic culture of buffalo..."To dream the impossible dream".

I have had to check some of my comments that were critical of those fans, Chad, Elma et al. If they are indeed fans and not hired peddlers by The Excuses that is. It isn't the fans I am angry at by any stretch of the imagination. The people of Buffalo are wonderful, even if they are a little dreamy. But for savvy marketers to come into my hometown and take advantage of those dreams, well that sort of stinks to put it mildly.

Maybe it was quixotic of me to think I could influence other fans. Sort of like coaxing your buddy out of a bar BEFORE he has had too much to drink, and then try coaxing the keys out of his hands...Ain't gonna happen in Buffalo! So Tom and Larry will keep pouring the elixir to quell the masses.

For me, I will just stay off the roads in the early morning hours of the weekends...

[Marc in Northern Virginia]

Miller got too much money. He is mediocre at best. When will the Sabres learn. Give the money to the proven players. Drury, Briere, Campbell had proven themselves Sabres gave them nothing. Miller has a mediocre year open up the vault? Should have been an incentive based contract, you do better, we'll give you more. Pratt was solid last year they should make sure they sign.

[Dave]

What a bunch of pathetic whiners we have in this city. Dear god, shut up, you losers. Seriously, have you folks nothing better to do than complain on the internet about the Sabres? The team will be fine this year. Relax.

[twoeightnine]

If you're always a fan Excuses why do you only watch 8 games a year? I think you might want to check that hitch of yours.

[Darcy Reiger]

6 for 27

[Heather B.]

"Cromulent? Cromulent? That's outstanding."

Not enough Simpsons in your TV diet, Mike.

[Tricky Dick]

My prediction: Excuses will continue boring us with his "excuses" why he won't jump on the bandwagon--even though he makes sure to keep leaving the door open a crack, just in case....

[Buffalo Excuses]

Only in Buffalo can the majority of fans get so excited over basically the same team that missed the playoffs last year.

Good luck and God's Speed. We're gonna need it.

At 97% renewal rate for season ticket holders The Excuses have no reason to spend more. Look for the runoff of Afinigenov et al to pay for this. BY then, we will be rehashing how good the young ones are that will be making their way to stardom in 2010.

Looking forward to catching
the season on TV this year.

Always a fan.

Not always happy.

Sometimes disgruntled.

Still not satisfied.

I will tune in every 10 games or so to take what is apparently coming to me from the gang of five. I sincerely don't see it happening though. Playoffs at best for The Excuses

No better than 6th in the conference.

No significant moves at the deadline (at least coming our way).

Chad, Elmo and friends, any predictions on the upcoming season?

[Mike Harrington]

Cromulent? Cromulent? That's outstanding. Amy, I had to go to dictionary.com for that one and review your blog to see if you're regularly using some polysyllabics that I suppose I should know but have not heard of!

[Amy]

Both 5/25 and 6/24 are perfectly cromulent offers and I would have no problem with the Sabres signing Pominville to either of them. He really proved himself this past season, especially since most people expected him to fall flat on his face without having Briere around to play with.

[Heather B.]

Kate, it's safe to say I've never been more inspired by a comment here. That was beautiful!

[Katebits]

While logically I can understand why we don't want all the contracts coming up at the same time, I think 5/25, by its very nature flies in the face of logic. 5/25 is not about logic! It is about magic, and rainbows, and dreams coming true! We mustn't deny ourselves the miraculous beauty of 5/25 because we were too scared to reach out and grab it when we had the chance. OUR CHANCE IS NOW!

5/25! 5/25! 5/25!

[Jeff]

5/25!!!!!!!

Just to rub it in Campbell's face, give it to Pommer.

5/25!!!!

[Heather B.]

Katebits, I don't know why we haven't done the 5/25 shirts already. We've been asleep at the wheel.

dan, does make a good point though. Definitely don't want everyone coming up for renewal at the same time...

(Still... 5/25!)

[danp727]

I think signing Miller was a much needed move the Sabres but signing Pominville is equally as important. The challenge becomes looking ahead. When Pominville’s current contract expires at the end of this coming season, Roy will have 4 years remaining on his contract and Miller and Vanek will have 5 years remaining on their contracts and then all three are looking at unrestricted free agency.

Remember, too, that Roy contact pays more each year and in the final year he is earning $5.5MM. To avoid negotiating with both Pominville and Roy or Pominville, Vanek and Miller all in the same year, I think I would go for a six year deal similar to what Roy signed for last year, but the dollars are going to be considerably higher.

Jason’s a strong two way player and one capable of scoring in shootouts. I think 6 years at $28 to $30MM would not be out of the ball park. Consider that Afinogenov, Connolly, Kotalik and Spacek will all become UFA at the end of this season and that’s about $12MM in cap money that may become available.

Like the ad says ... Just do it!!!

[Katebits]

Heather, I think we should get those "5/25" t-shirts made. Getting Miller signed was great and all, but this community won't be truly healed from last summer until we get that 5/25 monkey off our back. It will haunt us until it gets done. Pommers is the one!

5/25! 5/25! 5/25!

[Heather B.]

I think we're going to have to pay Pominville more than Roy. The market changes rapidly from year to year and as the cap goes up, teams are going to spend more on their important pieces. It's unfortunate but I'm not sure you can really compare contracts signed under a $50 million cap to contracts signed under a $57 million cap. Sucks for Roy who will end up being desperately underpaid but that's the current system.

5/25! 5/25! 5/25!

[Chad]

Rick, I'd love it if they could get Pominville at Roy's price right now. Unfortunately, I don't think that's how things will work. At this point, based on his production, Roy has a below-market contract. Unfortunately, agents will never point to the below-market contracts, they'll point to the recent, ridiculous contracts. Based on the recent deals for Horcoff and Perry, both of whom Pominville has outproduced by leaps and bounds, Pominville's number will probably come out pretty high.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if his agent didn't deal in good faith this summer, waiting to see how Pominville does this season. If he puts up 80 pts again, the price will go up and he'll probably want to field offer sheets. I hope that doesn't happen. I have to admit, though, for agents seeking top dollar, that is the way to play it (see Vanek, Thomas).

[Rick]

Cant pay him more than Roy, but should pay him close to the same. they are good friends to my knowledge and lived together when they came up from Rochester. We need them both. Along with Vanek, they will be great NHL players and Sabres for years. They can get it done for us.

[Thomas]

I wonder what Crusader's rant Bucky will go on once this deal is done as well...

[Chad]

I think hoping for anything below $5 mil/year is a bit of wishful thinking. Corey Perry got 5/$26.6 mil this summer. Here's a comparison with Pominville over the last two seasons:

Pommers: 61 G's, 87 assts, 148 pts (164 gms)

Corey Perry: 46 G's, 52 assts, 98 pts (152 gms)

If I know this, surely Pominville's agent knows this. Unfortunately, contracts are often determined based on comparable contracts signed most recently. I think we'll see something in the neighborhood of 5 yrs/$28 mil.

[Mighty Larry]

Can't pay him more than Roy, can he?

[Katebits]

Yeah, if someone doesn't get the 5 for 25 deal eventually I'm going to be devastated. I want to believe.

[Tom]

I see no way Pominville gets less than 4 million and, in fact, he might be closer to 5 million per.

I would love to see him locked up longterm. Say 6 years at 30 million.

[Heather B.]

I would actually love for him to get the mythical, magical 5/25 contract. It's fair AND it's funny!

[John Rigas]

Let's give Darcy the tools to win a cup.3 years/9 million sounds fair.

[Puckface]

Ok, please xcuse the bad math. I was thinking a little over 4 per season, so 5 years at $22 mil. I think he'll prove to be well worth it.

[Puckface]

I like Pomminville. He's a classy kid, with his best years to come. I'd give him 5 years at $18 mil, easy.