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July 09, 2009

Rebuilding?

It's early in the summer, but based on the lack of moves by the Sabres and the numerous moves by other teams in the conference, it looks like a rebuilding year in Buffalo. Tim Kennedy and Nathan Gerbe figure to be part of that rebuilding.

If that's the case -- if the Sabres, who failed to make the playoffs the past two seasons, are rebuilding -- is that OK with you? Would you rather see them go with the youngsters and work toward the future, or sign serviceable vets like Matt Ellis, etc., to make a rookie-mistake-free push toward the playoffs?

---John Vogl

Comments

The Sabres have been rebuilding for the past two seasons. It's time to restock the team with motivated players. Who are we kidding, this group of losers will never accomplish anything except collect large pay checks they haven't earned.

Brian,

Exactly. We have an owner not that interested in winning. Only the bottom line.

The sabres just do enough to fill those seats. What do you expect, they see attendence figures and like em.

Just stating what is quite obvious. I didn't say I liked it. In fact, I don't at all.

"2 to 4 yrs from cup contention ?"

Wow ! I can't wait.

If we go alond with your theory, Mike F., as slow as these clowns move, Global warming will make Buffalo as warm as Florida by the time this team is consider a Cup contender.

Whether people want to realize it or not... this team's management have taken the stance of being in a slow rebuild ever since Drury & Briere walked. No question about it.

You can gripe about it till the cows come home, but those are the facts. That's their stance. Slow rebuild back into real contention. Don't pay attention to any of the comments they make to the media, because that is simple postering they must do to save face and fans from being outraged over false promises. So they don't make any. They simply stay relatively quiet... and over time... their actions speak volumes about what they have been doing and are doing. Slow rebuild. It's (to them anyway) the best "economic" plan.

Now I am sure to hear from some about how 'crazy" this is and they "should tell us they are rebuilding."

And you tell me what good that will do... or how different that will make you feel. I mean come on. Look at what is happening. It's pretty clear. They have drafted a host of young defensemen with Tyler Myers leading the way... and they are on a 2 to 4 year plan to get back into real cup contention.

This is how the Sabres organization operates. Whether you like it or not.

Maybe they should have moved Connolly, Spacek and possibly Hecht at the trade deadline this past spring...that would have signified a "rebuild" or something along those lines...

might not be able to avoid it in 2010 when they land a top 7 pick in the June entry draft.

The Sabres "are" and "have been" a joke for decades, when you watch the playoffs it isn't hard to realize that they're not even in the same league. The goal of any pro sports franchise is win the top prize, anything short is an excuse. If Golisano doesn't have the money to build a real team, then sell it. My feeling is he doesn't even care, you're no savor Tom. These lack of moves year after year disgust me. The sabres have done the status quo for decades, thier media addresses are arrogant. The sabres fans aren't stupid, decade after decade we're stuck with a sub par AHL Team. In any seven game playoff series the "midgets" with no edge in speed get hammered and loose whatever edge they had, after that they're battling players for 4 games with the same speed and 40 more pounds each. Calgary and San Jose are a perfect example of size and talent.
Either go for broke or take this mockery of a professional sports franchise some where else,
Buffalonians have had enough!

No matter what I don't see the Sabres competing well against the teams in the East. The Penquins, Flyers, Bruins, and Rangers all have superior teams right now leaving Buffalo a small shot at a 7 or 8th place playoff spot along with Montreal, Toronto, and Tampa Bay. My hunch is the Sabres will be in the same place they were the last two seasons in the final 3 weeks of the season. Golisano and Quinn haven't gotten it through their heads that in the last three seasons a wave of talent has moved into the East from free agency and the draft and that the talent level greatly improved compared to the post-lockout days.

Not another rebuilding year!!! Think the fans are tired of rebuilding every year. Why because we don't sign quality players for the long term. They get to expensive, gone and we start all over again.

Give Buffalo what they deserve an NHL Stanley Cup.
I am not leaving out a super bowl.

Peter F. ...you must be smoking the same pipe that Ruff and the other 3 stooges are smoking.

This team is a joke and it will be a minor league team in the near future.

From top to bottom this franchise recites the same retired/recycled BS from year to year.

These players nowadays (especially the ones the Sabres feel are valuable) have no vested interest at getting better, they enjoy their paydays and do not want any part of playing the way you have to to win the Stanley Cup.

The Sabres missed the playoffs because of Miller's injury NOW that is hillarious!! They did themselves a favor because there was not one team that the Sabres had a chance in hell at beating in the playoffs.

Thanks guys for sparing us Buffalo sports fans from yet another embarrassment in the sports world.

A 7 year contract for a 35 year old definitely should stick out.

Another season on the horizon to be wasted for sure. Yea, they'll keep the turnstiles turning.. that's about it and fall short of the playoffs by a hair. FORE!!! Not me.. I'm done. This Sabres fan since '72 is through..

Wow 70 plus comments. We, the fans, should own the Sabres. We're the ones that care. 70 plus comments during the offeseason ??!!

And during a time where the Sabres, during free agency, only sign Montador (not bad) and Ellis, a player that's been on the Sabres team last year. I can live with the Sabres going for value players. Fine. But some more action from HSBC would be nice. Is anyone working in Sabreland ?

As a side note, I'm still a proponent in a trade of Tallinder and /or Lydman for draft picks then trade a combo of draft picks, since those two useless D-men are off the books, for 1 D man and a power forward. We did the same thing last year to get Rivet. And both Lydman and Tallinder are UFA's after this season, so trade them now before the season starts to get the talent we need to be competitive.

But no, instead the message by Sabre brass to the fans:
We know we needed size and grit, so we signed Montador, a free agent, then we didn't want to spend anymore money (after a measly 3 million dollars for two yrs spent on the new guy), so we signed Ellis, who's on the team already and nobody wants him. And nobody wanted him last year since we picked him up off waivers, so we'll take him on the cheap for 1 yr. Nice, Darcy, Montador for two and Ellis for 1 and you spent a total of 4 million.

Meanwhile, did you see the movement by the other Northeast teams ? ...the list is long but the one that sticks out for me is Pronger is going to Philly.

Where are we going to land next season in the standings Tommy, Larry and Darcy, with the help of Montador and Ellis, NINTH ?

If he were younger, you'd be right. There's a big difference between a down year and losing a step. I don't look at Jochen as a second line forward or a 20 goal scorer anymore. If any GM did, I don't think he'd be here anymore.

If he scores 20 goals for each of the next 3 years of his contract, I'll eat this microphone.

Jeff,

Your analysis of Hecht relies upon a myopic focus on Hecht's down year in 2008-2009. Would some GMs be so put off by his abysmal 2008-2009 campaign as to refuse to trade for Hecht? Absolutely, but you can't tell me that there aren't plenty of GMs that would take a more nuanced look and say, "Hey, this guy had a down year, but in seasons past he has pretty consistently been (blank) kind of player." I think that blank for most GMs is a twenty-goal scorer, a versatile second-liner, a solid two-way player, a penalty killer, a player with a consistently high plus/minus, etc.

Second-line forwards that can score 20 goals per year are often paid more than $3 million per year. While some teams might not see Hecht as that kind of player anymore, I would imagine that a lot still do. Hockey players have good years and bad and NHL personnel guys understand that.

Contracts are given based on expected production. An ugly Hecht goal might count as much beautiful Kotalik goal, but it does factor into things. 3m is too much for Al, but it's not hard to see a team looking at him and thinking he can score 30 for them. The fact that a change of scenery sparked his production helps his cause. There's a big difference between looking at 19 games with a new team versus any 19 game period with the same team. Even the most optimistic Sabre fan would be thrilled if Jochen finds a way to bounce in 15 this year and get rid of that ugly -9.

Hecht looks like he's aging fast. When assessing his value, you can't look at his best years. He's not playing anywhere near that caliber. He was 12-15-27 last year, and -9. If he were a UFA right now, he'd be fortunate to find 1m. Matt Ellis and Dan Paille both compare favorably to him, and are better comparisons than Kotalik.

Jeff,

"Al had 7 goals in his time with Edmonton, that is 30 goal pace."

You really think it's fair to look at a small slice, and by far the best slice, of a player's season and project those numbers out 82 games? If so, I could be selective and project Macarthur, Paille, Hecht and others out to be 30 goal scorers. I could also project Steve Bernier out to averaging 164 goals per season given the results of his first game in Buffalo. Fair enough? Such a projection is deceitful and not particularly useful.

"The typical Kotalik goal is a 100mph one timer or a break away, where he is among the best in the NHL. The typical Hecht goal is a bad angle shot that miraculously goes in."

Seriously? I don't care if Hecht bounces 15 goals per year off the goalie's crotch. A goal is a goal and they all have the same value. You can say that I don't watch the games, I love Hecht, I'm Hecht's agent, whatever you want, but you can't get around the numbers. The players' production is not that different!

I obviously don't love Hecht. I would love to see him moved. I'm simply arguing against those that say that he's untradeable. And in making the determination of a players' worth, I am more liable to look at the contracts of comparable players in the league than accepting the arbitrary "$1 million" number from a hockey aficianado on the Buffalo News message board.

CalgarySabres,

Good point about the shootout goals. Fair enough. However, what is the monetary value of a player that scores shootout goals? I don't know the answer. I suspect some teams consider it very closely and others ignore it. I don't think it's worth a lot of money and really don't think it invalidates the close statistical comparison between Hecht and Kotalik, but that's my conjecture.

Just a reminder on buyouts:

Contracts are bought out at 2/3 their remaining value and paid over 2x their remaining length. They do count against the cap, though the structure and payout of the contract impact the hit.

I can't see them buying out Hank or Lydman. Hecht might be if he doesn't bounce back this season.

Vandy, you sound like someone who hasn't watched the Sabres much the past few years. Hecht and Kotalik are not remotely similar offensive players. Anyone who watches them knows that. Hockey stats just don't break down like baseball. It's very easy to stand up either of them next to Chris Drury's 22 goals and say they are 8m players. Unless you're Hecht's agent, you look foolish for making such simple comparisons.

Al had 7 goals in his time with Edmonton, that is 30 goal pace. I don't think many people here would be surprised to see him score 30 in the right situation. He's not worth 3m, but no one has ever accused the Ranger's of being smart.

The typical Kotalik goal is a 100mph one timer or a break away, where he is among the best in the NHL. The typical Hecht goal is a bad angle shot that miraculously goes in.

Hecht's value at this point in his career is 1m or less. I don't understand your love for him.

My last day here.

How appropriate that the "BIG announcement" is Ellis, "Matt Flippin Ellis", was signed today.

"career highs in goals (7), assists (5) and points (12)"

No other response necessary other than you can't even call this guy mediocre.

This is funny, it really is. So very EASY to walk away from all the excitement of The Excuses Mediocre Meandering through the Meat of the offseason.

mmmmmMEDIOCRE!!!!!

I will post a few more times today but this is an AWESOME way to cap off the team.

Matt Ellis. WOW!

Couple of comments. 1) given that nobody wants to play in Edmonton (Cole, Pronger, even Kotalik) and that payback is sweet, surely the Oilers must have some UFAs or RFAs that the Sabres could make offers to. I mean the whole team is not a bust. 2) The Kotalik v. Hecht comparisons are interesting, but ignore Kotalik's goals in shootouts. They do not "count" as official goals, but they do win you games, and I don't recall ever seeing Hecht in a shootout. Now having said that, the amount the Rangers gave Kotalik is goofy, but that team just cannot bear having cap space available. (Must run with the city, the Yankees can't resist throwing money away either.)

Trade Quinn and Tommy G.

Trade Darcy.

The only thing they are building is a lower salary structure.

Matt Ellis looks to be a good signing. Cheap and decent. The Sabres should just buyout either Tallinder or Lydman and get Mara. He is cheap and very solid. Mike K how can you call the Sabres a minor league team??? They just barely lost out on the playoff race 'cause of Miller's injury. They aren't the Islanders. You people should just be patient. Regier likes to take his time. By September I expect the Sabres to be a playoff team.

For any of those who were looking to grab McKee, looks like you lost out:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09191/983051-100.stm

Jeff,

Pretty weak response there. So let's just throw out all the numbers, all those objective pieces of data that demonstrate that Hecht and Kotalik are comparable second/third line forwards with comparable stats and comparable contracts.

In the place of that objective data we have some conjecture from you.

1. Kotalik "looked" like a thirty-goal scorer.

Nevermind the fact that he scored 11 points in 19 games (not particularly impressive) and "looked" so great that Edmonton let him walk without offering him a contract.

2. Hecht doesn't "look" like a goal scorer on his best days.

What does that even mean? What does a goal scorer look like? Do goals scored by players that "look" like goal scorers count more? Because if you examine the stats, Hecht is not that far off from Kotalik in the goal-scoring department.

Instead of trying to uncover the underlying essence of these guys, just be objective and look at their actual numbers. These guys aren't that different. And Hecht, while overpaid, is not THAT overpaid if you look at his recent career in perspective.

Unconfirmed: McKee to Pens 1y deal, $800K.

Rebuilding, not again. Rebuilding is the phrase teams use when they are not aggressive to keep players who they feel cost to much, then let them go. Rebuilding is a word teams use when they don't want to imporve through free agency and bring in cheap labor.
I hope this is not going to be another rebuilding year.

Stop buying tickets and merchandise...that's the only way this team is going to understand that we, the fans and supporters of this so called "NHL" franchise, want some proof that this team actually wants to win anything. This team is good enough to be a minor league team SO we should have tickets priced as such. If we keep selling out HSBC and Ralph Wilson Stadium...we tell the Sabres and the Bills that its O.K. to remain status quo, to remain mediocre at best. Who wants to actually see Buffalo win any pro sports championship anyways? We fool ourselves every year thinking it would/could be different than the last. Thanks for nothing Golisano and Wilson, I hope you both enjoy the profits you bleed from all of us saps.

It's easy to stand Hecht's numbers next to Kotalik's and pretend that the situation is similar. You can do the same thing and make a lot of players worth 7m the same way.

The fact is, Al cashed in on his strong play in Edmonton. If you saw him there, you'd barely recognize him. He looked like a 30 goal scorer, and now he's being paid like one.

Hecht doesn't look like a goal scorer on his best days. At this point, he's a 3rd or 4th liner. If he were a UFA, he'd be looking for 1m. He's a closer comparison to Matt Ellis.

rag indeed. for what it's worth, there are various ratings of the top prospects not in the nhl, and the only sabre property showing up in the top 100 is enroth. anyone who thinks kennedy and gerbe (or mancari) are coming in here and being anything but third or fourth liners is smoking crack. and puhleez remember guys like like hecht were thrust into roles they never held at any time in the nhl. blame him if you want, but the sabres expected him to be a dependable scorer and top six, when he was only that for a few weeks of a ten year career. wanna rebuild? fine. but have some kind of clue evaluating players.

It's been over three hours since Matt Ellis signed. No blog, no article. This is the media outlet you entrust to receive your Sabres news? What a rag.

i love the idiots that think there is a conspiracy among the administrators of this board to root out certain individuals' comments. if you have profane language or inappropriate comments then sure they're going to block it. come on. they work for the buffalo news. this isn't fox news, these folks aren't out to create conspiracies

Kovalev to Ottawa, Smyth to LA, Pronger to Philly, Hossa to Chicago and Ellis to Buffalo. Stanley Cup.....HERE WE COME!!!!!

Holy Moly. 51 comments in 9 hours. way too many to read. agree with the very first post. if rebuilding, let us know. some transparency. all around the league we're known as some of the loyalist fans. how bout being loyal to us.

At least if they suck again, it's out with Darcy and Lindy. Well, according to what's been thrown around this year, but yeah. We'll see.

Vogl, I hope it was rhettorical. Of course it isn't OK with any of us, as I'm sure it is not OK with you

First off, it's July 9th. You would think the season starts tomorrow. By the end of the stupid money being thrown around, there will be more than a handful of teams that will have to cut salary. It benefits Darcy to wait even another month to find the best deal, much like the one he pulled for rivet when the sharks were in cap trouble.

As for those that don't think the cap will go down, what universe do you live in? The cap was set to go down but the nhlpa essentially opted for a clause to keep it the same for one more year. It will be significantly lower in 2010-11.

Since the lockout:

Kotalik - 302 games, 84 goals, 102 assists, -18

Hecht - 285 games, 71 goals, 103 assists, +21

So what we have here are two players with comparable stats: one more proficient at scoring goals, one vastly more competent as a two-way player (+/- difference of 39 is the only substantial difference post-lockout).

Let's look at the average yearly salary for the remainder of their respective contracts -

Kotalik - $3 million

Hecht - $3.5 million

And you want to tell me that one just cashed in with a free agent deal on a playoff team and Hecht is completely untradeable? Doesn't make sense. Is Hecht overpaid? Yes. Is he so overpaid relative to comparable second-line forwards as to be untradeable? No. What's the going rate for a twenty-goal scorer? Well, it's about $3 million per year.

Furthermore, the Erik Cole comparison from earlier is not really a fair one. Cole accepted a contract from Carolina below market value because he had a lousy experience in Edmonton and saw that what he had in Carolina, the winning, the success, was much more desirable than the alternative, even at a lower price. He went with the devil he knew.

"The ownership and culture of the organization is cast in stone. Ownership is lazy and does not have to put a winning product on the ice. Players are lazy and just collect paychecks."

...and now to add to that because this has been the theme of the day and instead of getting new blood, our Sabres just signed Matt Ellis. Thanks Tommy, Larry, and Darcy. I feel sorry for those loyalist that bought season tickets. Hey, I might actually root for the Bills more than the Sabres this year. I wasn't known to do that in years past, then again I see who runs "my team"- the Sabres franchise.

How can you root for a team where its management continues to put out the same product, give or take, year after year AND expect its loyal fans to keep coming back ?....AND we do keep coming back ???... and let me give you the painful pill that needs to be swallowed, present day; we are NOT a playoff team.

I'll start by not buying a single Sabres merchandise item with my hard earned dollar. Those clowns at HSBC running the Sabres won't spend it on good players anyway. Hopefully, then, somebody will get the message or are they just going to make excuses, something they're good at, and blame slow merchandise sales on the economy.

Hecht: gritty 2 way player, 20 goal scorer who just needs a change of scenery to do it again

or

Hecht: old, slow forward with 3 years left on a contract that massively overpays him. Scored 20 goals a few years ago from bad angles or crazy bounces.

Also, you can't mention Hecht without reminding people that he is Lindy's favorite player. He's only movable for somebody else's dead weight. Lindy would prefer his own dead weight, so he's not going anywhere.

Hecht's deal completely cleared for a draft pick sounds great. The problem is, in the real world, the trade looks more like Hecht and a 2nd rounder for someone else's 7th rounder...and that's generous.

Sabres re-sign Matt Ellis for one season. On that note the offseason is complete. See you guys next year.

This philospohy of this management is going to keep the Sabres mired in mediocrity. They think their core is good enough, and this year it appears they aren't even interested in bringing their RFAs back. The so called bargins you may find for a few hundred thousand dollars less in August will only make them good enough to lose in crunch time, because the other teams spent more on better quality players. What is the plan here? How many championships does fiscal restraint win?

Sabres ownership/management can afford to wait another year or two to 'fix the roster'.

Dolts that buy all those tickets have assured that.

Accept that the roster will not change much more, if at all, from last year. Now consider: what would make the players exhibit some drive, determination and guts?

I say nothing will do that.

The ownership and culture of the organization is cast in stone. Ownership is lazy and does not have to put a winning product on the ice. Players are lazy and just collect paychecks.

Until Quinn & Golisano are gone, nothing will change for the better.

Someone (preferably players and ownership) prove me wrong.

This whole concept of the Sabres "rebuilding" is a joke.
Let's assume the best-case scenario happens, and all their young prospects turn into star players. That would ensure a championship, right? Wrong -- because once a player turn into a star, they WON'T RE-SIGN him. Their whole approach guarantees they will stay at the same level -- which isn't good enough.

Mike F,

Hecht is the most difficult player to trade on this roster. At $3.8 million per year, Hecht makes too much money for what he brings to the team. No one would question that. That said, if the numbers that I've seen are correct, Ales Kotalik is going to be making $3 million per season for three years with the Rangers. Who would you rather have on your team? Last year, Kotalik had superior numbers, though his numbers weren't great either. Over the course of his career, Hecht has put up comparable numbers to Kotalik, but Hecht can play a little defense and contributes on the PK as well as the PP. My point is that while Hecht's contract is out of whack, it's not so onerous relative to the going rate for 20-goal scorers as to make Hecht completely untradeable. I would be awfully surprised if Regier could not find some interest in Hecht, especially considering that in every major sport, there are always a handful of GMs that think, "What that guy needs is a change of scenery! Once he gets on our team..." While Hecht has plenty of detractors, people around here act like we're trying to trade Andrew Peters. Hecht has qualities that hockey teams value, despite a wretched season in 2008-2009.

But, suppose I were to accept your argument that Hecht is untradeable and I don't think you're making an indefensible argument. That to me, does not justify utter inactivity. While Hecht may be difficult to move, the Sabres, as all teams, have assets that other teams desire. More importantly, they have serious deficiencies to attend to if they hope to compete at a level that we as Sabres fans expect.

To say that Hecht is difficult to move is accurate. To imply that the Sabres are somehow so handcuffed to bad contracts that they are unable to act to improve their roster is a stretch.

Kotalik getting big money? How will we ever catch up with The Rangers?

Why doesn't Darcy ever make deals like that?

^^^^^^
Wrong. 3yr/$9M= $3M/yr. Not a bargain.

correction...kotalik is getting $3M a year. TSN had it at $1M a year.
http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=284213
glad to see him eating up cap space for the rangers...talk about overpaid underachievers...life is good when the rangers are tossing around money.

Kotalik to Rangers; 3yr deal for $1M/yr. That almost seems like a bargain...

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