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November 06, 2009

Offensive differences in Sabres-Flyers

It would be tough to find teams with more wildly different philosophies. The Sabres will take the HSBC Arena ice tonight intent on using all four lines equally. If the Flyers are going to score, it's usually two lines that are going to do it.

More than 86 percent of Philadelphia's forward production has come from its top six forwards. The fourth line has contributed only 4.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Sabres' four lines are chipping in at rates of 37 percent, 31.5 percent, 17.8 percent and 13.7 percent.

The offensive disparity can be traced to different financial plans. Since the salary cap was instituted, Sabres General Manager Darcy Regier has been a proponent of a balanced pay scale. The Flyers like high-priced stars and lower-paid complements. That said, those stars can take over a game, and usually do.

So, what's your preference? A handful of All-Star, Olympic-caliber players capable of scoring any shift surrounded by pluggers, or a group of relatively even units that still have talent up top?

---John Vogl

Comments

typical pathetically weak vogl twist. there is no 'balanced scoring history.' there is no 'logically better' version. (not your points, vogl.) the flyers have owned the sabres since they ran hitchcock and clarke out of town. cups are won by big plays from big players. there is no philosophy or goal with the sabres. they are mediocrity personified. the flyers have decided to completely overturn their roster the last three years, and managed to stockpile more talent on injured lists than the sabres have playing. and the flyer players are ridiculously better. it's not 12 against six, it's more like maybe 2 against six. no cups lately for the flyers, but they are light years closer than you-know-who.

Dan, you need to consider power play production as well. Patrick Kaleta doesn't play the power play, so he doesn't score any points beside 5-on-5. Connolly leads the team in points because he contributes on the power play while sprinkling in some 5-on-5 points along the way.

That Patrick Kaleta has FOUR points at this part of the season shows just how balanced the scoring is on this team. I think it proves exactly that the team is balanced. And ya know what, it is working. The team is 9-2-1 and hardly shows signs of slowing down right now.

That being said, Philly had Buffalo's number last season. The skill on that team wasn't limited to the top two lines. This year, they lost a few of the team's top role players to free agency, while losing Marty Biron (who loves to play against his former team and usually does well). This year, it'll be a different match-up. I think the Sabres have a chance, which I couldn't say last year.

I’m not so sure about balanced scoring. When you look at even strength goals and assists the first two lines look pretty ordinary. Tyler Myers is the head of the class with 2G/4A and even Patrick Kaleta is ahead of Tim Connelly with 2G/2A vs Tim’s 1G/2A.

And even the power play stats are pretty ordinary … 17th in the league … 11 PPG in 59 PPO vs the Flyers 16 PPG in 57 PPO.

It seems like the 3rd and 4th lines have been working hard and setting the table for the big money guys who haven’t been responding by working hard themselves. It’s still early but so far it’s been the hard workers who have been impressive and take away Vanek and MacArthur and you’re left with a bunch of perimeter shooters who pass off instead of going to the net.

Well, considering the Sabres record this year, it's no wonder most people are voting for the Sabres four line attack. But if you would have asked this last year, it would have been an avalanche in favor of "Give us All-Star talent!"

I still think having a ridiculously talented first line can go a long way in this league. But it's about surrounding your All-Stars with the right guys. Tampa lately hasn't seemed to be able to take advantage of Vinny and St. Louis...but Pittsburgh sure knows how to surround Crosby and Malkin.

And I'd trade our entire team for Ovechkin. Just sayin'.

As a follow up to Dude's comments: the Detroit Red Wings are the poster boy for a g.m. who says "I do not spend money on goalies" and it has worked out well for them. I prefer the "rolling 4 lines" if you can do it. It is easier to stop one or two stars per team than 3 - 4 lines that might score. And if your star goal scorers get injured (such as that short guy on the Flyers who always seems to have a groin or ab strain) you can be in serious trouble.

This will be a big test for this team--
Score early (and often) on Emery.
When Kaleta plays his game and draws penalties, the power play has to get shots on net.
They need to be ready for the physical game the Flyers will bring. All four lines need to play well- they can't afford to not play for part of a period.
Take advantage of top players not playing for the Flyers tonight.

This is a good early-season litmus test for the Swordsmen.

Get Emery off his game/lose his composure. Have Carcillo (aka Carcinogen) take stupid penalties.

The Sabres are spending 3x more in goaltending than the Flyers...this year. That was not the case the last 2 seasons.

The goaltending philosophy of both franchises has been the same for quite a while now. The Sabres, with Hasek and now with Miller, try to build their club from the goal out. The Flyers do the exact opposite. They've gone through goaltenders like kleenex, while concentrating on being big along the blueline and wings.

Both styles have had varying degrees of success, but neither team has a Cup (at least in the last 30+ years) to show for it.

"Sabres General Manager Darcy Regier has been a proponent of a balanced pay scale. The Flyers like high-priced stars and lower-paid complements."

OK, that's not really true, especially on the Forward side. Buffalo has 5 guys making more then $3 million, Philly has.....5 guys making more than $3 million. They both spend $34 million on Forwards. The pay scale is pretty similar between the 2 teams.

However, Philly has spent alot more on Defensemen....$10 million more than the Sabres.

Buffalo has spent 3 times more on goaltending.

I guess the question becomes -- where is it better to spend your $$$, on D or in goal? Philly has made the playoffs the last 2 years, Buffalo has not.

Personal preferences aside, history has shown that teams with a balanced attack are the ones with the greatest playoff success. It's simple logic that it's much harder to defend against 12 forwards/4 lines than it is 6 forwards/2 lines. The Flyers' approach may be more entertaining and produce flashier headlines because of the star-power but if winning is the goal, getting contributions from everyone is a better formula. The '99 Cup finalist Sabres were a posterchild for 4-line balance - and the '05-'06 team proved it as well.

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