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Sabres Stats: Playoff percentages

When I'm following a playoff series, I like to see what the odds are when a team has a particular advantage during the course of the season. In other words, I ask questions like, "How many times does the team with the extra home game win a series?" and "What is the home team's record in Game Sevens?".

So I did some counting, from the 2004 to 2010 playoffs. The chart below shows the results.

A series "favorite" is the one that has the extra home game. Let's take the Flyers-Sabres matchup as an example. Entering the series, favorites have won 61.1 percent of the series since 2004. That might be a little less than you'd think.

If the Flyers win tonight, they'd be comforted by the fact that 71.0 percent of favorites that win the first game go on to win the series. However, if the Sabres win tonight, the Flyers' chances would drop all the way down to 39.3 percent. If Buffalo comes home after Game Two with a split, its chances of advancing, historically speaking, are 50-50.

The biggest surprise here might be that a visiting team has won the majority of Game Sevens over the time span. Road teams went 4-0 in Games Sevens in 2010.

Series – Favorite Wins
0 – 0: 55-35 - .611
1 – 0 F: 44 – 18 - .710
1 – 0 U: 11 – 17 - .393
1 – 1: 19 – 19 - .500
2 – 0 F: 34 - 5 – .872
2 – 0 U: 2 –11 - .154
2 – 1 F: 28 – 13 - .683
2 – 1 U: 11 – 14 - .440
2 – 2: 20 – 14 - .588
3 – 0 F: 16 – 1 – .941
3 – 0 U: 0 – 7 - .000
3 – 1 F: 25 – 4 - .862
3 – 1 U: 1- 15 - .063
3 – 2 F: 28 – 7 – .800
3 – 2 U: 2 – 16 - .111
3 – 3: 9 - 12– .429

--- Budd Bailey

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John Vogl

John Vogl

John Vogl has been covering the Sabres since 2002-03, an era that has included playoff runs, last-place finishes and three ownership changes. The award-winning writer is the Buffalo chapter chairman for the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association.

@BuffNewsVogl | [email protected]

About Sabres Edge


Mike Harrington

Mike Harrington

Mike Harrington, a Canisius College graduate who began his career as a News reporter in 1987, has been covering the Buffalo Sabres since 2007. He is a member of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association and can vouch that exposed flesh freezes instantly when walking in downtown Winnipeg in January.

@BNHarrington | [email protected]


Amy Moritz

Amy Moritz

Amy Moritz, a native of Lockport, has a bachelor’s degree in journalism/mass communication from St. Bonaventure University and a master’s degree in humanities from the University at Buffalo. An endurance athlete, she has completed several triathlons, half marathons and marathons.

@amymoritz | [email protected]

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