When I'm following a playoff series, I like to see what the odds are when a team has a particular advantage during the course of the season. In other words, I ask questions like, "How many times does the team with the extra home game win a series?" and "What is the home team's record in Game Sevens?".
So I did some counting, from the 2004 to 2010 playoffs. The chart below shows the results.
A series "favorite" is the one that has the extra home game. Let's take the Flyers-Sabres matchup as an example. Entering the series, favorites have won 61.1 percent of the series since 2004. That might be a little less than you'd think.
If the Flyers win tonight, they'd be comforted by the fact that 71.0 percent of favorites that win the first game go on to win the series. However, if the Sabres win tonight, the Flyers' chances would drop all the way down to 39.3 percent. If Buffalo comes home after Game Two with a split, its chances of advancing, historically speaking, are 50-50.
The biggest surprise here might be that a visiting team has won the majority of Game Sevens over the time span. Road teams went 4-0 in Games Sevens in 2010.
Series – Favorite Wins
0 – 0: 55-35 - .611
1 – 0 F: 44 – 18 - .710
1 – 0 U: 11 – 17 - .393
1 – 1: 19 – 19 - .500
2 – 0 F: 34 - 5 – .872
2 – 0 U: 2 –11 - .154
2 – 1 F: 28 – 13 - .683
2 – 1 U: 11 – 14 - .440
2 – 2: 20 – 14 - .588
3 – 0 F: 16 – 1 – .941
3 – 0 U: 0 – 7 - .000
3 – 1 F: 25 – 4 - .862
3 – 1 U: 1- 15 - .063
3 – 2 F: 28 – 7 – .800
3 – 2 U: 2 – 16 - .111
3 – 3: 9 - 12– .429
--- Budd Bailey
tagged
Statistics
