ARCADIA, Calif. --- Get out your notebooks, pencils , calculators and stop watches. We're officially on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
The first important prep race, of course, was the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park on Saturday (Nov. 7).
Over the years, the Juvenile has been a key indicator of future Derby success, even though only one Juvenile winner (Street Sense in 2006) actually went on to win the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May. Last year, for instance, Mine That Bird finished 12th and last in the Juvenile at Santa Anita and then won the Derby three races later.
If that pattern holds true, go bet your future book money on D'Funnybone, the New York-based colt (stabled at Aqueduct with trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.) who ran 13th and last in the Breeders' Cup race.
Don't laugh. This was the only time in five career starts that D'Funnybone had raced on a synthetic surface. And, after watching races at Santa Anita for four days, I have come to agree with the widely-held opinion that "dirt horses" can't handle synthetics. The Juvenile is a throwout for D'Funnybone, who ran second for the first three-quarters of a mile, and should not be downgraded.
Another non-winning contender to emerge from the Juvenile is runner-up Lookin At Lucky, beaten by a head as the 2-1 favorite.
Leaving from post 13, he closed from 10th to be second and, as trainer Bob Baffert said, "He probably was the best horse, but the post killed him." There's no reason to think Lookin At Lucky is not going to be Baffert's main Derby horse.
"He showed today what a good horse he is," Baffert said. "It's just frustrating to know you have much the best horse and come up short like that. ... At least you know that you can look forward to the Derby."
Oh yes, the winner of the Juvenile was an Irish-bred, Dubai-owned bay colt named Vale of York.
Whether or not he'll become a Derby threat is yet to be known. As the Dubai-based Godolphin Stable does with all its good 3-year-olds, Vale of York will be taken home to winter in Dubai and train there for the Derby. This formula has so-far been unsuccessful and Godolphin has yet to earn a dime at the Derby.
"I think we're definitely [going to] take him back to Dubai and look at the New Guineas and the [Dubai] Derby there at the new race track that Sheikh Mohammed [Godolphin's owner] is building," said Simon Crisford, Godolphin's racing manager. "But after that we'll look at the Kentucky Derby. But we need to make it through the next stage first before we can make any firm committments."
Crisford said "of all the 2-year-olds we have right now, he would be the one we're looking at for Churchill Downs. But handling synthetic surfaces and racing on the dirt surface is two completely different things. So this horse will not have run on any dirt by time he gets to Churchill Downs if he gets there."
Crisford went on to say "the horse booked his ticket [to Churchill Downs] winning today. He's certainly booked his ticket to be given the respect to try to get there anyway. Let's hope he can get there."
Crisford said that before the Breeders' Cup victory, Vale of York was considered just the second best 2-year-old in the Godolphin stable. The best youngster was thought to be Buzzword, who finished fifth in Saturday's other Breeders' Cup race for 2-year-olds --- the Juvenile Turf --- at a mile on the grass. It was the first race in North America for Buzzword, who posted a 2-3-1 record in seven starts on the grass in England and France.
It also was the first race in the U.S. and on a non-grass surface for Pounced, the winner, who had won once and placed twice in his only career starts in England and France.
Nat Rothschild, owner of Pounced, was asked if he was dreaming about the Derby now.
"I just want to enjoy today, and this week, and this month, and even the rest of the year, savor this moment," Rothschild said. "I don't think about the next step."
But I do.
I'm going to put the names of D'Funnybone, Lookin At Lucky, Noble's Promise (third in the Juvenile followed by:) Piscitellli, Aikenite, Beethoven, Radiohead, William's Kitten, Eskendereya, Alfred Nobel, Pulsion and Aspire in my "Horses to Watch" list and buckle up for a long, hot and interesting fall, winter and spring. And maybe send a few "Future Book" bets to Las Vegas along the way.
The Derby this year is on May 1, just 174 days away. As the man tells the jockeys at the starting gate, "get tied on!"
--- Bob Summers

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