Sports, Ink

BALTIMORE, Md. -- Hello and greetings from Pimlico Race Course where we've been racing since 10:45 a.m. this morning on the longest day of racing of the calendar year. The stakes portion of the card is underway and the infield is full as we've been through six races on the card.

The rain has held off so far and it's cool and cloudy at Old Hilltop. Speed has been holding so far and there have been no big surprises on the undercard. I visited the Derby champion this morning and he was nibbling on the hay outside of traditional stall No. 40 in the Pimlico Preakness barn. Orb seemed to have his appetite and trainer Shug McGaughey sat relaxing knowing a big day lays ahead of him.

I spent an hour in the infield earlier and it is quite the scene with thousands partying and enjoying the music being played. Last year's infield handle was north of $3 million, so a few folks will also be wagering while enjoying the carnival-like atmosphere. HorseplayerNow has a tent set up for racing beginner's and I visited with handicapper Brian Nadeau earlier who said business has been brisk in the Racing 101 tent.

If you've never been to the Preakness, it's a must-see. There's not many places in America that have the mix of crowd that Pimlico brings together. The main acts on the infield are Pitbull and Macklemore (yes, I have no idea who that is) and you can hear the roars from outside the stage up here in the press box.

But we're ready for racing and we're live in a Pick-3 into the second leg in Race 7 where we have 1-Notacatbutallama, 6-Shining Copper and 10-Redwood Kitten, let's get this next leg home.

2:45 p.m.: Well then, if you boxed my top three you nailed the trifecta(the $2 tri paid $102) as the $100K James Murphy finished 10-6-1, with Redwood Kitten ($6.80) wiring the field in the one mile turf race. It also keeps us alive in a fairly chalky Pick-3 wager to 3-Moon Philly, 5-Sea Island, 6-Summer Applause and 7-Brushed By A Star. The will-pays for the $0.50 bet paying from $19 on the favorite 6-Summer Applause to $54.90 on 5-Sea Island. Only the 4-Daydreamin Gracie can beat us here.

2:55 p.m.: The Grade 3 Allaire Dupont Distaff is next which also starts the Pick-5 jackpot into the Preakness, if you're so inclined. Chad Brown has Johnny V up on the favorite Summer Applause who comes out of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn where she finished fourth behind the winner, who was the runner-up on Oaks Day On Fire Baby in the La Troienne won by Authenticity.

I'm rooting for the 5-Sea Island which is owned by Phipps Stable and trained by Shug McGaughey, both with a bigger rooting interest later this afternoon with a horse named Orb. Speaking of Orb, the current Preakness odds show him at 4-5. In case you missed my Preakness advance in this morning's paper, here is the link to it.

3:25 p.m.: 6-Summer Applause ($5.20) was much the best in the Dupont, holding off a late charging Sea Island. We cash a ticket which covers our next bet and move on. By the way, a heavy mist has enveloped Pimlico as feared before the day began. Let's hope it passes through quickly as we are just short of three hours until the Preakness. 

3:40 p.m.: The Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap for fillies and mares is up next going 8-1/2 furlongs on the turf course. We'll get a Pick-4 ticket started with four horses in the Gallorette. We've got 1-Hard Not to Like, 4-Samitar, 5-Old Tune and 9-Silver Screamer. I spend some time with Hard Not to Like at last year's Kentucky Oaks, she's a nice filly who should rebound off her last effort at Keeneland that was against tougher company. Silver Screamer is also a longer shot and gets Julien Leparoux, a great turf jockey in the irons. 

It appears it could get a little messy in the infield with this heavy mist...last check of the radar does not show any green blobs (a sign that bad things are to come) nor does it show anything close by, so I'm hoping this will pass over or just lightly mist until the big race. It would be a shame if the first two jewels are marred by off tracks.

3:55 p.m.: In case you were wondering, Pitbull is in the house.

4:10 p.m.: Hard Not to Like had me fairly excited coming down the stretch, but she appeared to slip or take a misstep around the eighth pole and could not regain momentum to catch runaway winner 3-Pianist who paid a healthy $15.40 to win the Gallorette. Our Pick-4 ticket is dead out of the gate so we'll put in a Pick-3 into the Preakness for fun or eat this giant chocolate cookie served up in McKenzie's Pub in the press box.

The next race up is the G3 Maryland Sprint Handicap to be run 6-furlongs over the dirt course. Back in a few minutes to give you my thoughts.

4:17 p.m.: Funny (or maybe not so funny) story from this morning, I ran into Paul Moran, long-time turfwriter for Newsday who now freelances for ESPN, who is also a Buffalo native who has retired to Saratoga. After exchanging pleasantries during our security search and elevator ride he told me that ESPN asked him to be available in case there was a terrorist attack at Pimlico today. Whoa. Certainly that puts things into perspective in what you have to think about when covering a sporting event.  He likes Orb, by the way.

4:30 p.m.: In the Maryland Sprint I'm going to try a four-horse exacta box and try and catch a price with two of my longer shots. We'll box 1-Action Andy (6-1), 3-Manito (10-1), 4-Hardened Wildcat (4-1) and 10-Sage Valley (5-2).

Some folks from the NYRA media office just passed out a list of Belmont Stakes likely contenders that include aside from Orb, the following: Freedom Child, Golden Soul (second in the Derby), Goldencents, Overanalyze, Palace Malice (possible), Power Broker and Revolutionary (third in the Derby).

4:50 p.m.: The good news is we hit the exacta, the bad news is the 3-Manito faded with the lead at the top of the stretch and costing us $1.20. 10-Sage Valley surged by him at the eighth pole and 4-Hardened Wildcat made a late run too little too late. The rain has stopped and the track probably needed the moisture. The track appears to be favoring stalking horses so far on the undercard.

5:05 p.m.: We're 75 minutes to post for the Preakness and the Grade 2 Dixie is up next. I like 1-Willcox Inn (6-1) and will play him across the board. I'll also throw a $2 show bet on 13-Forte de Marmei who ran third in the Canadian International last October up at Woodbine in a solid field. McGuaghey and Phipps Stable have the current second choice 4-Imaging with Javier Castellano up.

5:20 p.m.: There are a number of storylines that could result out of today's Preakness. Rosie Napravnik could become the first female rider to win the Preakness aboard Mylute. Kevin Krigger with a win on Goldencents would be the first for an African-American in 115 years (1898). D. Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert are both looking for their sixth Preakness win with Baffert trying to complete the first Black-eyed Susan-Preakness double in over a decade. Gary Stevens is looking for his third Preakness win and his first since 2001.

5:25 p.m.: The anticipation is starting to build for the big race. I'm planning on walking over with the horses from the stakes barn and over to the saddling area over on the inside of the track, so I'll be back with you after the big race with some final thoughts. I'm sticking with the picks in the paper and back-wheeling an exacta with Orb in second to protect against the upset.  Good luck everyone.

1-Willcox Inn finishes second in the Dixie, which was won by 10-Skyring ($50.40) trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

6:40 p.m.: It's 6-Oxbow ($32.80) in an upset in the Preakness and the Triple Crown drought continues. Stevens wins his third Preakness and puts a cherry on top of his comeback after a 7-year retirement, riding a brilliant race stealing it on the front end. Orb, the Triple Crown hopeful finished fourth. D. Wayne Lukas finished the day with the double that paid $279 for a $1 Off to work on my post-race commentary, I hope you enjoyed following along today. Back for the Belmont! 

-- Gene Kershner

By Gene Kershner

BALTIMORE, Md. -- Fiftyshadesofhay ($6.60) won the 89th running of the Grade 2 $500,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes for trainer Bob Baffert edging out Marathon Lady by a neck. The Pulpit filly put blinkers back on for the first time since her first three maiden races to win the feature race on the Preakness eve undercard.

Trainer Bob Baffert won his third Black-Eyed Susan, winning the race in 2004 (Yearly Report) and 1999 (Silverbulletday). The win sets the stage for a big weekend for Baffert as he will try to win his sixth Preakness tomorrow with Govenor Charlie, whose second dam just so happens to be Silverbulletday. To win tomorrow though he'll have to defeat the jockey who won the Susan for him today.

Red hot jockey Joel Rosario gave Baffert some cause for concern when he wasn't up near the lead during the early stages of the race. "I wasn't sure turning for home because I told Rosario that she usually runs 1-2-3, but ride her the way you feel you should ride her. Rosario sort of did his own thing today, but it was the right thing," said the white-haired conditioner.

Rosario sat chilly and had her make the late run right around the three-eighths pole. "She kind of got away from me a little bit at that point, I was kind of worried about it, but she was able to get it back together and kept going," said Rosario who will ride Orb tomorrow in the Preakness. "When I passed the sixteenth-pole I could see that the horse in front of me was backing up a little."

Emollient, the 4-5 favorite, stumbled out of the gate and never threatened under jockey Mike Smith. "She stumbled out of the gate real bad, and she caught her leg. It was pretty much over for us after that," said the Hall of Fame jockey.

Third-place finisher Toasting ($5.40 to show) ran a solid race for West Point Thoroughbreds. Terry Finley, managing partner was pleased with her efforts. "She closed strong and Javier [Castellano] was very pleased with the way she responded down the stretch," said Finley. He will likely point her towards Saratoga next as she progresses in her 3-year-old campaign.

Fiftyshadesofgray finished the 1 1/8-miles in 1:52.73 and the $2 exacta with Marathon Lady paid $54.00. The $2 trifecta paid $333.40.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.

By Gene Kershner

BALTIMORE, Md. – We’ve arrived and are ready to kickoff a great weekend at Old Hilltop which will culminate in the Preakness Stakes late Saturday afternoon. On tap Friday afternoon at Pimlico Race Course is the 1 1/8-mile $300,000 Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. Friday’s card will include the G3 Pimlico Special and five other non-graded stakes races.  

The final and thirteenth race of the day is the Old Hilltop Stakes where Bona Ventures' Stables Summer of Fun (4-1) will take on 10 other fillies in the 1 1/16-mile turf race. Paco Lopez will be in the irons for trainer George Weaver. Graham Motion-trained Kitten's Point (5-2) looks to be Summer of Fun's main rival. She comes out of the G1 Ashland Stakes where she was trounced by 10 lengths by Emollient, who will run in the Black-Eyed Susan.  

The 89th running of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes features nine fillies trying to step up within the  3-year-old filly division, which saw Princess of Sylmar strike first blood in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago.  

This year’s race will be televised nationally on NBC Sports Network (4 p.m.) in a one-hour telecast as part of NBC’s weekend coverage of the Preakness Stakes.

Let’s take a look at the field for the Black-Eyed Susan (trainer, jockey, odds in parenthesis):  

1 – Makuna Honey (Terranova II, Prado, 10-1) – Borrego filly took six races to break her maiden, but has not missed the exacta in her last three races. She finished a well-beaten second in the G2 Fantasy to Rose to Gold at Oaklawn Park her last out. Not convinced she's fast enough for this field.  [UPDATE: Per trainer John Terranova, she came out of her work flat on Monday and she will SCRATCH]

2 – Lady Banks (Lawrence II, Pimentel, 30-1) – The daughter of Successful Appeal has struggled since winning the 6-furlong Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct in January. Toss. 

3 – Fiftyshadesofhay (Baffert, Rosario, 2-1) – Baffert puts the shades on her for the first time. She's flattered by Beholder's good performance in Kentucky Oaks (finished second). Baffert held her out of the Oaks when she didn't ship well. The Pulpit filly posted a nice work on May 10 at Churchill. Dangerous. 

4 – Petit Trianon (Vazquez, Carrasco, 20-1) – Local talent has won three in a row. Receives six pound weight break from top horses, but this is an awfully big step up in class. Pass.  

5 – Walkwithapurpose (Correas, Lezcano, 5-1) – SCRATCHED on Thursday afternoon when she took a bad step and bruised her foot making her unable to compete.  

6 – Maracuya (Nicks, Velazquez, 8-1) - The unbeaten Big Brown filly is lightly raced and also takes a major step up in class. Has the pedigree to handle the 9-furlongs and should be pressing the leaders. Comes in off a long layoff and might need a race before improving. Exotics play underneath.

7 - Emollient (Mott, Smith, 9-5) – Morning line favorite rebounded from the Dreaming of Julia freak show at Gulfstream to win a Grade 1 on the polytrack at Keeneland. She also finished second to the Oaks third place finisher in the Grade 2 Demoisselle at the Big A. Could benefit from a hot pace up front as she likes to stalk and pounce. Keeps jockey Mike Smith aboard for the second straight race.  Workout pattern for Bill Mott says she's sitting on a big one. On paper she's the one to beat.  

8 – Toasting (Albertrani, Castellano, 20-1) – West Point Thoroughbreds filly that puts the shades on for the first time and has Castellano riding. Rosario jumps off to ride the Baffert horse. Surface change should help but not seeing it unless track comes up sloppy.  

9 – Marathon Lady (Hobby, Albarado, 12-1) – Raced well on the polytrack at Turfway Park two back finishing second to Silsita, who finished last. She finished behind the rail horse in the Fantasy last out. Looks likes she would thrive at a mile and could be distance challenged at 9 furlongs. 

Post Time Outlook – 1 –Fiftyshadesofhay; 2 –Emollient; 3 - Maracuya

Good luck and let’s cash some tickets.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

By Gene Kershner

The post position draw for the 138th running of the Preakness was held this afternoon at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, which included nine entries into Saturday's second jewel of the Triple Crown. The race will be televised nationally on NBC (Ch. 2) on Saturday afternoon during a two-hour telecast starting at 4:30 p.m. Pre- and post-race programming will be on NBC Sports Network.  

- Kentucky Derby winner Orb drew the rail, which has only one victory in the past 51 years (Tabasco Cat, 1994). He was instilled as the even money morning line favorite at the draw.

- Mylute (5-1) was declared the second choice on the morning line with jockey Rosie Napravnik aboard, the third female to ride in the Preakness.

- Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, seeking a sixth Preakness title has one third of the field and drew the No. 6 post for Oxbow,  the No. 7 post for Will Take Charge and the No. 3 for the newcomer and long shot, Titletown Five.

- Goldencents drew the 2 hole and looks to rebound from his 17th place finish in the Derby for trainer Doug O'Neill.  

- Bob Baffert, absent from his first Derby since 2008, will run Govenor Charlie in the Preakness. Baffert has won the race five times since 1997. 

- The Illinois Derby winner Departing drew post No.4 for trainer Al Stall and comes into the race winning four of his last five races.

- The post that has the most winners since 1909 is post position No. 6, which has 15 Preakness winners. Elder statesman Gary Stevens will try and make that 16 with Oxbow on Saturday.

- The Preakness is limited to 14 starters and in 14 of the last 19 years had double-digit fields. Defections earlier this week by Vyjack and Normandy Invasion reduced the field to nine, the smallest since 2007. There will be six starters returning from the Kentucky Derby to run back in the Preakness. 

Here's a look at the posts, morning line odds as set by Frank Carulli for the field:

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.

By Gene Kershner 

The first leg is in the books. A horse named Orb will take aim at the elusive Triple Crown. Now that I mention it, is there any other term that gets the term elusive attached to it more than the Triple Crown? It's been 35 years, the longest drought in history and to keep the excitement building, the horse that dominated the late stages of Saturday's Kentucky Derby will have to beat fresh horses and familiar horses alike next weekend in Baltimore.  

 Several runners from last weekend's Derby are willing to take another shot, hoping for a dry track this time at Old Hilltop.  Likely horses that will try and avenge Orb's victory include Goldencents, Vyjack, Will Take Charge, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute and potentially Normandy Invasion. Chad Brown will make a decision on Normandy after training this weekend.  

Horses hoping to join the Triple Crown trail for the first time include Govenor Charlie, Street Spice, Titletown Five and Illinois Derby champion, Departing. The second and third place finishers in the derby, Golden Soul and Revolutionary are pointing at the Belmont Stakes.  

Parting Derby Thoughts

- According to Trakus, Orb ran 6,721 feet which was longer than all but two horses in the Derby (Frac Daddy ran 12 more feet; Vyjack ran 18 more feet). That's an even bigger testament to Orb's race. He ran the final quarter in 25.88 and final half in 51.02, much the best of all of the runners.

- When I encountered Robbie Albarado and Dallas Stewart on the track after the race, they were exuberant about Golden Soul's tremendous finish, maybe too much so. Albarado was shouting that he was ready for Round two in the Preakness, reminding all that could hear that he had won it before(Curlin, 2007).  It appears cooler heads have prevailed and the Perfect Soul colt will point instead at the Belmont, where his pedigree certainly seems to fit better.

- Todd Pletcher after having five horses in the Derby will not be sending any to the Preakness, but will instead regroup his troops and look to make amends in the Belmont Stakes. Revolutionary ran a
very good race, but was taken too far back and ran out of real estate. Not that anyone was going to beat Orb on the First Saturday in May, but a second place finish was not out of the question, running his final quarter in 26.09, second fastest behind Orb.

- With all the hype about Rosie Napravnik and history, she's just a good race rider. She had Mylute in great position and finished strong in fifth place taking a similar route down the center of the track as Orb. I think he could be a threat at Pimlico.

- From a betting perspective,  it was a great wagering race as six horses were less than 10-1 at post time, but none lower than 5-1 (Orb - 5.4). The $2 exacta with Golden Soul came up just short of a grand and a nice $1 exacta key box with Orb for $38 would have netted close to $500.

- If you missed it earlier this week, Buffalo ranked sixth nationally in Derby ratings and share according to Nielsen figures released earlier in the week.

- There's a lot of noise on the internet about Will Take Charge's trip and that he was running stride for stride with Orb before checking sharply at the 3/16th pole when he ran into a tiring Verrazano. I'm not sure he improves much more than a spot or two in the final finish, but he'll take a lot of money at the windows in Baltimore because of it.

Preakness Weekend Tidbits

- Bona Venture Stables' Summer of Fun, third place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf is slated to run on the Black-Eyed Susan undercard. We'll check in with managing partner Dan Collins in next week's column.

- Looks like D. Wayne Lukas will have three entries in the Preakness after saying earlier in the week that Titletown Five will enter. Hello, fast pace!

- The Pimlico Special will once again be part of the Black-Eyed Susan Day card, spicing up the Friday card with a handicap race for older horses.

- The Orioles have a 4:05 p.m. game scheduled versus the Rays on Preakness day, which unfortunately will coincide with the heart of the stakes races next Saturday.

TBN Preakness Coverage

I'll be on site at Pimlico starting on Friday morning and will provide the following coverage next week: 

- Wednesday: Post Position Draw (Sports, Ink)

- Thursday: Preview of Black-Eyed Susan and Pimlico Special Thoughts (Sports, Ink)

- Friday: Post-race coverage of the Black-Eyed Susan (Sports, Ink)

- Saturday: Preakness Advance (Print, online)

- Saturday: Live blog from Pimlico (Sports, Ink)

- Sunday: Preakness Recap (Print, online)

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and  Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

By Gene Kershner

Buffalo loves its horse racing, especially the Kentucky Derby.

In the overall market rankings released by the NBC Sports Communications department, the Buffalo market ranked sixth overall with a 15.9 rating and 33 share. These are improvements over last years' numbers where Buffalo finished tied for fourth with three other cities with a 13.4 rating and a 27 share, showing increases of 18.7 percent and 22.2 percent, respectively.

Overall according to the Daily Racing Form, NBC's overall ratings on the Derby was up 15 percent from 20 up to 23 for this year's Run for the Roses. Overall share also increased from 9.0 to 10.5, a 16.7 percent increase over 2012. Attendance for the event was down 8.3 percent due mainly to the heavy rain that engulfed the Louisville area on Saturday.

Trailing markets with deep horse racing roots like host city Louisville and nearby Cincinnati and Knoxville shows the demand that horse racing has locally. The only markets ahead of us outside of regions near Louisville are located in Florida. Both the Ft. Myers-Naples (second) and West Palm Beach (fifth) markets with plenty of Buffalo transplants were higher than the B-lo.

Some markets that we finished ahead of include Baltimore (15), which hosts the next jewel of the Triple Crown, Washington (18), New York (22), Philadelphia (27) and Chicago (30), all areas with race tracks and large populations.

In the past our Top 10 ranking has held up during the Preakness, where we finished fifth last year. We'll see if our fair city can continue to hold up against the larger markets.

Here's a look at the top 10 markets:

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Good afternoon from historic Churchill Downs and Happy Derby Day! Through the first five races the main track was listed as fast and the turf course firm, but the track superintendent downgraded the track to sloppy before the sixth race. The turf course is currently listed as good. It's been raining for a solid two hours and if it continues the Derby looks like it we're going to get muddy.  

So it's time to bone up on your wet track handicapping. In addition, the inside of the track seems to be the place to be through the first five races and speed has been holding. The track was rolled last night and those who have gone to the front have had good fortune so far in the card.  

We had a big upset in yesterday’s Kentucky Oaks, as Princess of Sylmar patiently stayed off the pace and closed strongly to win for trainer Todd Pletcher. There were over 113,800 patrons on hand on Friday to see jockey Mike Smith win his first Kentucky Oaks. The crowd was the second largest in Oaks history.  

My top three picks in today's paper all have decent wet track form and I love that Revolutionary has an inside post. Most likely Oxbow will gun it early and that should open up a nice slot for Revolutionary to settle into along the rail.  

There are some interesting factoids on the jockeys in the big race. The three jockeys with the most Derby mounts that have never won include Robby Albarado (12-0-0-2, Golden Soul), Garrett Gomez (9-0-1-0, Vyjack) and Rafael Bejarano (8-0-0-0, Overanalyze). Will one of them get the monkey off their back this afternoon?  

The most successful jockeys in the race are Gary Stevens (18-3-2-1, Oxbow)and Calvin Borel (10-3-0-1, Revolutionary), the only two with more than one victory riding this afternoon. There are 14 jockeys in the race that never won the Derby and six (Saez, Lebron, Krigger, Trujillo, Moore and Espinoza) that are riding in their first Run for the Roses.

We'll carry you along the graded stakes races leading up to the Derby, so stick around, check back and I'll keep you updated on what's going on at Churchill Downs.

2:05 p.m.: Race 7 is the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, a 7-furlong sprint in the mud. I'm laying off this race and focusing on the late Pick-4 today, but that doesn't mean I don't have an opinion. 2-Rumor looked excellent in the post parade and would be my pick. Mike Smith is hot and he's won this race twice, albeit in 1994 and 1996. Let's try and key her in an exacta box with 1-Jamaican Smoke and 6-Aubby K.

2:20 p.m.: Aubby K ($9.20) was the right answer winning the Humana Distaff, 7-Burban took the photo over 1-Jamaican Smoke for place. Rumor was held back by Mike Smith and a late run could only muster fifth, approximately 2-1/2 lengths behind. On a good note, lunch was delicious. A nice carved roast turkey and a half chicken hit the spot and have us ready for the late Pick-4. I'd go outside to get a mint julep, but some poor planning left my nice black Woodbine windbreaker with a hood back in Buffalo.

Next up is the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up. 8-Marketing Mix has scratched out of the race and that leaves 5-Hungry Island the likely favorite. She's run very well on both good turf and yielding surfaces. I'll also include 10-Stopshoppingmaria, a Repole Stable horse I've followed since her 2-year-old season. She's a speedster and has a trainer who's had a hot hand so far this weekend, name is Pletcher or something like that.

2:28 p.m.: Update on track conditions, the Matt Winn Turf Course was just downgraded from good to yielding. Let's hope they can keep the remaining turf races (including the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic) on the weeds. One likely occurrence will be the scratch of Point of Entry. Trainer "Shug" McGaughey hinted earlier this week he might scratch under the current scenario.

2:35 p.m.: My colleague, Tim Wilkin, who covers horse racing at the Albany Times-Union just tweeted that we've had a quarter-inch of rain so far and more is expected up until 6 p.m. according to the National Weather Service. I should have brought a bigger boat (and that windbreaker). You can also follow me on Twitter (@EquiSpace) if you so choose.

2:50 p.m.: A longer priced horse you may want to consider as just tweeted by the excellent racing history writer Kevin Martin of the Colin's Ghost website, is 2-Channel Lady, whose sire English Channel was pretty successful on wet turf (17%).

3:20 p.m.: 6-Stephanie's Kitten ($9.80) who won the Edgewood last year on Oaks Day continues her Churchill love winning the Turf Mile by a neck over 5-Hungry Island. The late Pick-4 is underway and she's a decent price to start it off.

Here's a look at my work station at Churchill, where I also have the NBC app going on my iPad to watch the national telecast of the Derby (the Caps-Rangers game is scoreless after two by the way).

Next up at rainy Churchill Downs is the...wait for it....Grade 2 Churchill Downs. A little self promotion, don't you think? A 7-furlong sprint on the slop with 9 horses entered. Johnny V is aboard 2-Hierro for Pletcher and 5-Unbridled's Note fancy my top picks and I'll throw 4-Handsome Mike and 8-Trinniberg into a $0.50 Pick-3 play into the Derby.

3:25 p.m.: As I speculated earlier, Shug scratched 9-Point of Entry in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, opening up things for 8-Wise Dan.

3:35 p.m.: Hearing a lot of grumbling amongst horseplayers, that Shug waited until after the Pick-4 started. His backers will end up with the post time favorite, wonder who that will be? Uh-oh, the Rangers-Caps game is in OT, meaning Derby coverage might get bumped when it's scheduled to come on NBC at 4 p.m. Oh well, you'll miss a fluff piece or two...

3:40 p.m.: Check that the Caps just scored. Nice shot...now on to the Derby telecast. Guess you're stuck with the fluff pieces now.

4:00 p.m.: Nice win by Delauney ($5.80) at 9-5 in the Churchill Downs with Rosie Napravnik aboard, a horse for the course, he is undefeated in four races under the Twin Spires and won his sixth straight. Sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield, today I'm the bug. 6-Pass the Dice and 3-Laurie's Rocket will complete a nice trifecta paying $402 for a $2 wager.

The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic is up next at 1 1/8-miles and most will land on last year's Horse of the Year 8-Wise Dan. If you're looking for a longshot, 3-Optimizer another English Channel with the wet turf angle is an option and 4-Silver Max won last year's Virginia Derby on yielding turf.

4:02 p.m.: NEWSFLASH - It's still raining hard.

4:10 p.m.: Some advance wagering odds on the Derby: 5-Revolutionary (5-1) is the top choice and 8-Goldencents and 16-Orb are the next choices at 7-1. Next on the tote board is 5-Normandy Invasion (8-1), 12-Itsmyluckyday (9-1) and 14-Verrazano (9-1). So six horses under 10-1 at the moment, reminding me of the 2006 Derby that Barbaro won and Sweetnorthernsaint went off as the 5-1 favorite.

4:20 p.m.: Time to venture out and buy a ball cap to watch the Derby. Be back in a few to report on how wet I am. Note to self: Don't leave you're Saratoga cap in the car when rain is in the forecast.

4:35 p.m.: Back from my lid seeking mission and it has eased up a little bit. It appears that most haven't eased up on their spirits intake as I ran into a few "happy" patrons on my way to the concession stand. I also must look like an usher as I was asked directions several times, "No ma'am I don't know where you can find the gentleman in the yellow suit."

4:45 p.m.: Here's a look at my new lid -- have to stay dry for the Derby. Good to hear Pletcher saying he thinks 3-Revolutionary moves up with the wet track. Don't discount 14-Verrazano though, could he go gate-to-wire? It hasn't been done since 2002 when War Emblem took them around for a ride.

4:55 p.m.: It's the 2012 Horse of the Year, 8-Wise Dan at 3-5!  My upset choice 3-Optimizer was second and 1-Middie in third. I hit the trifecta (woot) using the all button in the third hole and Middie just caught 4-Silver Max.  That's a good thing because he's at 26-1 and Silver Max was at 8-1. Better than a sharp stick in the eye. The $2 trifecta paid $139.60, thanks Middie!

5:15 p.m.: It's time for the big one and now we wait. The long delay for the Derby (post time - 6:34 p.m.) is due to the long wagering lines on-track. I'd suggest you make your wagers early if you are using an advance deposit wagering account. I've heard reports of crashes on some of those sites.

5:20 p.m.: My plan is to head over to the winner's circle around 40 minutes to post (MTP) to secure a spot on the rail. We're about a little over an hour to post. Last year I did the walkover with the horses but that's not happening this year.

I'm going to stay with my paper picks and I'll have a couple backup tickets with 6-Mylute and 10-Palace Malice on top of my top three in some exactas.

5:30 p.m.: Some fun stories of how some of the horses got their names:

Goldencents: Named after a website that sells rare coins of some his owners (Pitino's has a piece of this horse).

Frac Daddy: His owners from Montana are involved with fracking, which we all know what that is in Western New York.

Oxbow: Named after oxbow lake, something that is created when the main stem of a river is cut off to create a lake.

Giant Finish: Named after his parents, Frost Giant (sire) and Apocalyptic (dam).

5:40 p.m.: Time to start heading to the track. I hope you enjoyed the live blog and stopped by once or twice. Good luck to all in the Derby, let's go cash some tickets! Back after the race for a quick wrap up.

7:04 p.m.: 16-Orb ($12.80), my second selection, wins the Derby for Stuart Janney III and Phipps Racing Stable. It's the first Derby victory for Joel Rosario in his fourth Derby ride. My top pick, 3-Revolutionary ($5.40 to show) finished third after Calvin Borel took him way back to start the race. They were split by 34-1 long shot 4-Golden Soul who busted up a lot of exotic tickets (including yours truly). We may have a Triple Crown threat on our hands...it's on to the Preakness.  Thanks for staying around and check tomorrow's paper for my commentary on the race.

--Gene Kershner

By Gene Kershner

LOUISVILLE, Ky -- The 139th Run for the Lilies was expected to result in another addition to the Todd Pletcher trophy case. He added that trophy, but it was due to a late closing effort by 38-1 long shot Princess of Sylmar, instead of his morning line favorite Dreaming of Julia in winning the $1 million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks for the third time in his career before 113,820 at Churchill Downs.

Bumped badly at the start, Dreaming of Julia could not make up the ground loss after getting "creamed" coming out of the gate and finished fourth. Princess of Sylmar, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith sat behind the hot pace set by speedster Midnight Lucky and 2-year-old filly champion Beholder and pounced in the final 500 yards for the 1/2-length victory.

The win paid $79.60 to win for a $2 wager, $29.40 to place and $14.00 to show. Beholder held on for second and paid $9.00 to place and $5.60 to show. Pletcher had three of the top four finishers with Unlimited Budget finishing third paying $3.80 to show. The $2 exacta paid $727 and the $2 trifecta paid $3,470.80.

The winning filly is a Pennsylvania-bred by Majestic Warrior out of Storm Dixie. The dam was originally scheduled to be bred to Grand Slam, but an injury caused breeder Ed Stanco to call an audible and breed her to Majestic Warrior, a horse whose most significant win was the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in 2007.

"We talked a lot about passing this and going to the Black-Eyed Susan, but after Ed and I talked a couple of times, we said let's bring her to Churchill and see how she handles the track and she'll tell us if she wants to run or not," said Pletcher. After a poor initial workout on the inside of the track, they breezed her from the outside and saw great improvement and decided to run her in the Oaks. A good decision that turned out to be.

"Dreaming of Julia probably took the worst of it and it ended up comprimising her position," Pletcher said of the rough early start. "She got shuffled back further than she's used to. I thought she ran a remarkable race to continue to close as well as she did and was still gaining at the end, but ran out of ground," said Pletcher.

Smith, who rides regularly on the west coast circuit credited Pletcher with the direction he received on how to handle Princess of Sylmar. "I rode her just like Todd had told me to. To really be patient, when I thought it was time to move, to be even more patient. It was perfect instructions, because we needed every bit of it," the Hall of Fame jockey exclaimed.

She probably wanted to move even earlier than that and I just didn't want to move too soon. I felt that I needed to time it right, Churchill has an extremely long stretch and it all worked out great," said Smith. The jockey also was impressed with second place finisher, who threw jockey Garret Gomez off his mount during the post parade. "Beholder never folded at all. She really dug in and for us to out-run her was incredible," said Smith.

It was disappointing for Gomez and the 2-year-old champion Beholder who had difficulty controlling his filly before the race before the second largest crowd in Oaks history. "She lost it in the post parade. I knew that might jeopardize her performance a little bit. If she didn't pull those antics in the post parade she might have had a chance to win," said Gomez.

Pletcher told those that would listen before the race a hot pace would benefit his filly. "I think if they go fast and Mike is very good at getting horses to settle and make a run with. I said if they go fast early, this filly, it wouldn't shock me. When they threw up 22 and 4 and she was sitting where we wanted to sit, I think it all fell into place from there," said the conditioner.

Sometime a plan comes together, and for Todd Pletcher he proved once again why he's one of the best in the business. 

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.

By Gene Kershner

LOUISVILLE,Ky. -- Late this morning, the Churchill Downs media department announced the scratch of Black Onyx from the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Kelly Breen announced in a media briefing that the scratch was due to a non-displaced chip in his left ankle discovered this morning after training.  He was to break from the first gate on Saturday. The notification of the scratch was subsequent to 9 a.m. this morning, which left Fear the Kitten, the only horse on the also-eligible list on the outside looking in.  

The 9 a.m. deadline is due to the start of advance wagering on the Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs announced that the first gate will be left empty with the other horses still breaking from their assigned posts. 

Breen noticed a little swelling in the ankle of the Spiral Stakes winner prior to an early morning gallop. "He trained, he did gallop, he came back he was at a 1 out of 5 lameness and warranted us to take an X-ray where we found that he does have a chip to his left ankle," said Breen. The X-rays were obtained after the 9 a.m. deadline which was not timely enough for Fear the Kitten. "He's back in the barn, he's not feeling all that bad because he just tried to bite me," Breen joked trying to lighten the somber mood in the room.

Jockey Joe Bravo was disappointed but glad that the injury wasn't catastrophic. "I'm just very hopeful that the horse is going to be okay," said Bravo.  This was to be the third career Kentucky Derby mount for the jockey affectionately known as Jersey Joe.  

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.

By Gene Kershner

LOUISVILLE,Ky. -- With the chance of rain in the forecast for Louisville on Saturday, it's time to start thinking about those horses that can handle a muddy or sloppy track. The forecast on weather.com as of 3 p.m. Thursday shows a 70 percent chance of rain for Derby day and temperatures dropping to the low 60s from the temperatures in the mid-70s we are currently experiencing and expected for Oaks day. 

Some of the areas horseplayers should read up on include wet Tomlinson figures included in the Daily Racing Form's past performances, as well as pedigree statistics which can be found in the Brisnet past performances. A look at the field's bloodlines can also provide clues as to a colt's chances in the Derby. The most important item may be how the actual horse has performed on an off track. 

Wet Tomlinson Figures

This measure of a horse's ability on a wet track was the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who studied past performances of a sample of horses based on how they performed on wet tracks and their pedigrees. Wet Tomlinson score range from 0 to 480 (a perfect score) and experts have noted that a score of 320 warrants consideration of a horse that should perform well on an off-track.  Based on my current Derby spreadsheet, the following horses have the top wet Tomlinson figures in the Derby:  

Three of the top five horses according to the morning line have wet Tomlinson figures that would suggest they will run well on an off track. Three of Todd Pletcher's five entries find themselves in this same top 10.

Pedigree

Some of the bloodlines that are part of the current field can be traced back to horses that have solid wet track influences can be traced to sires such as Mr. Prospector, In Reality and A.P. Indy. 

The horses that are part of said bloodlines include Palace Malice, Revolutionary, Mylute and Orb. You may remember Mylute's sire Midnight Lute won a Breeders' Cup Sprint championship in the slop at Monmouth Park in 2007. Palace Malice's sire, Curlin, won the Breeders' Cup Classic at a mile and a quarter that same year in the slop by open lengths. 

Brisnet Sire and Dam sire Win Percentages

The horses that have the highest sire win percentages on a wet track (noted as" mud stats") as listed in Brisnet past performances in the Derby include (with more than 100 starts): Normandy Invasion (18%), Overanalyze (17%), Falling Sky (17%), Orb (17%), and Will Take Charge (17%). The horses on the dam sire side with the highest percentages based on the same criteria include: Black Onyx (20%), Oxbow (20%), Revolutionary (19%), Golden Soul (19%), Lines of Battle (19%), and Orb (19%). The morning line favorite, Orb (7-2) is the only horse to show on the top of both of these lists.  

Actual Off-Track Performances

Of the horses in the field, four horses have wins on an off-track: Revolutionary, Vyjack, Itsmyluckyday and Falling Sky. Two horses have placed on off-tracks, Palace Malice and Frac Daddy. None of the aforementioned winners accomplished the feat in a stakes race or at a distance greater than a mile. 

Should the track come up sloppy or muddy on Saturday afternoon under the Twin Spires, these should offer some clues to consider when handicapping the big race.  

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.