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Post Time: Hype surrounds Verrazano at Tampa

By Gene Kershner

We're 56 days from the Run for the Roses and this weekend on the Derby trail comes to you from Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita Park. Two Kentucky Derby Championship Series races are on the calendar and will provide the top four finishers the opportunity to claim valuable Derby points on the Road to Louisville.

The Tampa Bay Derby, a race that provided us with the 2007 Derby champion Street Sense, will be the first of the two Derby prep races to be held on Saturday afternoon. Santa Anita will host the San Felipe Stakes and a field of eight colts later that afternoon on the west coast.  

In Tampa, nine colts have entered the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby with a total purse of $350,000 to be run over 1 1/16-miles. One horse that has been generating a tremendous amount of hype is 6-Verrazano, a colt that will be making his third career start, winning his first two races by a combined 24 lengths.  He'll try two turns for the first time over the quirky Tampa dirt surface, which has been known to trip up more than one Derby contender (see War Pass, circa 2008).  

The More Than Ready colt has been working tremendously and will likely be a very short price on the tote board when they leave the gate in Florida on Saturday afternoon. 

Two challengers that I have my eye on that could challenge the heavy favorite are 3-Honorable Dillon, winner of the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream who will stretch out for the first time for trainer Eddie Kenneally and 5-Dynamic Sky.  The Mark Casse-trained Dynamic Sky is an Ontario-bred who has a couple trips over the Tampa surface, the second going two turns in the Sam F. Davis where he finished second behind 9-Falling Sky, who will be in the outside post on Saturday.  

Those four appear to be the top contestants to claim Derby points. If you're looking for a long shot possibility, red-hot trainer Jane Cibelli (30 percent winner at the Tampa meet) will send out the Lion Heart colt 2-Purple Egg, who comes off a bullet work and a win in a non-graded stake in Tampa
during December.  

On the left coast, the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes will pit two of California's top runners against each other going the same 1 1/16-mile distance. Top trainer Bob Baffert sends out Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis winner 2-Flashback, who has posted back to back bullet workouts over the past two weeks, earning him 10 Derby points in the making. Baffert will be looking for a record setting fifth San Felipe win to break a tie with Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham, and sends out 1-Carving in addition to Flashback.

He'll be vying against 3-Goldencents, winner of two Grade 3 Prep Season point races, the Delta Jackpot and the Sham Stakes. He currently sits in fifth place in the Derby standings with 24 points. Trainer Doug O'Neill looks to win back to back victories in America's biggest race on the First
Saturday in May.  

Jerry Hollendorfer enters the Ghostzapper gelding 5-Hear the Ghost who will be routing for the first time going two turns at the Great Race Place. Hollendorfer has been on fire at Santa Anita as of late, and should hit the board with this one behind the two top contenders.

The San Felipe last produced a Derby winner in 2000 when Fusaichi Pegasus won the race. The 2009 Derby runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, also won the San Felipe during that year's Road to the Derby.

The current leaders through last weekend's results, highlighted by Vyjack's big win in the Gotham, shows a logjam at 10 points between 11 different horses. The tie-breaker to gain a gate in the Derby will be non-restricted graded earnings.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: Derby trail heads to Gotham

By Gene Kershner

The Kentucky Derby Championship Series looks toward the Big Apple this weekend and the $400,000 Grade 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack on Saturday afternoon. The third of eight races in the First Leg of the Championship Series races will provide an opportunity to significantly move up on the leaderboard. The top four finishers will be awarded points on a 50-20-10-5 basis. 

The race has drawn 12 colts seeking to gain a spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 4 at Churchill Downs. Last weekend saw Orb (Fountain of Youth) and long shot Ive Struck a Nerve (Risen Star) move to the top of the Derby points standings with 50 and 51 points, respectively. 

The top challengers in the Gotham include Grade 2 winners Overanalyze (Remsen) and Vyjack (Jerome) and the runnerup in the Grade 3 Withers, Escapefromreality, who finished a neck behind Revolutionary. Hall of Famer John Velazquez heads north from Gulfstream Park to grab the mount of Overanalyze, owned by Repole Stable. You may remember that Repole saddled Grade 1 stakes winners Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty on the 2010 Derby trail. 

Let's take a look at the field (trainer, jockey, morning line odds and post position [pp] in parenthesis) for the Gotham to be raced at 1 1/16 miles on the winterized inner track: 

1 - Transparent (McLaughlin, Ortiz Jr., 8-1, pp5) The Bernardini colt broke his maiden late last month on the inner winning impressively by over five lengths. He finished eight lengths behind Revolutionary two races back. He's part of a coupled entry and looking elsewhere. 

1A - Now and Then (McLaughlin, Alvarado, 8-1, pp6) Second half of entry, who won his debut race on the inner last month. Seems to be training well and is by Tiznow, so he certainly should enjoy the stretch out in his first route race. Promising colt who could be an upset threat. 

2 - Champion Boy (Guerrero, Castro, 30-1, pp1) Big Brown progeny who draws the rail as a long shot hopeful. He has an intriguing pedigree with turf sire El Prado (IRE)on his dam's side.  Colt finished fifth in the Withers and third behind the 1A in his maiden voyage. 

3 - Escapefromreality (Schettino, Cohen, 6-1, pp2) The Read the Footnotes gelding sports some solid works coming off his valiant effort in the Withers. Has some stamina on his dam side as Medaglia d'Oro is his dam's sire. Has the top speed figure at the distance and looks to move forward in his second route race. Dangerous. 

4 - Ore Pass (Trombetta, Pimentel, 12-1, pp3) He's by freshman sire War Pass, and comes off a non-graded stakes win at Laurel Park. Has yet to duplicate the big fig he tossed out in his maiden win last November. This one seems to be a big step up in class. Pass (no pun intended).

5 - Amerigo Vespucci (Tullock Jr., Rodriguez, 20-1, pp4) Has finished behind the top contenders in here in his last two graded stakes at the Big A and has one point in the Derby standings earned via his fourth place finish in the Withers. Would only look to use underneath in the tri or super as others seem more logical.

6 - Siete de Oros (Preciado, Arroyo, 15-1, pp7) He was only two lengths behind the winner of the Withers after yielding the lead in the stretch. He's only missed the board once in six career efforts, that being his debut at Parx. The A.P. Warrior colt was a $2,000 purchase and already has over $138K in lifetime earnings.  His late leakage in the Withers indicates he may be more of a miler, but his trainer does well with routers, so I'm on the fence. 

7 - Vyjack (Rodriguez, Rosario, 3-1, pp8) Rudy's been killing 'em during the inner meet, winning at a 30 percent clip and this is the star of his barn. He recruits top jockey Joel Rosario to leave Gulfstream for the weekend. His sire Into Mischief performed well on the Derby trail before suffering an injury that kept him out of the Derby. It will be hard to bet against the red-hot Rodriguez. Win threat.  

8 - Elnaawi (McLaughlin, Hill, 8-1, pp9) Street Sense colt makes his third career start after breaking his maiden in a win over a muddy Big A track in early January. He's a half brother of To Honor and Serve. McLaughlin administers lasix for the first time. Looking for big things from this one.  

9 - Sky Captain (Casse, Mena, 8-1, pp10) Ships up from Gulfstream to take a shot at a Derby gate. Lost last out to Cerro who didn't fare well in the Fountain of Youth last weekend, where he faded to sixth.  Connections have to be respected and he comes in third off the layoff on the form cycle.  

10 - West Hills Giant (Terranova, Espinoza, 20-1, pp11) New York-bred steps up in class to take on a much tougher crew than he's raced. Has been working well and comes in off the layoff, and trainer Terranova adds blinkers to shake things up. This appears to be a big stretch. 

11 - Overanalyze (Pletcher, Velazquez, 5-2, pp12) The favorite drew the outside post, the same one that Hansen was in to win last year's edition. Was rested by Pletcher and emerges to capture valuable Derby points. Hard to discount the Pletcher/Velazquez factor, meaning he may go off around even money on the tote board. Lot of Pletcher hype on the trail, this one will be watched widely. Think he gets nipped at the wire.  

Post Time Outlook: 1 - Escapefromreality; 2 - Overanalyze; 3 - Vyjack; 4 -Elnaawi  

Good luck!  

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: From Television to the Track

By Gene Kershner

The Kentucky Derby Championship Series heats up this weekend with the most valuable races to date as we move into the first leg of the new points system after the conclusion on Monday of the Prep Season. The next eight qualifying races will be worth 50-20-10-5 points to the top four finishers.

The Derby trail will hit Florida and Louisiana this weekend with the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. The Risen Star presents the first real opportunity to see just how Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens’ comeback is coming along. The NBC and HRTV analyst ended his seven-year retirement in January and will ride Proud Strike (8-1) for trainer Steve Asmussen on Saturday at the Fair Grounds.

Over a year ago he was starring in the HBO Series “Luck” which was canceled prematurely last March amid the death of several horses during filming.  On Tuesday afternoon in a call with the national racing media Stevens addressed some of the obstacles he’s faced on the comeback trail.

“Obstacle number one as far as the critics, you know I'm getting to turn 50 years old. I knew that I was going to be under the microscope. You're always under the microscope in this sport regardless of what you've done the day before, let alone seven years prior to. And, you know, I had thought about this through midway last summer and I had a plan that I put in place and tried to execute it and really didn't know how things were going to turn out, what the expectation was going to be and it's been overwhelming. Unexpected and I'm just honored to be back riding the type of horses for the people that I'm riding for and to get a phone call to go in and ride a colt like Proud Strike in the Risen Star is beyond my biggest dreams,” said Stevens.

Stevens is pumped about the opportunity to be back on the Derby trail and was ecstatic upon getting the call on Proud Strike. “He's been progressing with every one of his races and when I got the phone call I was pretty excited. And he looks like a colt that has just taken huge steps up with every race; and if he takes a big step off of that maiden breaker then, you know, it's good enough.”

The maiden race he references was a 11/16-mile race in January over the Fair Grounds surface where he pulled away to a 7-1/2 length victory. He will face much tougher company on Saturday afternoon in a full field of 14 colts. His biggest challengers will be Grade 2 Remsen winner Normandy Invasion (5-2), Grade 3 LeComte winner Oxbow (5-1), west coast shipper Code West (6-1) and Mylute (6-1), a son of Breeders’ Cup sprint champion Midnight Lute for trainer Tom Amoss. Code West looks the most interesting of the bunch, coming off a second place finish behind Super Ninety Nine, who decimated the Southwest field at Oaklawn on Monday afternoon. Baffert will also add blinkers to Code West. 

Should Stevens bag the 50 points with a win, he may have a tough choice to make as he is scheduled to cover the Derby as an analyst for NBC.” If I actually think I've got a legitimate chance to win the Kentucky Derby, I'm going to be out on a horseback and NBC will be riding with me. I think that we're in a position right now that that opportunity is there. I don't want to say yes or no because it's like putting the cart in front of the horse, but I'm very optimistic and I've got the support of NBC whichever decision winds up being made and the horses at the end of the day are going to make the decision for me.”

Gulfstream Park has 11 horses entered for the Fountain of Youth, and Todd Pletcher will once again, be in the role of favorite with a heavily favored Violence (9-5), a colt sired by Medaglia d’Oro and ridden by Javier Castellano. The Cash Call Futurity winner has raced just three times over three different tracks winning each race. If you’re trying to beat him, I’d look to Orb for trainer Shug McGaughey with Johnny Velazquez aboard. He’s second off the layoff and second time Lasix, so he might be ready to step up after posting a sharp workout on Feb. 18. 

It should be a great weekend of racing to kick off the first leg of the Championship Series, so buckle up as the Derby trail heats up. 

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: Weekend racing notes

By Gene Kershner

The holiday weekend serves up the last two races making up the first leg of the "Road to the Kentucky Derby Series." Golden Gate Fields and Oaklawn Park are the sites for the last two races under the 10-4-2-1 point scenario. Next weekend we move into the second leg where the points elevate to 50-20-10-5 through Mar. 24 when the final seven prep races will be worth 100-40-20-10 to the first four finishers. Most pundits are estimating 30-40 points should qualify a horse for the Kentucky Derby.

El Camino Real Derby

On Saturday, the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby will be run just outside of San Francisco, the only race at Golden Gate Fields to be a part of the new Series of qualifying races. A field of nine horses will head to the gate which will include California Derby winner Zeewat (5-2) who will attempt to give jockey Russell Baze his ninth El Camino Real winner. Bob Baffert ships in Manando, the 9-5 morning line favorite, and Aaron Gryder will ride. Manando finished third in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes behind current points co-leader Goldencents. There appears to be an abundance of speed in the race and looks like it should be a duel between the top two.  

Southwest Stakes

On President’s Day, Oaklawn Park will be the site of its second race of the Series, the Southwest Stakes.  Will Take Charge looks to build upon his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes where he picked up 10 points for the victory last month. He will likely face Super Ninety Nine, another Bafffert California shipper who will bring along Rafael Bejarano for the ride. Super Ninety Nine was one of 23 horses included in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Futures Wager (KDFW) last weekend. Baffert was on fire last year in the Oaklawn prep races winning the Smarty Jones, both divisions of the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby. Other potential challengers include Always In a Tiz, third place finisher in the Smarty Jones behind Texas Bling, another horse likely to enter. Brown Almighty, who has success on the turf, will try one more time for trainer Tim Ice to see if he can follow in the footsteps of his daddy, the 2008 Derby-Preakness winner Big Brown.  

Other Notes

- The 2009 Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, was still in serious condition yesterday after surgery on Wednesday for complications incurred after foaling a Bernardini filly early Tuesday morning at Stonestreet Farm. It was discovered during surgery at nearby Rood and Riddle that she had damaged an area in the small colon during the foaling process. She is currently on intravenous antibiotics and fluids in her attempts to recover. The filly, that weighed 140 pounds at birth, is in good health and is under the care of a nurse mare at Stonestreet. 

- Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) announced 109 layoffs of salaried personnel on Wednesday afternoon, including three in its top notch media office. Reduced revenue from agreements with the Ontario government and the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation were the impetus for the restructuring at Woodbine.

- Last weekend’s KDFW Pool 1 closed with the “All Others” choice as the overwhelming favorite at 8-5. Seven horses finished between 11-1 and 16-1, including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby who ended up at 13-1. The pool produced the second highest handle in its 15-year history with over $621,000 wagered over the three-day period last weekend. Two more future pools are scheduled before the Run for the Roses on May 5.

The current top ten in the Road to the Kentucky Derby Series include the following:

Rank

Horse

Points

1

Shanghai Bobby

24

2

Goldencents

24

3

Oxbow

11

4

Violence

10

5

Itsmyluckyday

10

6

Overanalyze

10

7

Uncaptured

10

8

Den’s Legacy

10

9

Power Broker

10

10

Will Take Charge

10

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: Derby futures pool open for business

By Gene Kershner 

It's that time of year when Derby lists start popping up in and around the interwebs. My annual participation on the Wireplayers.com website’s Derby Dozen panel kicked off this week. Volume I of the list featured five Pletcher horses and two Baffert horses amongst the inaugural dozen. It’s no different in the first Kentucky Derby Futures Wager (KDFW) pool released earlier this week wherein 11 of the 23 betting interest feature horses trained by these top two conditioners.

My initial list included Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary and Violence as my top three contenders for Volume I of the poll. In last year’s final poll my two top horses were Bodemeister and I’ll Have Another, so pay attention (that exacta paid $306.60 on Derby day). It’s still very early though, and the “All Others” betting interest in the first Futures poll will likely be the favorite when the betting pool closes on Sunday evening. There will be two other KDFW pools for Kentucky Derby 139, to be held Mar. 1-3 (Pool 2) and Mar. 22-24 (Pool 3). The current Wynn-Las Vegas Casino also lists its future book odds here and past performances for all of the horses can be found here.

If you’re interested in making a futures bet on the Derby in Pool 1, check out the fan-friendly site, Hello Race Fans, which has an in depth post on how much future wagers have paid out in the past and how to make the wager.

Flashback (9-1), last weekend’s Robert Lewis winner is the current future book favorite at the Wynn, with Violence (12-1) Revolutionary (15-1), Uncaptured (16-1) and Itsmyluckyday (18-1) not too far behind. I’ll Have Another won the Lewis last year before winning the Derby.

It was announced earlier in the week that nearly $99 million was bet on Super Bowl in 185 sports books in Nevada. By comparison, over $133 million was bet on the Kentucky Derby last year, where just less than 10 percent of that was bet at Churchill Downs. Of course, much more money is likely bet illegally on the Super Bowl in office and bar pools, it goes to show the magnitude of the Derby.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby series takes a break this weekend with no races scheduled. Next weekend the last two races of the “Prep Season” portion of the schedule (10-4-2-1) will be held at Golden Gate Fields (El Camino Real Derby) and Oaklawn Park (Southwest Stakes). The first leg of the “Championship Series” portion of the Series will commence on Feb. 23 where the winner will receive 50 points. The first leg points will be awarded on a 50-20-10-5 basis to the top four finishers.

Just because the Derby trail is taking a week off doesn’t mean that there will be a falloff in racing action this weekend. The Grade 1 Donn Handicap will feature older horses Ron the Greek, Flat Out and Pool Play and the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap will signify the 2013 debut of Animal Kingdom and Point of Entry. Saturday’s Gulfstream card features four straight graded stakes races, including the two noted above.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: Bona Ventures’ Smooth Bert steps up at Big A

By Gene Kershner

On Saturday afternoon, eight colts will head to the gate at Aqueduct Racetrack in search of valuable qualifying points for Kentucky Derby 139. Stepping into the outside gate will be Bona Venture Stables’ Smooth Bert (15-1), who will commence his quest for the Run for the Roses on the First Saturday in
May. 

The Grade 3 $200,000 Withers Stakes is the first race in New York on Churchill Downs’ “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series, with the winner to receive 10 points, the runner-up 4 points, the third-place finisher 2 points, and the fourth-place finisher 1 point.  The race will be run over 8-1/2 furlongs over the winterized inner track at the Big A.

Smooth Bert is coming off almost a two-month layoff after winning the $80K non-graded Damon Runyon, where he came off the pace late to make a surge to win for the stable made up mostly of alumni of St. Bonaventure University.

Managing Partner Dan Collins thinks his works suggest he could be sitting on a big race. “The longer the better for Bert.  After his last race, the Runyon, Luzzi said he was ‘playing with the field.’  He wasn’t even breathing hard. Luzzi said he easily could have gone around again.  We’ve always felt that as his experience grew and the races got longer, he would get better,” said Collins.

He’ll  be stepping up into graded company for the first time and super-trainer Todd Pletcher will unleash race favorite Revolutionary (3-5), a colt who won by over eight lengths in breaking his maiden last out.  Revolutionary has been the overwhelming favorite in all four career races but only has the win in late December. Javier Castellano will ride for the first time, replacing injured rider Ramon Dominguez.

According to the NYRA press release, Pletcher thinks Revolutionary’s bad luck troubles are behind him. “[The improved performance] was a combination of a lot of things, the stretch out the, two turns, the clean start, a good trip,” said Pletcher. “We weren’t surprised he did something impressive, and it was the first time everything had gone smoothly. He didn’t have a bad trip when
he was second at Belmont, but I thought the track that day was very speed favoring and it was hard to make up ground. A talented horse got loose and we just couldn’t run him down, and he had a horrible start in the one-turn race at Aqueduct.”

When asked what would be the perfect pace scenario for Smooth Bert against a field that includes the talented Revolutionary, Collins replied, “I would like to see a couple horses take the field through a quick half-mile.  A (half-mile) pace of 0:46 would be great for him.  Escapefromreality (6-1) is likely to be on the lead, but looking at the past performances there really isn’t another horse that might push him.  So, it could be Bert, right on his shoulder.  Amerigo Vespucci (15-1) might be near the lead as well.  Maybe a 1:10 for 6-furlongs. That will set him up nicely. What we want is a quick pace, Bert just off the lead and running as the field moves into the stretch.”

If Smooth Bert prevails on Saturday, bigger things would be in store. “We haven’t thought it through completely.   We likely will skip the Gotham.  If he wins, well then the Wood (Memorial) looms large.  If not, but he runs really well, we might look around for another shot at a qualifying race,” said  Collins.

 The Bona Venture partnership has performed well with 2-year-old fillies. In the past two years alone, two Bona Venture fillies have advanced to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf race. Summer of Fun finished third at Santa Anita last November.

We’ll see how they fare with their first serious foray on the Derby trail.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

 

The field for the Grade 3, $200,000 Withers:

     

PP

Horse

Jockey

Wgt

Trainer

Odds

1

Long River

I Ortiz, Jr.

116

McLaughlin

7-2

1A

Valid

J Alvarado

116

McLaughlin

7-2

2

Revolutionary

J Castellano

116

T A Pletcher

3-5

3

Escapefromreality

J L Ortiz

116

D A Schettino

6-1

4

Amerigo Vespucci

Rodriguez

116

Tullock, Jr.

15-1

5

Siete de Oros

M Remedio

118

R Preciado

8-1

6

Champion Boy

E Castro

116

J C Guerrero

30-1

7

Smooth Bert

M J Luzzi

118

L Gyarmati

15-1

 

Post Time: Juvenile champ starts Derby trail off in Florida

By Gene Kershner

On Saturday afternoon, the newly crowned 2-year-old champion Shanghai Bobby will begin his quest on the Derby trail in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The race is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Season schedule and is worth 10 points to the eventual winner in the new Derby points qualifying system.

The undefeated colt has entered is taking the Florida route to the Derby, one that’s been successful for such 3-year olds such as Barbaro and Big Brown in recent years and looks to extend his five race winning streak. He drew the rail (which is winning at a 20 percent clip) for the first test of his sophomore season and has been training well for Todd Pletcher. 

He’ll be part of a respectable field of 10 horses looking to accumulate valuable points in the 8-1/2 furlong race going two turns at the Hallandale Beach strip.

Let’s take a look at the field (trainer, jockey, morning line odds in parenthesis):

1 – Shanghai Bobby (Pletcher, Napravnik, 4/5). Rosie has been in the irons for all five of the Juvenile champion’s victories and is looking to become the first female jockey to win the Derby, so there will be added pressure as this colt progresses down the trail. By class alone it’s hard to dismiss him, but this is the race where last year’s Juvenile champ, Hansen, was upended and exposed. The rail has been hot so it’s unlikely that the champ will finish out of the exacta.

2 – Frac Daddy (McPeek, Cohen, 8-1). Best name in the field, but that usually doesn’t win the race. Won impressively breaking his maiden at Churchill and was headed in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club by the talented Uncaptured, so he has the talent to win this one. Both the jock and trainer have been ice cold at Gulfstream which is the only signal to wait one out. 

3- Clearly Now (Lynch, Saez, 12-1). Woodbine shipper will be trying dirt for the first time. He had a solid 4-furlong work at Palm Meadows, but the transition to dirt is enough to keep me away in this talented field.

4 – Bern Identity (Breen, Lopez, 4-1). Has the class to compete, winning the G2 Sanford at Saratoga and finishing second to Goldencents (the current leader in Derby points) in the Delta Jackpot. Connections won the 2011 Belmont with Ruler On Ice, so they are no stranger to the Triple Crown trail. Workout tab suggests he’s ready to run and Breen is a 29 percent winner after being beaten as the favorite. 

5 – Sr. Quisqueyano (Olivares, Rosario, 20-1). The Exclusive Quality colt faded in the non-graded Gulfstream Park Derby to Itsmyluckyday. He finished over six lengths behind in second in the one mile affair. Breeding indicates he’s more of a sprinting sort and I don’t favor him to challenge in
here. 

6 - Dewey Square (Romans, Lanerie, 12-1). Eclipse award winning trainer Dale Romans will try and be a figure on this year’s Triple Crown trail with this Bernardini colt that finished behind Frac Daddy in the Kentucky Jockey Club race. He has an impressive work tab and posted a bullet on Jan. 20, so he could be a dangerous foe on race day. 

7 – Itsmyluckyday (Plesa Jr., Trujillo, 6-1). Freaked on New Year’s Day with Paco Lopez aboard who will ride Bern Identity instead. Usually a signal as to who is the better horse, but the Lawyer Ron colt looks to be the real deal and could see him hitting the board.

8 – Tulira Castle (DiVito, Castellano, 30-1). The War Pass colt steps into deeper waters after winning in the allowance ranks. May be over his head in here, but like that the connections are taking a shot.

9 – Fredericksburg (Matz, Velazquez, 30-1). Finished behind the 8 horse in the last race after a bobble at the start. The connections scream potential upset play and may be worth throwing a few bucks on a possible long shot play 

10 – Joshua’s Comprise (Rose, Desormeaux, 50-1). Stranger things have happened on the Derby trail, but this one doesn’t seem likely. Probably should have been running last weekend with the other Florida-breds. 

It’s hard to go against the class of the champion, Shanghai Bobby, who has done no wrong in his five career races and if the rail is golden on Saturday he should prevail.

Post Time Outlook: 1-Shanghai Bobby; 2-Itsmyluckyday; and 3-Bern Identity

Long shot Play: Fredericksburg

Good luck this weekend and let’s go cash some tickets!

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: Sunshine Millions highlights big weekend at Gulfstream

By Gene Kershner

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Gulfstream Park is the place to be in thoroughbred racing this weekend, not only is it hosting the 42nd annual Eclipse Awards, but a hearty Sunshine Millions card is on tap on Saturday afternoon.

I’ve arrived in the Sun Belt to emcee a fan-based awards brunch on Sunday morning, which will feature trainer Nick Zito, champion handicapper Michael Beychok and former jockey and current NBC track reporter Donna Barton-Brothers. Ms. Brothers also is currently the COO of Starlight Racing, the stable most likely to receive 2-year-old colt champion honors on Saturday night for the efforts of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby.

As for the racing, the Millions card features a number of intriguing horses starting at the first race where the Todd Pletcher-trained Palace Malice (8-5) will make his first 3-year-old start in a 7-furlong optional claimer. The Curlin colt won impressively at the Spa last summer and retains the services of Eclipse finalist Javier Castellano in the saddle.

The Sunshine Millions portion of the card gets underway in the fifth race with the Filly and Mare Sprint, featuring another Pletcher favorite, R Holiday Mood (8-5), a graded stakes winner who comes off the long layoff. She’ll be challenged by two sharp fillies, Golden Mystery (9-5) and Grade 1 winner Emma’s Encore (5-1), both of whom have past success on the Gulfstream track.

Watch the early races on the card, as the Gulfstream strip can be prove to be a very fast track favoring speed horses. It’s been known to be supped up on big race days so be sure to keep an eye on whether a track bias develops.

I attended Millions day three years ago and I remember that favorites ruled the day, especially those who have fared well at Gulfstream in the past. Romacaca (9-5), the favorite in the Filly and Mare Turf is a horse that fits that bill. She’s 10-5-2-0 at Gulfstream lifetime and enters winning three of her last four, the only blemish a dismal performance in the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million day.

Hoping it isn’t all chalk on Saturday and possibly the Sunshine Millions Sprint may render an upset. Close It Out (10-1) boasts the speed and has handled Gulfstream and has won at the 6-furlong distance, hitting the board in eight of nine attempts at the distance. In a start two races back he defeated 5-2 favorite Bahamian Squall, so he has proven he can handle the class of his competition.

Wondering who trains the favorite in the Turf? Once again, it’s the omnipresent Pletcher who sends out Doubles Partner (8-5) to head up a field of eight horses going 9-furlongs over the Gulfstream turf course. I had trouble finding any horse in this race that could challenge. Slew’s Answer is coming off a long layoff, Bad Debt and Picou could rival the favorite, but just don’t appear fast enough. Teaks North has back class and Hall of Famer Johnny V aboard, but his latest efforts are less to be desired.

The feature race of the day, the Sunshine Millions Classic, is not short on star power. Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Mucho Macho Man (6-5) will be the heavy favorite over Ron The Greek (8-5) and Fort Loudon (4-1). Fort Loudon mostly ran in sprint races during his 11-race 3-year-old campaign and will stretch out for the first time since last year’s Florida Derby. Ron The Greek was the only horse to defeat likely 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan last year.

The Classic will most likely crown the handicap horse looking to build a foundation for a solid start to the 2013 season.  Attracting those top horses should provide patrons with a great finale to a decent card of racing at the Hallandale Beach track.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: Friday racing notebook

By Gene Kershner

The 2012 racing year is in the rear view mirror and the Kentucky Derby trail is about to start heating up with three more races this month with available points before we move into the Kentucky Derby Championship Series. The stakes go up when we enter the Series portion of the schedule in February where pre-determined races produce a larger amount of points up through the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April.

Next weekend is Eclipse weekend in Hallandale Beach, Florida, where Gulfstream Park will host the 42nd annual awards show. Here are some of the things that have been rattling around the squirrel cage... 

-- There’s a good chance that Wise Dan will come away with Horse of the Year (HOY), but not win a single individual category. The odd occurrence could happen with Little Mike (Older Turf Male) and Fort Larned (Older Male) could take both categories from the probable HOY.  I voted for him in the HOY and Older Male categories, but did give Little Mike the nod in the Older Turf division based on his three quality victories in the Arlington Million, Turf Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

-- The Eclipse finalists (top three) in each category were released last Saturday and can be found here at the NTRA website.

-- The next three races in the Derby points system are the Lecomte (Fair Grounds), the Smarty Bull (Oaklawn) and the Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream), all with a 10-4-2-1 scorecard for the top four spots. All are prep races for races in the Championship Series portion of the schedule at the three respective tracks.

-- The first annual ThoroFan Awards Brunch will be held the morning after the Eclipse Awards at Gulfstream with trainer Nick Zito and 2012 NHC Champion handicapper Michael Beychok will be the guest speakers. Mrs. Patrice Wolfson, owner of the last Triple Crown champion Affirmed, will accept the inaugural ThoroFan Award on behalf of her and her late husband, Louis.

-- It was reported on Wednesday morning, that the Pletcher-based Archwarrior, a colt that was mega-hyped during his 2-year-old campaign, is off the Derby trail and may return in time for the Belmont.

-- Buffalo Raceway opened on Wednesday night and will run through mid-July at the Hamburg oval. Make sure you follow their twitter account (@BuffaloRaceway) for updates and promotions.

-- On December 29, my namesake, Kershner ($9.00), a 3-year-old Trippi colt won at Tampa Bay Downs, and filling my inbox, as opposed to my wallet.

-- It looks like New York State Racing & Wagering Board Chairman John D. Sabini will step down as the state’s chief racing regulator today. He has been in that post since 2008. The pending merger with the state Lottery division into a state Gaming Commission on Feb. 1 and the fact he would only be paid on a per diem basis in the future if retained, appear to be the main reasons behind his stepping down. 

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turfxwriter, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

Post Time: 2012 Eclipse selections

By Gene Kershner

On New Year’s Eve, I submitted my first ever Eclipse ballot as a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association (NTWAB). I was elected into the NTWAB during Derby weekend last May and one of the benefits to being a part of that esteemed group is receiving voting privileges for the annual Eclipse awards.

The Eclipse voters are made up of the NTWAB, representatives from the Daily Racing Form (DRF) and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA). The NTWAB will make their voters’ selections public after the winners are announced at the 42nd annual Eclipse Awards to be held at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, January 19. The top three contenders in each category will be released on Saturday, January 5 by the NTRA.

What’s interesting is that there are no specified criteria as to how you are to vote for the champions in the 17 different categories ranging from Horse of the Year to Apprentice Jockey. I tried to be objective in each of the categories and considered a horse’s consistency, race difficulty (similar to a strength of schedule metric) and performance in key races as a guide to my selections.

Below are my selections in the main categories (there are 17 in total) and my thoughts in selecting the various horses in each category.

Horse of the Year: Wise Dan. The horse that received the top honor in our sport was consistent throughout the year, winning five of six races, including three Grade 1 races. He placed on all three surfaces during the year in stakes competition (turf, dirt, synthetic) and won the Breeders’ Cup Mile to culminate the year. It was a tough decision to edge out Triple Crown threat I’ll Have Another, but the Derby champ’s season ended in mid-May and looking at the full body of work over the course of the year, I gave Wise Dan the nod. I placed Groupie Doll third behind I’ll Have Another.

Two-Year-Old Male: Shanghai Bobby.  After winning the Hopeful (G2) at Saratoga, a prestigious race for 2-year-olds, Rosie Napravnik steered the Harlan’s Holiday colt to victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita to easily sew up my vote in this category.

Two-Year Old Filly: Beholder.  It was a ding-dong matchup with Executiveprivilege in this category, wherein the two fillies met five times, and Beholder won three of them, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies by a length. The Henny Hughes filly won this won straight up on the track on my ballot.

Three-Year Old Male: I’ll Have Another. He was simply the best of the 3-year-olds in 2012, sweeping the Derby and Preakness before his injury the day before the Belmont. He became the first colt in 23 years to pull off a Santa Anita-Kentucky Derby double. No brainer here.

Three-Year old Filly: Questing. One of the tougher votes I had to cast was selecting Questing over My Miss Aurelia, even though she was beaten by her in the Cotillion on Pennsylvania Derby day at Parx. I gave more credence to the two Grade 1 victories at Saratoga (Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama) then the weight-aided (7 pounds) loss in the Cotillion by a head. Closest call, but the two impressive wins at the Spa turned the tide.

Older Male: Wise Dan. Another category where Fort Larned, Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Whitney champion made enough noise for consideration. But the overall effort for the year was
just more consistent by Dan and we gave our Horse of the Year selection the pick here.

Older Female: Royal Delta. While Groupie Doll made me think twice about this category, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner rebounded from a dull effort in Dubai to win two Grade 1’s and two Grade 2’s to earn my top spot in this category.

Male Sprinter: Trinniberg. The 3-year-old sprinter by Teuflesberg, was simply brilliant all year, topping it off with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint against older horses to solidify my selection. He was dominant in the early Derby trail sprint races and won the Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard.  

Female Sprinter: Groupie Doll. She won five races in a row up through the BC Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita.  She won the nearby Grade 1 Presque Isle Downs Masters in Erie down the Thruway in early September. Her connections showed their gumption by trying her against the boys in the Cigar Mile in November where she was nipped in a photo by Stay Thirsty. She’s the female sprint champ in this corner.  

Male Turf  Horse: Little Mike. In an odd scenario, I actually went with Little Mike over Wise Dan (ever so slightly) and Point of Entry based on his three Grade 1 wins in the Turf Classic at Churchill, the Arlington Million and the Breeders’ Cup Turf (over Point of Entry). Both Wise Dan and Point of Entry had excellent turf resumes  and I logically could have voted for any of the three.  

Female Turf Horse: Zagora. She won five of her eight races of 2012, including the big one, the BC Filly and Mare Turf. While she was beaten by Winter Memories in the Diana at the Spa, I thought her overall body of work was superior with the Breeders’ Cup win putting her over the top.

Human Categories.  The other human categories went as follows for me: Owner (John Oxley), Breeder (Darley), Jockey (Ramon Dominguez), Apprentice Jockey (Irad Ortiz, Jr.) and Trainer (Todd Pletcher).

I abstained from the Steeplechase category, one that I did not follow during the year and did not feel right casting a vote not studying the category during the year.

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets @EquiSpace.

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About Sports, Ink

Budd Bailey

Budd Bailey has served in a variety of roles in Buffalo sports in the past 35 years, including reporter, talk-show host, baseball announcer, public relations staffer and author. He covers the Bandits and running for The News when not working as an editor.

@WDX2BB | bbailey@buffnews.com

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