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Entering June and Hurricane Season

Be happy Buffalonians.

We're entering June and weather is getting nothing but better for us. But for our friends down south, tomorrow is hurricane season. There's already been a slight scare with the chance of a tropical depression hitting Florida. That depression, name Alma, already hit Nicaragua and dissipated.

I'm a survivor of Hurricane Andrew. I was 5 years-old when it destroyed my house ... while my family and I were inside. Bad memories, bad weather. There's nothing I will miss about Florida hurricane seasons. Dealing with 20 inches of snow and cabin fever is great in comparison.

If you hate the slight cold chills we're getting, I want you to sit back and think about those hurricane preparations you don't have to do. Buying water, canned goods, generators, wood to put over your windows, hurricane shutters can get exhausting and expensive.

--- Natalie Morera 

The long-range forecast

A colleague forwarded a link from an interesting post he saw on Stephen J. Dubner's Freakonomics page of the New York Times web site about the accuracy of TV weather forecasts.

Dubner's guest blogger was a Kansas City man who, along with his young daughter and other family members, did a 220-day survey of how reliable the forecasts were for daily high temperatures and precipitation.

His general conclusion, not surprisingly, was that the forecasts were pretty accurate for the short-term and not so accurate beyond that.

"We have no idea what’s going to happen beyond three days out," one weatherman is quoted as saying, which dovetails roughly with what most meteorologists I've talked with say when asked about long-range forecasting.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Cold nights

It got down to 42 degrees this morning at the Weather Service's offices near the Buffalo Niagara International Airport.

That's nowhere near the record for the date, 34 degrees, set way back in 1889, but it's a full 10 degrees below the average for the date.

Another cold overnight is shaping up, with temperatures in the Buffalo area dropping to the mid-40s. It will get warmer Friday but the warmth looks to be accompanied by precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Weather worth remembering on Memorial Day

The last I posted we were anticipating some warmer weather. The sun went away as fast as it came.

Every Memorial Day I can remember in Florida involved barbecues and rain. This one was actually clear, sunny and had a nice breeze, which still made me cold enough for a jacket. I definitely looked like the odd-woman-out in Elmwood Village. What can I say? I'm a Floridian.

Monday was beautiful and Tuesday was the polar opposite - seriously, polar. Buffalo had a high of 66 and a low of 43, but with the wind and cloudy conditions I never got to feel the high. Yesterday's weather was better than that of the same day in 1969 where they had a record low of 36. Personally, I would have preferred the record high of 1978, a hot 89.

Thankfully Wednesday has been a mix of both conditions. Cool weather and a bright sun. Tonight will have clear skies with a low of 44 and tomorrow looks promising with a sunny high of 68. Enjoy the sun, I know I will.

--- Natalie Morera
    News intern

New York State of Shock

One thousand four hundred miles and a 50 point temperature drop later, I'm in Buffalo.

I'm originally from Miami, Fla. and I came to the Buffalo News to be a reporting intern. When I came up for the initial interview my future co-workers told me to ignore the 20 inches of snow in front of my hotel door as they bragged about the warm summer weather. I've arrived to find it doesn't exist - at least not this week.

For the first time in my life, I'm jealous of my friends and family in Florida who are sporting sleeveless shirts and shorts, while I have three layers of sweaters and thermal underwear on.

On the literal brighter (and warmer) side, today begins a streak of hotter weather. Today will be a high of 54 and it will gradually get warmer hitting the big high of 71 on Monday. Give your winter coat a break and enjoy the warm weather on this Memorial Day weekend!

--- Natalie Morera

Isn't it the end of May?

"Isn't it the end of May?"

That's the question I heard last night from a friend of mine, a Buffalo native recently returned home after his sophomore year at college.

He asked me that as we stood around and watched a softball game in Kenmore. At 7:15 p.m. game time, the temperature was 46 degrees. A slight breeze and a fine mist in the air made it feel 10 degrees cooler. It wasn't exactly the start to summer that a young student dreams of as he puts in that last push before final exams.

My guess is it won't be long before he remembers the chill fondly.

He's headed to Tampa for most of the summer.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Chill out

Even at noon, the temperature struggled to exceed the mid-40s throughout most of Western New York Wednesday, 15 to 20 degrees below what we normally get this time of the year.

The artic air mass responsible for the cold is expected to slowly slide past us Thursday, with temperatures warming slightly as the day goes on.

The Memorial Day weekend is looking promising, with temperatures around 70 and sunny skies forecast for both Saturday and Sunday.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Weather Service open house

A three-ring circus is not in the works, but the National Weather Service is breaking out the tents for its fourth open house this year on Saturday, June 8, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. at its office, 587 Aero Drive, Cheektowaga.

Meteorologist-in-charge Tom Niziol says there will be 10 tents covering a variety of topics, including a kid's discovery tent and a visit from historical re-enacter Bob Gilbert, who portrays General Albert J. Myer, first director of the weather service who lived much of his life here.

The weather service office itself has undergone a pretty radical transformation, so if you've been to past open houses, things will look different this time.

For more information, call the weather service at 565-0204.

--- John F. Bonfatti