The Weather Vein

What a difference a weekend makes

   Last weekend was as glorious as it gets around here in the spring.
   

   This weekend will be pretty much the opposite.

   In fact, the National Weather Service forecast says that with temperatures Sunday some 10 to 12 degrees below normal, there's a chance that a few snowflakes will fill the air. With high pressure building in during the evening, temperatures during the overnight Sunday-Monday should dip below freezing.

   High pressure also means sunshine during the day Monday, although temperatures will remain below normal. That high pressure is expected to dominate the weather early next week, with daytime highs reaching into the 50s and even possibly the 60s by midweek.

--- John F. Bonfatti

A Break for the Better

   Any clouds in your neighborhood this morning should quickly give way to clear and sunny skies for today and Sunday, when high temperatures will climb to around 60 degrees

   It's the beginning of what looks like a great period of early spring weather, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures for the first three days of the work week should in the high- to mid-50s, with a good deal of sun and very little precipitation.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Whirlwind

A strong storm system this week spawned a tornado that flattened an antique store and gas station in Buffalo.

That's the Buffalo in Missouri, not our fair city. We don't get tornadoes, right?

Wrong, as the current issue of The Lake Breeze, the newsletter of Buffalo's National Weather Service points out.

From 1950 to 2007, there have been 103 tornadoes that have hit the area forecast by the Buffalo weather office, which includes Western New York and a stretch across northern New York to the Adirondacks.

Five deaths, 44 injuries and more than $35 million in property damage were caused by these twisters, according to Judith Levan, a meteorologist, who coordinates weather warnings.

The worst here, an F4 classification, touched down near the town of Clymer in Chautauqua County and left a 28 mile swatch of damage. There were no deaths, but plenty of downed trees and damaged buildings.

Have you lived through a tornado? Did you hear a freight train?

--- Michael Beebe

Here and Gone

Hope you enjoyed the bright sunshine that graced most of Western New York for a good part of Wednesday.

The next mention of sun in the National Weather Service forecast isn't until Monday, when the forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and a high around 40 degrees.

Until then ... yuck. Words like "rain," "freezing rain," "flurries" and "snow showers" dominate the forecasts for the next several days.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Buffalo Weather Center meet and greet

Just a quick reminder: at noon today, at the Market Arcade, 617 Main Street, the folks trying to put together a weather science center on the downtown waterfront are having a "meet-and-greet" for those interested in participating in the effort or just finding out more about it.

It will be a working lunch; bring a brown bag. There will be beverages provided, though.

--- John F. Bonfatti

More snow ahead?

The National Weather Service Thursday afternoon issued yet another winter storm watch for Friday afternoon through Sunday.

A low-pressure system tracking from the south will spread mostly snow across Western New York. The watch indicates "some locations could see up to a foot of snow by daybreak Sunday."

According to AccuWeather.com meteorologist Jim Andrews, "Strengthening of the storm over the Northeast Saturday could make for a blizzard in an area of northern Ohio, far western New York and southern Ontario."

--- John F. Bonfatti

Buffalo Weather Experience Center

   In the best spirit of turning what some perceive as a negative into a positive, people have floated the idea of Buffalo hosting a museum about weather for many years.

   It looks maybe like it might be coming to fruition, and the people behind the Buffalo Weather Experience Center are inviting anyone who is interested to get on board.

   The center's Board of Directors is hosting a "meet-and-greet" from noon to 1 p.m. Friday in the Market Arcade, 617 Main St.

   The plan is to build a state-of-the-art weather science center on the city's waterfront. There will be a presentation on the initiative, a progress report and artists renderings. Beverages will be served but folks are asked to bring a brown bag lunch. Street parking is available on Washington Street.

---John F. Bonfatti

Looking back

The October Surprise snow storm of 2006 gets top billing in a recent Weatherwise article talking about the top national snow events of the 2006-2007 winter.

Only the first few paragraphs of the article reviewing the snow season are available online to non-subscribers, but in that opening, the first thing mentioned is the unseasonable nature of "a tree-toppling event with more than 20 inches of snow near Buffalo, New York, in mid-October."

The article is in the magazine's annual Almanac issue, which looks back at the weather year past. The main article, which is available in its entirety on the site, is a comprehensive, but not particularly long look at the world's most notable weather events of 2007.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Heaviest Snowfall North and East

   Hard to believe as snow fills the air throughout Western New York, but we'll escape the heaviest hit from this jumbo-sized storm.

   As the storm sweeps toward New England and eastern Canada, the heavier snowfalls will be to the north and east of us. Some spots in Northern New York are forecast to get up to 16 inches, while some of the mountain areas in northern New England could see more than two feet.

   In downtown Buffalo at mid-afternoon, there looked to be about three inches on the ground. Snow into the night is supposed to add another three to five inches, although forecast models indicate there could be some lake effect off Lake Ontario tomorrow afternoon. The models place most of that snow east of Rochester.

--- John F. Bonfatti

Flood Outlook

The National Weather Service on Friday issued its latest bi-weekly flood outlook for the area, which is calling for near normal conditions over the next few weeks.

In general, snow coverage was thin and snow water content below normal in Western New York. We've had frequent changes from cold to mild this winter, and as a result, the ground frost level is not too deep (six inches to a foot).

The outlook predicts a continuation of the hot-and-cold weather we've had this winter, with long periods of below normal temperatures punctuated by brief warm-ups with mixed precipitation or rain.

-- John F. Bonfatti